Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

Where is this system you ask? Entangling with the ever so El Nino favored Aleutian low spinning over the Aleutians islands. There's a big 500mb block that has just settled over the Beaufort Sea north of it.



We've been ignoring this low pressure feature, believe it was down in the low 940s or upper 930s recently.

000
FXAK68 PAFC 030209
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

The dominant feature across the region is a large 940 mb low just
south of the central Aleutians this afternoon will cross into the
Bering Sea overnight into Wednesday morning. This low will linger
for most of the remainder of the week in the eastern Bering Sea
before dissipating on Friday. This pattern will maintain mild,
southeasterly flow moving into Southcentral Alaska.

[rwfromkansas]

I am noticing the colors in the attached part to Canada coming in warmer with each run (not as deep a blue etc.). Is that a concern? Still looks like a good feeding of cold into the storm for now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Does Austin have a chance at seeing any wintry weather?

Late January and February. Not any time in the next 2.5 weeks.

[Iceresistance]

Where is this system you ask? Entangling with the ever so El Nino favored Aleutian low spinning over the Aleutians islands. There's a big 500mb block that has just settled over the Beaufort Sea north of it.

https://i.imgur.com/1LOKxEY.gif

We've been ignoring this low pressure feature, believe it was down in the low 940s or upper 930s recently.

I had a pro-met mention that Christmas 2009 had the northern stream link up with the southern trough that produced the blizzard and right now, it appears more zonal. Didn't the models in 2009 not expect the northern jet stream to link up with the southern trough?

[Ntxw]

Where is this system you ask? Entangling with the ever so El Nino favored Aleutian low spinning over the Aleutians islands. There's a big 500mb block that has just settled over the Beaufort Sea north of it.

https://i.imgur.com/1LOKxEY.gif

We've been ignoring this low pressure feature, believe it was down in the low 940s or upper 930s recently.

I had a pro-met mention that Christmas 2009 had the northern stream link up with the southern trough that produced the blizzard and right now, it appears more zonal. Didn't the models in 2009 not expect the northern jet stream to link up with the southern trough?

This deepening system is a result of the northern branch and STJ converging. It's possible it may cutoff from the flow after but that's the same thing that happened in the model runs leading up to the 09 blizzard. Only the cold northern side was depicted for snow but the storm said no in real time. Abilene, Graham, WF woke up to a bonafide blizzard. Deepening systems are tough to predict because of track and their ability to pull back qpf much more than a typical event.

[orangeblood]

Some really anomalous 500mb projections showing up next week across the Northern Hemisphere...this storm early next week is going to set off a dramatic pattern change. Prep now, extremes are on the table!!!!

This setup below could lead to another winter storm late next week/weekend

[Stratton23]

Incredible blocking signature! This is going to be a heck of a wild ride going forward

[Ntxw]

Incredible blocking signature! This is going to be a heck of a wild ride going forward

519dm over the central rockies. Central Canada moved locations .

[WacoWx]

Great. I'll be in Montana skiing that day.

[orangeblood]

Great. I'll be in Montana skiing that day.

We're skiing in Colorado next weeknd....Resorts may close if this comes close to fruition. January Rockies skiing is always a risk this time of year!

[orangeblood]

Great. I'll be in Montana skiing that day.

Projected Euro Montana temps next Saturday morning

[Stratton23]

Jeez 40-50 below normal anomalies compared to average on the euro, thats some serious cold

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Incredible blocking signature! This is going to be a heck of a wild ride going forward

519dm over the central rockies. Central Canada moved locations .

Lapse rates over the rockies will be very steep with that low. This is how you get big convective snowstorms, or thundersnow events in high elevated areas.

[Ntxw]

Incredible blocking signature! This is going to be a heck of a wild ride going forward

519dm over the central rockies. Central Canada moved locations .

Lapse rates over the rockies will be very steep with that low. This is how you get big convective snowstorms, or thundersnow events in high elevated areas.

Yep. Just crazy. When the 510s dip into the US anywhere, we're usually experiencing some kind of Arctic blast. The last being December 2022. But yeah several weeks ago the signs were saying interior west was going to experience some kind big event.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Great. I'll be in Montana skiing that day.

We're skiing in Colorado next weeknd....Resorts may close if this comes close to fruition. January Rockies skiing is always a risk this time of year!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/west/t2%20m_f_anom/1704283200/1705147200-0WhMWwTaedM.png

As CEO of the Rocky Mountain sector in this forum, I think youll be fine, as long as the winds aren't ridiculous.

[orangeblood]

Great. I'll be in Montana skiing that day.

We're skiing in Colorado next weeknd....Resorts may close if this comes close to fruition. January Rockies skiing is always a risk this time of year!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/west/t2%20m_f_anom/1704283200/1705147200-0WhMWwTaedM.png

As CEO of the Rocky Mountain sector in this forum, I think youll be fine, as long as the winds aren't ridiculous.

Apparent temperatures factoring in wind chill...no thanks!! This looks like Greenland Central Basin Glacier temp profiles, insane!

[Stratton23]

Holy moly! I love the cold, but man i couldnt handle those kind of feels like temps

[Ntxw]

Greenland may be warmer with that huge -NAO.

[Portastorm]

Is it time to start paying attention?

[gpsnowman]

Is it time to start paying attention?

Nice to see you posting again! Yes I believe it is time to start paying attention. That large swath of Barney purple has mine. And the monster storm next week. Good times and good posts today.