Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gboudx]

Anyone see the 12Z GEM for next week?

No. Summary?

[dhweather]

With the DFW radar lighting up, I hope we don't start icing up already. The commute this evening could be bad.

It's gonna be close - temps just above freezing in Dallas county. If temps drop just a few degrees, bridges will become treacherous. I suspect that roads will be ok regardless because ground temps are still warm.


The Rockwall ISD just cancelled all after-school activities today.

[dhweather]

Message from Rockwall ISD

Evening Activities Cancelled

In anticipation of severe weather, all evening and after school activities will be cancelled except for R.O.C.K After School Care and after school tutoring.

We will continue to monitor the weather and road conditions. Information on any closures or delays for tomorrow will be made available by 6 a.m. tomorrow morning.

Our goal is to ensure the safety of all of our students and staff.

[Annie Oakley]

Ya'll are scaring me.....I keep thinking Jack Nicholson is gonna appear any moment

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Anyone see the 12Z GEM for next week?

No. Summary?

It's hinting at a coastal-low developing across Texas. Has a nice deformation zone across north Texas. This would be around Wednesday/Thursday.

[gboudx]

With the DFW radar lighting up, I hope we don't start icing up already. The commute this evening could be bad.

It's gonna be close - temps just above freezing in Dallas county. If temps drop just a few degrees, bridges will become treacherous. I suspect that roads will be ok regardless because ground temps are still warm.


The Rockwall ISD just cancelled all after-school activities today.

Oh thank God for that cancellation. My son had an orchestra concert tonight and I was dreading having to drive there and back. It was only at Utley, but still. I monitor the Weatherbug at Grace Hartman ES near my house and it's been at 32 all day.

[downsouthman1]

The dewpoints are so low under the precip shield out in west TX.

[TexasStorm]

With the DFW radar lighting up, I hope we don't start icing up already. The commute this evening could be bad.

It's gonna be close - temps just above freezing in Dallas county. If temps drop just a few degrees, bridges will become treacherous. I suspect that roads will be ok regardless because ground temps are still warm.


The Rockwall ISD just cancelled all after-school activities today.

If you want to see what might happen in Dallas later pay attention to Wichita Falls which has been under freezing for awhile and appear to be getting rain (freezing rain) on radar returns. But if you look at the road cams for Wichita Falls it is falling as just rain right now. Roads wet but not frozen.

[Ellsey]

Well I don't have any fancy equipment, but my old school outside thermometer is showing us at a smidge below the freezing mark. How's that for scientific precision?

[Texashawk]

Some of the rural reporting stations are now reporting 33-35 degrees near the B/CS area. 35 was the predicted low through tomorrow for that area.

[Tejas89]

If you want to see what might happen in Dallas later pay attention to Wichita Falls which has been under freezing for awhile and appear to be getting rain (freezing rain) on radar returns. But if you look at the road cams for Wichita Falls it is falling as just rain right now. Roads wet but not frozen.

Exactly.. it's going to take more than 30-32 for surface streets. Hopefully the system moves through so quickly it will be a bridges-only event in the morning (bad enough).

[sooner101]

Family up in Lawton, Oklahoma area are saying the roads are bad already up there and cars are slipping and sliding all over.

[vbhoutex]

Katy now reporting 49 degrees. Waller in mid-40's. These temperatures are dropping FAST!!! And the dew points are dropping into the 30's already at many of the NW Houston-area stations.

52f and continuing a steady drop at my house in the Spring Branch area of Houston. Front came in stronger and earlier than predicted and I don't expect that to change as the day progresses if what we are experiencing now is an indicator. Kicker may be if we get any rain of note that starts falling through the air column and wetting it up and cooling down the warm layers. Anyone have an takes on that happening?

[dhweather]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Thursday, 5 December 2013 11:28 CST

Good morning,

This will be a shorter e-mail than our previous ones, given that the event is about to unfold before us. We remain quite confident that a significant winter storm will begin affecting most of North Texas, beginning this afternoon, and continuing through Sunday. The cold air is here - with even colder readings on the way. The other key ingredient is precipitation, and this will be overspreading the region this afternoon and tonight. By Friday morning, we expect widespread impacts across the area, and these will persist in different proportions through the weekend and early next week. A short PDF is attached.

BOTTOM LINE

A winter storm will begin developing across western north Texas this afternoon, start impacting the I-20/I-30 corridors this evening, and affect nearly all of the remainder of north and central Texas tonight and early Friday. The worst impacts - from the standpoint of both travel and power outages - will occur in the counties along and close to the Red River. However, significant travel disruptions and some power impacts are also expected along the I-20 and I-30 corridors....and to a somewhat lesser degree in the counties east and south of the Metroplex.

Public works, transportation officials, and school officials should be aware of the potential for widespread areas of ice and/or sleet. Power outages are also likely in many areas. Emergency management and elected officials should be prepared for a two or three day period of winter weather impacts.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN

See the attached graphics for a better depiction of the area of the expected hazards.

Rain: Everywhere

Freezing Rain / Ice: Cooke, Grayson and Fannin Counties will see the worst of it, with areas of Wise, Denton, Collin, and Lamar Counties will likely receive significant impacts. Otherwise, everyone along and north of a Goldthwaite to Cleburne to Sulphur Springs line.

Sleet: Possible, but mainly north of I-20 and west of I-35, mixing in with the freezing rain.

TIMING and IMPACTS

Temperatures throughout most of north Texas will fall into the 20s by daybreak Friday. Upper 20s will be reached in the northwest counties this afternoon, other areas along the Red River and the Metroplex by late afternoon/early evening, and other parts of north Texas during the mid to late evening. We will see several hours of sub-freezing temperatures across north Texas tonight...and most areas will remain below freezing all day Friday and Saturday.

Northwest Counties: Rain begins mid afternoon, begins freezing on bridges/overpasses 3 to 5 pm; all roads and elevated surfaces impacted from evening onward. Total ice accumulations: Up to 1/2 inch.

Gainesville - Sherman: Rain begins mid afternoon, begins freezing on bridges/overpasses 4 to 7 pm; all roads and elevated surfaces impacted from evening onward. Total ice accumulations: Up to 1/2 inch.

Greater DFW Metroplex - Paris: Rain begins late afternoon, begins freezing on bridges/overpasses 6 to 8 pm; all roads and elevated surfaces impacted from late evening onward. Total ice accumulations: 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

Broad band from Comanche to Hillsboro to Sulphur Springs: Rain begins late afternoon/early evening; begins freezing on bridges/overpasses from 8 pm to 11 pm; elevated surfaces and some roads become impacted from Midnight onward.

Total ice accumulations: 1/10" to 1/4 inch.

Areas south of a Goldthwaite to Waco to Canton line: Rain during the evening and continuing past midnight. Some icing on bridges, overpasses, and elevated surfaces after 3 am. Generally less than 1/10th.

It should also be stressed that surface winds will average 10 to 15 mph tonight, with gusts at times to 20 mph. Any stress on trees and lines due to ice will be enhanced by these winds...resulting in a greater potential for power outages.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE

Confidence in the overall system is high. Temperature confidence is moderate to high. Confidence in precipitation totals is high, with a moderate confidence on ice amounts.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: big trouble for big D as temps will drop to and below 32 very quickly as precip starts. Skating rink with some snow on top.

[cheezyWXguy]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Thursday, 5 December 2013 11:28 CST

Good morning,

This will be a shorter e-mail than our previous ones, given that the event is about to unfold before us. We remain quite confident that a significant winter storm will begin affecting most of North Texas, beginning this afternoon, and continuing through Sunday. The cold air is here - with even colder readings on the way. The other key ingredient is precipitation, and this will be overspreading the region this afternoon and tonight. By Friday morning, we expect widespread impacts across the area, and these will persist in different proportions through the weekend and early next week. A short PDF is attached.

BOTTOM LINE

A winter storm will begin developing across western north Texas this afternoon, start impacting the I-20/I-30 corridors this evening, and affect nearly all of the remainder of north and central Texas tonight and early Friday. The worst impacts - from the standpoint of both travel and power outages - will occur in the counties along and close to the Red River. However, significant travel disruptions and some power impacts are also expected along the I-20 and I-30 corridors....and to a somewhat lesser degree in the counties east and south of the Metroplex.

Public works, transportation officials, and school officials should be aware of the potential for widespread areas of ice and/or sleet. Power outages are also likely in many areas. Emergency management and elected officials should be prepared for a two or three day period of winter weather impacts.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN

See the attached graphics for a better depiction of the area of the expected hazards.

Rain: Everywhere

Freezing Rain / Ice: Cooke, Grayson and Fannin Counties will see the worst of it, with areas of Wise, Denton, Collin, and Lamar Counties will likely receive significant impacts. Otherwise, everyone along and north of a Goldthwaite to Cleburne to Sulphur Springs line.

Sleet: Possible, but mainly north of I-20 and west of I-35, mixing in with the freezing rain.

TIMING and IMPACTS

Temperatures throughout most of north Texas will fall into the 20s by daybreak Friday. Upper 20s will be reached in the northwest counties this afternoon, other areas along the Red River and the Metroplex by late afternoon/early evening, and other parts of north Texas during the mid to late evening. We will see several hours of sub-freezing temperatures across north Texas tonight...and most areas will remain below freezing all day Friday and Saturday.

Northwest Counties: Rain begins mid afternoon, begins freezing on bridges/overpasses 3 to 5 pm; all roads and elevated surfaces impacted from evening onward. Total ice accumulations: Up to 1/2 inch.

Gainesville - Sherman: Rain begins mid afternoon, begins freezing on bridges/overpasses 4 to 7 pm; all roads and elevated surfaces impacted from evening onward. Total ice accumulations: Up to 1/2 inch.

Greater DFW Metroplex - Paris: Rain begins late afternoon, begins freezing on bridges/overpasses 6 to 8 pm; all roads and elevated surfaces impacted from late evening onward. Total ice accumulations: 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

Broad band from Comanche to Hillsboro to Sulphur Springs: Rain begins late afternoon/early evening; begins freezing on bridges/overpasses from 8 pm to 11 pm; elevated surfaces and some roads become impacted from Midnight onward.

Total ice accumulations: 1/10" to 1/4 inch.

Areas south of a Goldthwaite to Waco to Canton line: Rain during the evening and continuing past midnight. Some icing on bridges, overpasses, and elevated surfaces after 3 am. Generally less than 1/10th.

It should also be stressed that surface winds will average 10 to 15 mph tonight, with gusts at times to 20 mph. Any stress on trees and lines due to ice will be enhanced by these winds...resulting in a greater potential for power outages.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE

Confidence in the overall system is high. Temperature confidence is moderate to high. Confidence in precipitation totals is high, with a moderate confidence on ice amounts.

this was mentioned before as well, but I am curious as to why their totals are less than half of what the models seem to be suggesting. Can anyone explain why this is?

[dhweather]

Temp holding steady at 35.3 in Heath.

[dhweather]

It's very difficult to predict ice accumulations. If it's a moderate to heavy rain, practically none of it is going to freeze, most will runoff. Water doesn't freeze instantly, it takes times.

A light rain, drizzle for an extended period is where you end up getting in big trouble.

[gboudx]

Here at SE corner 75/Bush, the light rain has frozen on the exposed parking lot lightposts.

[iorange55]

Just got back from Walmart (oh lawd) and I see the temp has dropped a degree at my house. Now it reads 32, I'm not how accurate it is, but it's usually within a degree or two of being right.

The important being that it was sitting at 33/34 degree just an hour or two ago. Temps are going the wrong way.