Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Texas Snow]

NWSFWD not seeing the low move?

Regarding Monday`s upper trough/low, the latest deterministic
medium-range guidance (and their respective ensemble members) have
not shown any notable southward shift or wobble of the track of
the upper level trough. This is noteworthy because the
entrainment of drier air into the departing cyclone should keep
wrap-around winter precip north of the Red River. The probability
of snow south of the Red River will remain closely tied to the
track of the upper level low as a much colder airmass (with
near/below freezing temperatures) will be in place late Monday
into early Tuesday.

[Ntxw]

NWSFWD not seeing the low move?

Regarding Monday`s upper trough/low, the latest deterministic
medium-range guidance (and their respective ensemble members) have
not shown any notable southward shift or wobble of the track of
the upper level trough. This is noteworthy because the
entrainment of drier air into the departing cyclone should keep
wrap-around winter precip north of the Red River. The probability
of snow south of the Red River will remain closely tied to the
track of the upper level low as a much colder airmass (with
near/below freezing temperatures) will be in place late Monday
into early Tuesday.

This is their first AFD even mentioning the S word for anyone . That's actually quite bold this far out.

[orangeblood]

Is it time to start paying attention?

There he is, right on time!!!

[orangeblood]

Another good indicator of this potential big pattern change...check out this Alaskan Heat Wave . Always a great tool for Lower 48 Arctic Outbreaks!

[Texas Snow]

This is their first AFD even mentioning the S word for anyone . That's actually quite bold this far out.

Oh I agree on that. I am just curious what they are looking at since we have seen several ensembles posted on the past few pages moving it south.

[Ntxw]

This is their first AFD even mentioning the S word for anyone . That's actually quite bold this far out.

Oh I agree on that. I am just curious what they are looking at since we have seen several ensembles posted on the past few pages moving it south.

Euro and GFS, along with it's ensembles have not really shifted that far south, yet. But they have trended deeper. It's the CMC and ICON. Now if you were talking 7-10 days out they have shifted a lot. GFS and Euro had the ULL over Wyoming and Nebraska not long ago.

Storm has been modeled since past Christmas (amazing!) but shifted north now has been gradually shifting south.

[gpsnowman]

Another good indicator of this potential big pattern change...check out this Alaskan Heat Wave . Always a great tool for Lower 48 Arctic Outbreaks!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/alaska/t2m_f_anom/1704283200/1705147200-y7Ywum0Yb90.png

This must be where the January thaw will be located.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS still isn't impressed. It does have a cluster that shows 3 or 4 days of below-freezing temps at DFW, but that is offset by a warm cluster. The mean is in line with a pretty standard mid-winter cold front. I guess you can say it trended a tad colder vs. 00z.

[Portastorm]

Is it time to start paying attention?

There he is, right on time!!!

You guys are doing a great job of analyzing the days/weeks ahead! I always enjoy your posts and what all this group brings to the table. So I've been sitting back, reading closely, and following. As gpsnowman pointed out ... those Barney purples have my attention.

Keep up the good work, gang.

[Brent]

Nobody up here is impressed yet but the big storm is still 5 days away too kind of early

[Anti-freeze]

I'd like to put in a request to keep the tornado threat low in the Houston area next Monday.

(And my name is only 98% accurate, I'm fine with a single freeze once per year. Helps kill off some of the bugs (though I have no idea if it really does or not). Just no power outages or extended extremes, please. Further north, go for it.

(Replaced computers, forgot the latest password for my dpep4 account, and tl;dr: yahoo mail stinks, so it's retired and here's my new acct and name.)

Long live Grandy's.

[Ntxw]

That cold in the mountain west is so stacked on the 18z GFS. You don't often see that kind of cold go uphill, so I'm a bit skeptical. If going by history and climo it would very likely hug the plains and go downhill but getting more interested that something unique may occur somewhere over the US.

[Stratton23]

All aboard the 18z GFS arctic express train! Choo Choo! Love seeing all that pink flood the US

[Ntxw]

All aboard the 18z GFS arctic express train! Choo Choo! Love seeing all that pink flood the US

The arctic has been displaced on the run to the US.

[Stratton23]

Wow thats an insane run of the GFS, keeps us in the ice box through its entire run lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

All aboard the 18z GFS arctic express train! Choo Choo! Love seeing all that pink flood the US

The arctic has been displaced on the run to the US.

Yeeaaaaa i love the cold, but that would suck here lol.

Your statement earlier about the air going down the lee side of the Rockies instead of what the GFS is showing. I agree to a point, but this is the PV or an ULL, so it may be a bit different. I will say, for the Dec '22 arctic blast, i remember a few runs exactly like the 18z and we know what happened for that event.

[Harp.1]

Wow thats an insane run of the GFS, keeps us in the ice box through its entire run lol

Throw in some moisture and we are in business.

[Quixotic]

This is going to be a monster for someone. Hope it’s here but I love the depth. 2009-2010 variety storm.

[Ntxw]

All aboard the 18z GFS arctic express train! Choo Choo! Love seeing all that pink flood the US

The arctic has been displaced on the run to the US.

Yeeaaaaa i love the cold, but that would suck here lol.

Your statement earlier about the air going down the lee side of the Rockies instead of what the GFS is showing. I agree to a point, but this is the PV or an ULL, so it may be a bit different. I will say, for the Dec '22 arctic blast, i remember a few runs exactly like the 18z and we know what happened for that event.

Oh yeah, anything is on the table just going by topography and gravity. It can get really cold in the mountain west.

This has happened before. In a very nearly identical type of El Nino...1972-1973. Early mid January broke loose. There were some wild snow storms in the south and wicked cold in the west.







DFW in that stretch.


So what the latest models are showing is essentially what happened back in Jan of 1973. Or at least we are getting the pieces together.

[Stratton23]

That 18z GFS was a doozy! Overnight mode runs are going to be intriguing, teleconnections do suggest the GFS may be too far west with where it dumps the arctic air, we will see