Texas Winter 2023-2024

[txtwister78]

What a difference between the 18z and the 0z, but also reinforces as a classic example of why you stick with ensembles more than 7 days out for guidance. Having said all that, this is the first operational run that truly shows the potential late next week.

[Stratton23]

That truely is one of the most jaw dropping GFS runs ive see , the arctic air is just relentless, one wave after the other, each colder than the last blast

[Harp.1]

That truely is one of the most jaw dropping GFS runs ive see , the arctic air is just relentless, one wave after the other, each colder than the last blast

It’s finally starting to show up. Consistently now, it seems.

[starsfan65]

That truely is one of the most jaw dropping GFS runs ive see , the arctic air is just relentless, one wave after the other, each colder than the last blast

What is the Situation about the Low Pressure system Early Next week?

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow that 0z is a step in the right direction

[txtwister78]

Alignment between both the OP and ensemble. Now we look for consistency going forward.

[Gotwood]

What’s the latest on the SSW?

[Ntxw]

Euro is going there. More runs to come. Moral of story a monster system will be moving across next week followed by a displacement of the arctic via huge blocking. Going to be memorable for someone if not many.

[Ntxw]

All the winter fun talk aside, a 500mb set up of long duration displacement of cold air potentially like this the grid will probably have a hard time. The last time we had a displacement of the arctic in 2021 was definitely quite a ride.



While I noted Jan 1966 and 1973, a repeat of those alone would be quite the challenge.

[Stratton23]

00z Euro control run goes absolutely bonkers with the cold!

[Sambucol]

00z Euro control run goes absolutely bonkers with the cold!

Does it send the bonkers cold all the way to the Texas coast?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol yep, mid upper teens in se texas with low 20’s at the coast , these are the lows, highs barely to freezing

[NDG]

The -PNA, -NAO, -AO pattern is definitely a good pattern for TX to get frozen precip, so no surprising global moving starting to show that.

[Iceresistance]

What did I just wake up to?

[WacoWx]

What did I just wake up to?

Let’s keep our private lives in another forum. Jokes

[South Texas Storms]

All the winter fun talk aside, a 500mb set up of long duration displacement of cold air potentially like this the grid will probably have a hard time. The last time we had a displacement of the arctic in 2021 was definitely quite a ride.

https://i.imgur.com/cgiwZYw.png

While I noted Jan 1966 and 1973, a repeat of those alone would be quite the challenge.

Yep, time to start worrying about the grid holding up if the latest guidance verifies. ERCOT has already mentioned if we see another event like Feb 2021 we're likely to see more rolling outages...

[HockeyTx82]

All the winter fun talk aside, a 500mb set up of long duration displacement of cold air potentially like this the grid will probably have a hard time. The last time we had a displacement of the arctic in 2021 was definitely quite a ride.

https://i.imgur.com/cgiwZYw.png

While I noted Jan 1966 and 1973, a repeat of those alone would be quite the challenge.

Yep, time to start worrying about the grid holding up if the latest guidance verifies. ERCOT has already mentioned if we see another event like Feb 2021 we're likely to see more rolling outages...

What time frame are we talking about.

[Iceresistance]

All the winter fun talk aside, a 500mb set up of long duration displacement of cold air potentially like this the grid will probably have a hard time. The last time we had a displacement of the arctic in 2021 was definitely quite a ride.

https://i.imgur.com/cgiwZYw.png

While I noted Jan 1966 and 1973, a repeat of those alone would be quite the challenge.

Yep, time to start worrying about the grid holding up if the latest guidance verifies. ERCOT has already mentioned if we see another event like Feb 2021 we're likely to see more rolling outages...

What time frame are we talking about.

Mid-January

[wxman57]

00z Euro control run goes absolutely bonkers with the cold!

Does it send the bonkers cold all the way to the Texas coast?

I wouldn't put too much stock in a control run, which has the same data as the operational run but run at lower resolution. Operational 00Z Euro doesn't even have any lows in the 30s for the coast, though it has some pretty cold air over the Panhandle in 10 days, suggestive of a light freeze possible along the coast. 00Z GFS indicates a possible light freeze to the mid and upper coast on the 15th. 00Z Canadian has mid to upper 30s down the upper TX coast on the 13th.

I really don't see anything major coming for Texas. No cross-Polar flow. Flow coming across the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada then south. Typical winter cold front. Certainly, nothing compared to 2021. My wall will hold.

[South Texas Storms]

00z Euro control run goes absolutely bonkers with the cold!

Does it send the bonkers cold all the way to the Texas coast?

I wouldn't put too much stock in a control run, which has the same data as the operational run but run at lower resolution. Operational 00Z Euro doesn't even have any lows in the 30s for the coast, though it has some pretty cold air over the Panhandle in 10 days, suggestive of a light freeze possible along the coast. 00Z GFS indicates a possible light freeze to the mid and upper coast on the 15th. 00Z Canadian has mid to upper 30s down the upper TX coast on the 13th.

I really don't see anything major coming for Texas. No cross-Polar flow. Flow coming across the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada then south. Typical winter cold front. Certainly, nothing compared to 2021. My wall will hold.

I would be very surprised if Houston only sees a light freeze during this upcoming cold event. The projected pattern screams hard freeze, possibly down to the coast. I'm afraid significant cold is coming, and your wall won't be able to stop it.