Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

18z gfs and it's parallel continue to advertise cold and some sort of a winter storm for Texas (not that I like the 6z and 18z runs that much) and the rest of the south. This has consistently been true for quite a few runs now, I'd bet that somebody in Texas will get a good dose of winter weather between Christmas and New Years.

Here is a quote from wxman57 who just posted on the "local Forum" RE the 06Z and 18Z runs...

I wouldn't put much stock in the 18Z or 06Z GFS runs, as there's no new initialization data. Just peeking at the 18Z, though, it shows no strong cold front before Christmas, now. It does show a low forming along the TX coast Christmas night, but temps over us are too warm for anything but rain. It doesn't really follow along with any of the 00Z or 12Z GFS runs.

I suspect we will be seeing posts here next week from him if things continue to unfold in the right direction.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, I've always thought something was always not so correct with those runs, thanks for clearing that up. Now I know it's the data that gets put into the 0z and 12z that makes a true difference

[Portastorm]

Alrightee then ... since we're talking about the possibility of seeing a winter like 1976-77 or 1977-78, here is what those years looked like both from a precip and temp perspective vs. normal.

76-77 TEMPS


76-77 PRECIP


77-78 TEMPS


77-78 PRECIP

[srainhoutx]

Alrightee then ... since we're talking about the possibility of seeing a winter like 1976-77 or 1977-78, here is what those years looked like both from a precip and temp perspective vs. normal.

76-77 TEMPS


76-77 PRECIP


77-78 TEMPS


77-78 PRECIP

Take a peek at 1973. There may be some similar analogies.

[aerology]

You might try the combination of 1954-55, 1972-73, 1990-91 together, just saying might be a good fit?

[snow and ice]

Alrightee then ... since we're talking about the possibility of seeing a winter like 1976-77 or 1977-78, here is what those years looked like both from a precip and temp perspective vs. normal.

76-77 TEMPS


76-77 PRECIP


77-78 TEMPS


77-78 PRECIP

This is definitely not a 76-77 analog. November and December of 76 was very cold east of the Rockies. Texarkana reported its earliest snowfall on record on November 13th, 1976. That winter, the cold came in early November and didn't let up until Mid-January. There were several winter events during that time-frame. However, the 76-77 winter was known more for its cold than snow and ice.

So far, this fall-winter season has followed the 77-78 analog very closely. A cool wet October followed by a warm November. As in 77, this December has seen shots of cold air, but nothing that has lasted very long. As I mentioned in a post above, Texarkana broke a record low the other night that was set in December of 1977. Also, the negative AO and ENSO region 3.4 water temperature anomaly matched up very well with 77-78 winter.

Now, will this winter be exactly like 77-78, probably not. But, like that winter, there will probably be persistent cold(with brief warm-ups) and lots of chances for snow and ice across Texas.

[attallaman]

18z gfs and it's parallel continue to advertise cold and some sort of a winter storm for Texas (not that I like the 6z and 18z runs that much) and the rest of the south. This has consistently been true for quite a few runs now, I'd bet that somebody in Texas will get a good dose of winter weather between Christmas and New Years.

Here is a quote from wxman57 who just posted on the "local Forum" RE the 06Z and 18Z runs...

I wouldn't put much stock in the 18Z or 06Z GFS runs, as there's no new initialization data. Just peeking at the 18Z, though, it shows no strong cold front before Christmas, now. It does show a low forming along the TX coast Christmas night, but temps over us are too warm for anything but rain. It doesn't really follow along with any of the 00Z or 12Z GFS runs.

I suspect we will be seeing posts here next week from him if things continue to unfold in the right direction.

Where is this "local Forum" you mentioned? Is it on this board or another one?

[vbhoutex]

Where is this "local Forum" you mentioned? Is it on this board or another one?

That forum is specific to the Houston area. It is located at KHOU.com.

[attallaman]

Where is this "local Forum" you mentioned? Is it on this board or another one?

That forum is specific to the Houston area. It is located at KHOU.com.

Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Pick your GFS poison...

Para

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_264l.gif

Curent GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

[Ntxw]

Lets mix both!

[wxgirl69]

The forum specific to houston. Is it up and running...

[attallaman]

The forum specific to houston. Is it up and running...

It took me a while to find it once I got to KHOU TV's website but try this: http://z.khou.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=9 The weather forum is located at the bottom of the page once you click on the above link.

[Portastorm]

OK srainhoutx asks to take a peek at the winter of 1972-73 so I have done that. The temperature and precip profiles are below for the December through February months of that winter. I believe this winter featured a strong El Nino (like this winter) and a month of December which was below normal temperature-wise for much of the nation east of the Rockies (somewhat like this winter).

Of interest, there was a South Texas snow event that winter on February 8, 1973, when 2 1/2 inches of snow fell in Del Rio, 2 inches in San Antonio, and Austin got a half inch (sounds like an upper level system scooting across South Texas to me!). I haven't been able to locate ice/sleet events historically or I would mention any of those as well.

TEMPERATURES 1972-73




PRECIP 1972-73

[snow and ice]

The EURO with 2 shots of arctic air next weekend into Christmas week.

Next weekend:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121300!!/

Christmas week:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121300!!/

[gofrogs]

snow and Ice I dont know how to read those maps how cold are the temperatures and does it show any precip.

[wxgirl69]

I read that the models are no longer showing snow for Christmas. Are we still going to get some cold air with no precip?

[weatherguy425]

Not that it will actually come to fruition but models are notorious for losing sch events only to have them reappear a few days ahead of the event...

[Ntxw]

I read that the models are no longer showing snow for Christmas. Are we still going to get some cold air with no precip?

The Ec advertises arctic air around Christmas time frame. The gfs still show the same cold air. You can't really get into the details and expect this far out that changes won't happen. Anything beyond 7 days really is only an educated guess. The trends still gives a chance if you're hoping for a white Christmas

[srainhoutx]

The EURO with 2 shots of arctic air next weekend into Christmas week.

Next weekend:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121300!!/

Christmas week:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121300!!/

Looking good. The trend continues. For those worried about the GFS runs. It is very typical of models (GFS) to "see" a pattern change in the longer range and loose it in this range. Remember last week when Jeff and wxman57 stated that if it is there 5-6 days out, then we may have something to talk about. We shall see. Keep looking at the trends via guidance. I'll offer a prime example. Look at how the WFO's are beefing up wording regarding a shallow Arctic Front that we will see on Monday/Tuesday. What was the guidance suggesting? No cold air. Now as of this morning in light of over night trends via guidance, the TX WFO's are infact lowering high and low temps for next week. Just some food for thought concerning guidance.