Texas Winter 2010-2011

[northtxboy]

sooooooooo where did the cold pocket of air come from? how does that happen?

[Ntxw]

This storm is very dynamic especially while it's over Texas. If you are underneath it anything can happen. Trend is your friend

And Northtxboy, the air from the system's core will be cold aloft, the precip is so epic shown by the NAM that it drags the cold air down in parts of central TX as well.

Anyone on the backside of the trowel needs to keep a close watch.

[WacoWx]

Wait a sec, were those last models for this weekends storm???

[srainhoutx]

This is a typical situation of a very cold pocket of air in the upper levels associated with strong Upper Lows. Many a forecast has busted in the past when the strength of that cold pocket is under estimated. Some will recall a couple of years back when a strong U/L moved across the I-10 corridor and a surprise snow event occurred from Central TX into SE TX. We had a similar situation happen in late November when sleet fell well S into SE TX as a cold pocket behind a U/L passed through N TX area.

[Ntxw]

Wait a sec, were those last models for this weekends storm???

Yes! 18z NAM is showing glimpse of hope for Waco too! Only one run though and 18z at that for now.

[johnbasham]

Our Company tries to give as much lead time to utilities and emergency management clients as possible. For that reason we've given a great deal of weight to the latest (18z) NAM and issued advisories to those clients as well as a forecast map for Sunday evening.

http://www.stormspotter.com/TX-010911-00.png

Thought some of you may find this interesting.

John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

[WacoWx]

This guy did!

I should probably leave this thread now, while I'm on top! Thanks for the knowledge Basham...god knows a lot of us need it.

[gboudx]

Thanks for sharing John. Can you give us an idea of what the darker shadings mean in terms of accumulation? I'm referring to the blue areas in and around the Metroplex.

[Ntxw]

Thanks for sharing John. Can you give us an idea of what the darker shadings mean in terms of accumulation? I'm referring to the blue areas in and around the Metroplex.

Darker shades is heavier precip. I wouldn't be too focused on that right now we still have several runs to figure that out, we learned from last year that you won't have the best idea until the precip starts breaking out. Point here is DFW is sitting at a good location for sneaux. You have the Euro which nails us, while the GFS and NAM are slowly catching up to the bigger precip shield idea.

[Cuda17]

Our Company tries to give as much lead time to utilities and emergency management clients as possible. For that reason we've given a great deal of weight to the latest (18z) NAM and issued advisories to those clients as well as a forecast map for Sunday evening.

http://www.stormspotter.com/TX-010911-00.png

Thought some of you may find this interesting.

John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

Thanks John! Can you verify whether or not the sleet band in central Texas will make it's way east overnight Sunday, or is that a static area of frozen precip?

[Ntxw]

FW is along for the ride.

WITH AFOREMENTIONED LIFT AND DYNAMIC TOP-DOWN SATURATION/COOLING
OF THE LAYER BELOW 10 KFT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL AND FALL TO OR BELOW THE 0 DEG C ISOTHERM ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF NORTH TX BY MIDDAY. SO A COLD RAIN
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW THROUGH LATE
MORNING...THEN TO ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
AREAS GENERALLY NE OF A BOWIE/JACKSBORO...GRANBURY...HILLSBORO...
CANTON OR ATHENS LINE AS THE COLD DOME DEEPENS ACROSS THIS AREA.
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH THE
NAM THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WE`LL BE FOLLOWING A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/HPC TRACK
AND THINKING WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE STORM TRACK
AND COLDER FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.

THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW THE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NE IN RESPONSE TO BEST DPVA SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TX/OZARKS/NRN LA SUN NIGHT. WE`LL KEEP
SOME CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
WEST AS TOP-DOWN DRYING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF EXITING
DISTURBANCE OCCURS.

[gboudx]

Thanks for sharing John. Can you give us an idea of what the darker shadings mean in terms of accumulation? I'm referring to the blue areas in and around the Metroplex.

Darker shades is heavier precip. I wouldn't be too focused on that right now we still have several runs to figure that out, we learned from last year that you won't have the best idea until the precip starts breaking out. Point here is DFW is sitting at a good location for sneaux. You have the Euro which nails us, while the GFS and NAM are slowly catching up to the bigger precip shield idea.

I'm just looking for a general idea so I can figure out if I need to risk life and limb to spray cooking oil on my satellite dish, so I don't lose reception from snow accumulating on it like last year.

Edit: DFW NWS showing 1-3" for NE part of metroplex. And that's where I'm located. Maybe need to spray the dish.

[johnbasham]

Thanks for sharing John. Can you give us an idea of what the darker shadings mean in terms of accumulation? I'm referring to the blue areas in and around the Metroplex.

Darker shades are heavier precipitation (not necessarily heavier accumulation).... The ground will still be relatively warm during this event so the farther north and east you go the better chance of accumulations.

Keep in mind we focus on ice that can form on power lines, raised roadways, and electric generation windmills... So when we issue the winter forecasts we are more interested in those things elevated in the lowest 1500 feet of the atmosphere.

Basham

[HockeyTx82]

I am starting to see some shades of blue..............

http://www.weather.gov/

The fact we went from snow to no snow to snow again makes me think perhaps this could be another one of those big surprises?

[johnbasham]

I'm just looking for a general idea so I can figure out if I need to risk life and limb to spray cooking oil on my satellite dish, so I don't lose reception from snow accumulating on it like last year.

Edit: DFW NWS showing 1-3" for NE part of metroplex. And that's where I'm located. Maybe need to spray the dish.[/quote]

Sounds like you need a Super-Soaker loaded with warm salt water (no climbing needed)

Basham

[johnbasham]

NWSFO FTW now leaning toward Sunday Event:

[johnbasham]

Our Company tries to give as much lead time to utilities and emergency management clients as possible. For that reason we've given a great deal of weight to the latest (18z) NAM and issued advisories to those clients as well as a forecast map for Sunday evening.

http://www.stormspotter.com/TX-010911-00.png

Thought some of you may find this interesting.

John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

Thanks John! Can you verify whether or not the sleet band in central Texas will make it's way east overnight Sunday, or is that a static area of frozen precip?

After Sunset nearly all sleet will change to Snow or a Snow Rain mix as it pulls Northeast.

[Ntxw]

Land ho!

[gboudx]

I see Shreveport hoisted a WSW. In the updated SWS, DFW says a WWA may be needed in the 1-3" area as confidence increases.

THE BEST
CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF A BOWIE TO FORT WORTH TO CANTON
LINE...WHERE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SNOW OCCURS AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOWIE TO DFW TO CANTON
LINE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

[Turtle]

Wow, I'm right in the middle of the green! West of Shreveport, East of Longview!!!!