Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

12z Euro shows possible winter weather for parts of central/south Texas by midweek!

Can you post a link for that run of the Euro? Thanks!

Link (look at hrs 120 and 144):
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[WacoWx]

12z Euro shows possible winter weather for parts of central/south Texas by midweek!

ding ding ding! i'm back on board!

[Ntxw]

It is my concern, after reviewing multiple models (and runs) that we could be looking at a sleet / (elevated) freezing rain event Sunday across North Texas.

Different level thickness and "warm" slots above the 850 (further south) could give a setup that will allow for heavier sleet or even freezing rain on elevated items (trees/power lines).

Am I the only one seeing this?

Basham

Most of the models have (soundings) <540 thickness for DFW. The low will generate cold air aloft and the surface is pretty close to freezing. Perhaps it could change, but at this time there's no real indication of an ice event here in NTX.

[Snowman67]

12z Euro shows possible winter weather for parts of central/south Texas by midweek!

Can you post a link for that run of the Euro? Thanks!

Link (look at hrs 120 and 144):
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Thanks Porta!

[johnbasham]

It is my concern, after reviewing multiple models (and runs) that we could be looking at a sleet / (elevated) freezing rain event Sunday across North Texas.

Different level thickness and "warm" slots above the 850 (further south) could give a setup that will allow for heavier sleet or even freezing rain on elevated items (trees/power lines).

Am I the only one seeing this?

Basham

Most of the models have (soundings) <540 thickness for DFW. The low will generate cold air aloft and the surface is pretty close to freezing. Perhaps it could change, but at this time there's no real indication of an ice event here in NTX.

Hmmmm..... The projected soundings I am looking at show "slots" adjacent to the low that have areas aloft at 1c then falling back to below 0c at 850 and back above at the sfc....

Maybe I'll check with the HPC too.

Basham

[txagwxman]

Canadian cold enough...UKMET isn't.

[Ntxw]

Hmmmm..... The projected soundings I am looking at show "slots" adjacent to the low that have areas aloft at 1c then falling back to below 0c at 850 and back above at the sfc....

Maybe I'll check with the HPC too.

Basham

I haven't really dug deep into it yet about that, you might be right. I'm taking the word of txagwxman on this one regarding soundings.

Btw which soundings are you looking? Ec/Canadian/GFS/Nam?

[johnbasham]

Hmmmm..... The projected soundings I am looking at show "slots" adjacent to the low that have areas aloft at 1c then falling back to below 0c at 850 and back above at the sfc....

Maybe I'll check with the HPC too.

Basham

I haven't really dug deep into it yet about that, you might be right. I'm taking the word of txagwxman on this one regarding soundings.

Here's a look from HPC:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impact ... us_f69.gif

Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

[txagwxman]

and midweek a weak disturbance...sleet.

[Portastorm]

I'll take sleet. Not picky here!

[txagwxman]

Hmmmm..... The projected soundings I am looking at show "slots" adjacent to the low that have areas aloft at 1c then falling back to below 0c at 850 and back above at the sfc....

Maybe I'll check with the HPC too.

Basham

I haven't really dug deep into it yet about that, you might be right. I'm taking the word of txagwxman on this one regarding soundings.

Btw which soundings are you looking? Ec/Canadian/GFS/Nam?

Don't have soundings from Euro...but 2m temps are 32F in Plano/Dallas 34F FTW Sunday noon, and 850 mb temps are -1C to -2C.

[txtiff]

I'll take sleet. Not picky here!

You crack me up

[Brandon8181]

It is my concern, after reviewing multiple models (and runs) that we could be looking at a sleet / (elevated) freezing rain event Sunday across North Texas.

Different level thickness and "warm" slots above the 850 (further south) could give a setup that will allow for heavier sleet or even freezing rain on elevated items (trees/power lines).

Am I the only one seeing this?

Basham

I was seeing the same thing, and I agree with this; however, I do not think the ice event will be major. I think sleet /frz rain will quickly change over to snow.

Good thoughts though.

[johnbasham]

Hmmmm..... The projected soundings I am looking at show "slots" adjacent to the low that have areas aloft at 1c then falling back to below 0c at 850 and back above at the sfc....

Maybe I'll check with the HPC too.

Basham

I haven't really dug deep into it yet about that, you might be right. I'm taking the word of txagwxman on this one regarding soundings.

Btw which soundings are you looking? Ec/Canadian/GFS/Nam?

Don't have soundings from Euro...but 2m temps are 32F in Plano/Dallas 34F FTW Sunday noon, and 850 mb temps are -1C to -2C.

I see the same, but look at a band of the atmosphere from Just northwest of Waco stretching toward Tyler. Interesting in the Sunday overnight when moisture still in place in models with 850 temps from 1c to 4c with surface temps at or below 0c.

Just makes me nervous, especially with temps above 850 level well below 0c in association with upr low. so it comes down to depth of that shallow layer of overrunning warm air at the 850.

Looking at GFS and modified NAM.

Basham

[johnbasham]

BTW - Here is a copy of the snow forecast map (pops) we issued to our clients today at noon.

http://www.stormspotter.com/Snow-Forecast.png

Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

[Ntxw]

Pro met alert! You should message one of the Admins Johnbasham for the title!

[johnbasham]

Pro met alert! You should message one of the Admins Johnbasham for the title!

Thanks. Will do.

Basham

[Ntxw]

I just looked at the EURO in depth on the Accupro site and starting out yeah, I can see the concern, but it quickly changes over to snow with 540 thickness well to the south of DFW as the heaviest precip passes by. Soundings shows well below 0c from top to bottom at hour 54.

[Portastorm]

BTW - Here is a copy of the snow forecast map (pops) we issued to our clients today at noon.

http://www.stormspotter.com/Snow-Forecast.png

Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

BTW, since I'm not sure if it has been officially done yet, welcome aboard! It is always great to have a pro met on with us and we have valued your posts already. I'm sure there will be more to come. Thanks for sharing!

[johnbasham]

I just looked at the EURO in depth on the Accupro site and starting out yeah, I can see the concern, but it quickly changes over to snow with 540 thickness well to the south of DFW as the heaviest precip passes by.

Thanks for the feedback.

BTW- I've been watching the conversation of both pro mets and amateurs on here over the last few days, and I've been VERY impressed with the overall level of knowledge of this group.

I've been even more impressed with your willingness to share the knowledge and teach "newbies" who are just learning the science of something they have always had passion for.

KUDOS to the group.