Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TheStormExpert]

Hard to believe that the same place that got hit by Hurricane Harvey just over 3 months ago is receiving snow this morning.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oBBg5SsI32IAsp6CY/200.gif#21-grid1

Me when it started snowing last night....

That looks like OU and they SUCK!

It's Rutgers team, but I love the dance! Go Georgia, Go Dawgs!

I'm an Aggie.

[Ntxw]

Digging through some NWS data, Austin Mabry recorded 0.4", Bergstrom 1.3", and College Station a whopping 5"! I think there was another 5" total at Falfurrias per NWS Brownsville which is in their WFO.

[Portastorm]

Digging through some NWS data, Austin Mabry recorded 0.4", Bergstrom 1.3", and College Station a whopping 5"! I think there was another 5" total at Falfurrias per NWS Brownsville which is in their WFO.

Most snowfall we have received in Austin since February 2011. And the first measurable snowfall in December since 2008.

[Portastorm]

Here you go Portastorm!!

https://cdn.drawception.com/images/pane ... Gq9-10.png

https://cdn.drawception.com/images/pane ... Ytn-12.png

Awesome! Love it! And congrats to you for getting some rare snowfall. A hurricane and a snow within six months for Corpus ... what a year.

[Portastorm]

Ha ha! I know, buddy, I know. Mother Nature must have seen my poor mope posting earlier today and thought "ah heck, I'll give the poor fella one thrill this winter."

Lots of reports from around the metro area of snow and sleet mixing with the rain. Kudos to wxman57. He delivered!

From last February, Portastorm, written to you:

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017
#4495 Post by wxman57 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:07 am
I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin...

I believe in a later post I mentioned the 2nd or 3rd week of December was when you would see snow. I come through for my friends, and it's not even winter yet.

Yes, for the record, I need to thank you wxman57 and acknowledge your "spot on" long term forecast. You called it ... it happened. I guess this means now I need to cede Spring and Summer 2018 to you?!

[dhweather]

Digging through some NWS data, Austin Mabry recorded 0.4", Bergstrom 1.3", and College Station a whopping 5"! I think there was another 5" total at Falfurrias per NWS Brownsville which is in their WFO.

Most snowfall we have received in Austin since February 2011. And the first measurable snowfall in December since 2008.

I am SO HAPPY for you Portastorm! Lord knows you've endured way more than your share of freezing drizzle.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Was just about to mention this....long range guidance is trending more favorably to a reload of Arctic Air, this time further west. It's been awhile since I've seen this kind of cold forecasted on an ENS Mean this far out - Look at where all the cold is located across the Northern Hemisphere

That's what the EPS has been hinting too. MSLP rise significantly in the NW of the continent with high pressures moving in from the Arctic. I think a southern US tier type winter system (aka ice storm) might be viable in such a pattern. Both EPS and GEFS depict this joining of the puzzle. Canada may unload on the cold if the NPO ridges merge.





Might see 1050mb+ HP in some runs by next week's runs. Obviously a 2 week forecast but it's means of many runs, and pattern retrogression. Lets see if the OP guidance slowly trend towards it. Both the GEFS and EPS ensemble groups have done a stellar job at foreseeing pattern shifts.

[CaptinCrunch]

:uarrow: Because it happened before midnight, technically we have strung together 2 official freeze days, yesterday and today. NAM MOS has 31F tomorrow morning as the potential third. 23F was the official reading at the airport 6:53 am this morning. Waiting to see if it got any lower between readings.

The MOS output has performed decent, a little too warm on the low even. GFS..I'm not even going to mention that..

The Canadian, NAM, and Euro all were better than the GFS for this outbreak. Relatively speaking for raw temperatures at our location.

Aye, I think with the high today being cut a few degrees the over night low should be in the 29-31 range, a few degrees lower out away from the heat island.

[chaser1]

Regarding the nearer to mid term forecast models, how do you all view the integrity of the GEM 2-Meter forecasts verses the GFS 2-Meter forecasts for time frames roughly ranging from 24-96 hours? I'm asking because lately I"m finding what seems to be some "warm bias" on the part of the GFS while the GEM seems to be consistently 5-10 degrees F colder.

[Ntxw]

Regarding the nearer to mid term forecast models, how do you all view the integrity of the GEM 2-Meter forecasts verses the GFS 2-Meter forecasts for time frames roughly ranging from 24-96 hours? I'm asking because lately I"m finding what seems to be some "warm bias" on the part of the GFS while the GEM seems to be consistently 5-10 degrees F colder.

Depends on the pattern . If it's a cold outbreak, GFS is almost always too warm. If it's a warm outbreak GFS nails it. GEM tends to be a tad too much on the cold side.

If you are within 84 hours, NWS MOS output is the best to use for serious forecasts. It takes the model biases and corrects it among other algorithms. Take for instance this morning the GFS as much as last night was calling for only near freezing at DFW while the GFS MOS (MAV) had 24 which was much closer to reality.

[wxman57]

Yes, for the record, I need to thank you wxman57 and acknowledge your "spot on" long term forecast. You called it ... it happened. I guess this means now I need to cede Spring and Summer 2018 to you?!

Glad you got your snow, Portastorm. I even got a big surprise this morning. Of course, there will eventually be a price to pay for the winter storms of 2017-2018.

[Tireman4]

Yes, for the record, I need to thank you wxman57 and acknowledge your "spot on" long term forecast. You called it ... it happened. I guess this means now I need to cede Spring and Summer 2018 to you?!

Glad you got your snow, Portastorm. I even got a big surprise this morning. Of course, there will eventually be a price to pay for the winter storms of 2017-2018.

Already, I do not like the sound of that. Sounds, ominous. Sounds like.. High Pressure Ridge of Death, Temperatures in the 100's, I laugh at you all suffering type of statement.

[wxman22]

The next storm to watch...?

[Rgv20]

All I have to say is WOW! Here in the McAllen/Edinburg area the snow started around 6:45am with heavy snow from around 8:30 to 10:00. Will post some pictures later

Even some Thundersnow reported in Willacy County!!!


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
930 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

TXZ251-253>257-081730-
Kenedy-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-
Coastal Cameron-
Including the cities of Sarita, McAllen, Edinburg, Pharr,
Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen,
Port Mansfield, Port Isabel, South Padre Island, Laguna Heights,
and Laguna Vista
930 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Thundersnow reported in the Raymondville area...

The emergency manager for Willacy County reported thundersnow
around 910 am in the Raymondville area. Additional thundersnow
will be possible in Kenedy and Willacy counties through the next
one to two hours which can enhance snowfall rates resulting in
additional snow accumulations.

Motorists in Willacy and Kenedy counties are urged to slow down,
use caution and allow extra time to get to their destination this
morning.

[Tireman4]

All I have to say is WOW! Here in the McAllen/Edinburg area the snow started around 6:45am with heavy snow from around 8:30 to 10:00. Will post some pictures later

Enjoy this now old friend for Wxman 57 says he will have his way this Summer. That means" Laughing at us uncontrollably"

[Theepicman116]

Alright. So I’m already looking towards Christmas. I think I read on Twitter that we here in the DFW could have a White Christmas. I’m not sure I believe that though

[Ralph's Weather]

Alright. So I’m already looking towards Christmas. I think I read on Twitter that we here in the DFW could have a White Christmas. I’m not sure I believe that though

The pattern looks like it is headed in a way that is conducive for cold and maybe precip around Christmas. Obviously it is way too far out for specifics.

[orangeblood]

Alright. So I’m already looking towards Christmas. I think I read on Twitter that we here in the DFW could have a White Christmas. I’m not sure I believe that though

The pattern looks like it is headed in a way that is conducive for cold and maybe precip around Christmas. Obviously it is way too far out for specifics.

Yeah, still too far out for those specifics...case in point, 12Z GFS ENS changed drastically from previous runs bringing the Pacific Jet into the west coast/warming up the southern plains significantly around Christmas. Lets see if Canadian and Euro follow suit...

[Brent]

Alright. So I’m already looking towards Christmas. I think I read on Twitter that we here in the DFW could have a White Christmas. I’m not sure I believe that though

The pattern looks like it is headed in a way that is conducive for cold and maybe precip around Christmas. Obviously it is way too far out for specifics.

Yeah, still too far out for those specifics...case in point, 12Z GFS ENS changed drastically from previous runs bringing the Pacific Jet into the west coast/warming up the southern plains significantly around Christmas. Lets see if Canadian and Euro follow suit...

I will never forget last year when fantasy land also showed a cold and stormy Christmas and instead we got 80s

So I'll believe it maybe a few days out, not before that...