Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Texas2Florida]

With the Arctic Oscillation literally tanking off the charts now and a moderate-to-strong El Nino in place, there are some close analogs/comparisons to the winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78.

I know in northeastern Ohio, those were brutal periods of very cold and sometimes stormy weather. For you native Texans, please forgive me ... I got down here as quick as I could (1984) ... but what were those winters like in Texas?

Well I believe it was pretty cold here, I do know that Jan 1977 was the last time snow fell in Miami Beach..if that tells you anything.

[snow and ice]

With the Arctic Oscillation literally tanking off the charts now and a moderate-to-strong El Nino in place, there are some close analogs/comparisons to the winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78.

I know in northeastern Ohio, those were brutal periods of very cold and sometimes stormy weather. For you native Texans, please forgive me ... I got down here as quick as I could (1984) ... but what were those winters like in Texas?

The winters of 76-77 were know more for their cold than winter precipitation in the south, although there were several winter weather events. Also, most of the cold was on the front end of the winter(November-first half of January).

However, the winter of 77-78 was the holy grail of winters if you like snow and ice. The cold really didn't start until December. November was rather mild like the one we just experienced. The first week of January began what would be an incredible 12 snow and ice events in Texarkana that would end in mid March. We hand an winter event 8 straight Wednesday's in a row. Texarkana went one 17 day period without getting above freezing. That record stands today. Speaking of records, the other night Texarkana broke a record low(22) that was set in December of 1977. Could be omen of things to come.

[snow and ice]

With the Arctic Oscillation literally tanking off the charts now and a moderate-to-strong El Nino in place, there are some close analogs/comparisons to the winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78.

I know in northeastern Ohio, those were brutal periods of very cold and sometimes stormy weather. For you native Texans, please forgive me ... I got down here as quick as I could (1984) ... but what were those winters like in Texas?

The winters of 76-77 were know more for their cold than winter precipitation in the south, although there were several winter weather events. Also, most of the cold was on the front end of the winter(November-first half of January).

However, the winter of 77-78 was the holy grail of winters if you like snow and ice. The cold really didn't start until December. November was rather mild like the one we just experienced. The first week of January began what would be an incredible 12 snow and ice events in Texarkana that would end in mid March. We hand an winter event 8 straight Wednesday's in a row. Texarkana went one 17 day period without getting above freezing. That record stands today. Speaking of records, the other night Texarkana broke a record low(22) that was set in December of 1977. Could be omen of things to come.

To add a little more. I just went and looked at some maps and analogs of the 77-78 winter. You could paste the long range output of the Ensembles over them, and you couldn't tell any difference. Business is fixin to pickup in a big way here in a couple weeks.

[Portastorm]

Nice research snow and ice! Very nice!

That data gives me a lot more hope than banking on operational runs of the GFS.

Looks like we all are going to have a lot to talk about it the last half of this month (and beyond).

[srainhoutx]

GFS continues to show an impressive system around Christmas and the days that follow. The first push of colder air arrives near the 20th and and stronger fronts follow as a nice 1048mb Arctic High Pressure drives straight S into S Central TX.

[gofrogs]

well it lost the storm for the dfw area

[wxgirl69]

:uarrow:
GFS continues to show an impressive system around Christmas and the days that follow. The first push of colder air arrives near the 20th and and stronger fronts follow as a nice 1048mb Arctic High Pressure drives straight S into S Central TX.

You are singing my favorite song... LOL

[iorange55]

well it lost the storm for the dfw area

Not at all really when it's that far out you just want to make sure the trend is still there, and it is. It still shows really cold air, and it has the heaviest precip south, but there is really no way to predict where most of the precip will be, or if we'll even have any at all.


The trend still looks great though.

[attallaman]

well it lost the storm for the dfw area

Not at all really when it's that far out you just want to make sure the trend is still there, and it is. It still shows really cold air, and it has the heaviest precip south, but there is really no way to predict where most of the precip will be, or if we'll even have any at all.


The trend still looks great though.

So this far out it's still too early to say if there'll be any form of winter precip or not but you're saying that the temps will be much colder than normal? How far south will this next system of very cold arctic air make its way south, as far south as my area, the MS Gulf Coast or not? It's nasty here today, cold, temperatures in the upper 40's with some wind and lots of rain. What's the ideal set up for lots of snow? Cold air needs to move in first followed by lots of rain or is it the other way around? Lots of rain move in first followed by very cold air? While Houston was getting lots of snow recently it was very cold here but nothing but rain, very little snow.

[Ntxw]

well it lost the storm for the dfw area

Not at all really when it's that far out you just want to make sure the trend is still there, and it is. It still shows really cold air, and it has the heaviest precip south, but there is really no way to predict where most of the precip will be, or if we'll even have any at all.


The trend still looks great though.

So this far out it's still too early to say if there'll be any form of winter precip or not but you're saying that the temps will be much colder than normal? How far south will this next system of very cold arctic air make its way south, as far south as my area, the MS Gulf Coast or not? It's nasty here today, cold, temperatures in the upper 40's with some wind and lots of rain. What's the ideal set up for lots of snow? Cold air needs to move in first followed by lots of rain or is it the other way around? Lots of rain move in first followed by very cold air? While Houston was getting lots of snow recently it was very cold here but nothing but rain, very little snow.

The computer models for the past several runs have consistently painted very cold air coming through early Christmas week. In the gulf coast it is very difficult to generate snow. Usually the ideal condition would be that cold air comes through and precip starts as rain but would then slowly change over to snow. Not very often in the deep south does it truly start out as snow.

[iorange55]

So this far out it's still too early to say if there'll be any form of winter precip or not but you're saying that the temps will be much colder than normal? How far south will this next system of very cold arctic air make its way south, as far south as my area, the MS Gulf Coast or not? It's nasty here today, cold, temperatures in the upper 40's with some wind and lots of rain. What's the ideal set up for lots of snow? Cold air needs to move in first followed by lots of rain or is it the other way around? Lots of rain move in first followed by very cold air? While Houston was getting lots of snow recently it was very cold here but nothing but rain, very little snow.

Yes it looks pretty likely sometime around Christmas the temps will take a nose dive it's still too early to say how cold, but it certainly looks below normal. It would make it all the way down there, yes. I'm not sure what the ideal set up for down there would be I'd imagine it'd be what has happened the past two years for Houston, and Louisiana. A very strong low mixing in with some cold air from what I've read it's tough to get cold cold cold air down there, and precip at the same time, so you need a little help like with the strong cold upper level low. As of now though it's showing such a strong force of cold air that there wouldn't be a need for that. I'd look for a strong upper level low moving across the coast though, but of course if it did get as cold as it's showing then the easiest way would be just to squeeze out some moisture from a little disturbance while the cold air is in place.

[gboudx]

You all can blame me for the model runs showing the arctic air and possible precip holding off until about Christmas. I'm -removed- hard for nice weather until we get back from Nawlins on the 23rd.

[Ntxw]

You all can blame me for the model runs showing the arctic air and possible precip holding off until about Christmas. I'm -removed- hard for nice weather until we get back from Nawlins on the 23rd.

Darn you!!! Jk you're not the only one -removed- for pleasant travel weather

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF for December 22nd...

[snow and ice]

ECMWF for December 22nd...

From the analogs and what I've read from some very respected long rang forecasters on another board, this could be one of those once in a 30 year or so type of winters east of the rockies. The perfect storm winter that rarely occurs if you will. No, I'm not prone to hyperbole. Generally, I'm very cynical of these types of things.

[srainhoutx]

There are many of us that watch weather patterns in the "Longer Range". You are a respected member snow and ice, so I certainly understand where you are coming from. Those of us that track such Winter Weather events like Tropical Weather folks do in the summer months, are sitting back and watching all the "players" coming together for a pattern that has not been seen for many years. We will see, but it will be an "interesting time" for sure.

[Ntxw]

I've compared the trends so far this year and the past few since the really cold one in 2000. So far (at least for the Dfw area) it's been really chilly relative to many of the previous. Im not saying this will continue but even during the warmth we had in November, temps did not nearly get as warm as last November, where I recall a few cold spells.

[ETXHAMXYL]

I remember the 77-78. All I can say is the ice storms were felt in Sept with lots of babies born in the NTX area. LOL We had some major ice storms around the 1st of Jan those years with lots of snows.
I'd love to have snow for my birthday on the 24th of Dec. and for it to carry over till Jan. 1st. That would be awesome!!! Hope the patterns and trends for this to happen here in NTX/ETX continue.

[srainhoutx]

I know we have all been "Dreaming of a Christmas", but the WFO's across TX continue to trend down temps as well as some potential over running with the Monday/Tuesday Cold Front. Midland/Odessa had some interesting thoughts today...

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND ADJACENT AZ/NM VICINITY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...AND WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWFA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FORECAST NUMBERS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS NUMBERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN
THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE MUCH
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED 1037+ MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED VERY COLD AIRMASSES VERY WELL AS OF
LATE...SO THE FORECAST NUMBERS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY COULD
BE OPTIMISTIC. CURRENT EXTENDED PROGS SUGGEST MODIFICATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED PACKAGE
LOOKED VERY REASONABLE AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

[Ntxw]

18z gfs and it's parallel continue to advertise cold and some sort of a winter storm for Texas (not that I like the 6z and 18z runs that much) and the rest of the south. This has consistently been true for quite a few runs now, I'd bet that somebody in Texas will get a good dose of winter weather between Christmas and New Years.