Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Kelarie]

And so it starts....

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
330 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN
PLACE FOR A SLEET AND SNOW MIXTURE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN INTO ALL
SNOW FURTHER SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AND END SUNDAY NIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010-012>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-080530-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.A.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T0600Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-
BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-RUSK-PANOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...
LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE
330 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

*SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD INTO NORTH LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY EVENING.

*UP TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY
FALL AFTER OR IN COMBINATION WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SLEET.

*MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING...WITH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TRAVEL TIMES ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SINCE THIS WILL BE WET HEAVY SNOW...
SOME BREAKAGE OF TREE LIMBS COULD OCCUR...RESULTING IN ISOLATED
POWER FAILURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So those of us in Central Texas rooting for something colder than rain falling from the sky should be rooting for more runs like the 18Z NAM?

I'd basically given up hope, but it's nice to have even a semblance of something to be excited about.

[Ntxw]

GFS still isn't biting on the cold yet for the storm, making it somewhat the outlier atm. Lets see what it does tonight via 0z.

[Portastorm]

So those of us in Central Texas rooting for something colder than rain falling from the sky should be rooting for more runs like the 18Z NAM?

I'd basically given up hope, but it's nice to have even a semblance of something to be excited about.

Lots of "potential" on the table for this weekend for a lot of us in central, north, and east Texas. Folks better keep up on the latest forecasts or they may be in for some big surprises.

Of course, if you're on S2K, you won't be surprised because we will have hashed every model run to death between now and Monday!

[HockeyTx82]

So those of us in Central Texas rooting for something colder than rain falling from the sky should be rooting for more runs like the 18Z NAM?

I'd basically given up hope, but it's nice to have even a semblance of something to be excited about.

Lots of "potential" on the table for this weekend for a lot of us in central, north, and east Texas. Folks better keep up on the latest forecasts or they may be in for some big surprises.

Of course, if you're on S2K, you won't be surprised because we will have hashed every model run to death between now and Monday!

Speaking of which does anyone know of a location where we can get a compiled animated model run? I would like to see how, say over the last 2 weeks or so, the snow and temps have come and gone. Does my question make sense?

[Brandon8181]

The updated National weather service forecast for my area:

Sunday 70% Sleet and snow Hi 35
Sunday Night 30% Snow
Monday Snow flurries HI 36

Accumulating up to 3 inches (I personally think it will be more than that )

[DFW Stormwatcher]

:)

The updated National weather service forecast for my area:

Sunday 70% Sleet and snow Hi 35
Sunday Night 30% Snow
Monday Snow flurries HI 36

Accumulating up to 3 inches (I personally think it will be more than that )

It always could be, the NWS in FW were still saying there could be up to 8 inches of snow last year when 10 had already fallen. They generally have to be conservative.

[LearnedHat]

It seems as though this will be a winter precip event. Originally, the bitter cold, dry air was to be the story, if not indeed record breaking. I’m in DFW and originally was thinking 10-35 degrees F for several days (maybe a few not breaking the freezing mark). Am I to understand that it will not be near that cold now? Just need to do some additional stuff around the house if is 1983/1989 temps.

[txagwxman]

There is no/little cold air advection (except for the cold advection from the east) with the weekend system. The cooling aloft is from latent heat of evaporation and melting of graupel/snow aloft. I think that is why the models having a tough time.

[txagwxman]

18z NAM.

[txagwxman]

It seems as though this will be a winter precip event. Originally, the bitter cold, dry air was to be the story, if not indeed record breaking. I’m in DFW and originally was thinking 10-35 degrees F for several days (maybe a few not breaking the freezing mark). Am I to understand that it will not be near that cold now? Just need to do some additional stuff around the house if is 1983/1989 temps.

Dallas won't even get close to that...

[Brandon8181]

:)

The updated National weather service forecast for my area:

Sunday 70% Sleet and snow Hi 35
Sunday Night 30% Snow
Monday Snow flurries HI 36

Accumulating up to 3 inches (I personally think it will be more than that )

It always could be, the NWS in FW were still saying there could be up to 8 inches of snow last year when 10 had already fallen. They generally have to be conservative.

I feel like in at least my area it will be closer to 2-4 inches, with isolated areas of 3-7 inches.

Just my thoughts and opinions and is not an official forecast.

[WeatherKing]

anyone think a Winter Storm Watch is warranted for the DFW area?? Lake Charles NWS has issued one, we never got one during the Feb 2010 event and it seems the FTW office is hesitant after being burned in the past

[Ntxw]

anyone think a Winter Storm Watch is warranted for the DFW area?? Lake Charles NWS has issued one, we never got one during the Feb 2010 event and it seems the FTW office is hesitant after being burned in the past

If it were me I'd issue one by tonight. Still a lot of uncertainties as to where heaviest precip will set up depending on which models you want to believe. Unless something drastic changes I would be surprised if there were no watches issued at least from Tarrant county eastward by tomorrow at 12z. It wouldn't hurt. If less go for the WWA if heavier of course warnings.

[johnbasham]

Here's a look at the Forecast graphic we issued to clients across Texas this past hour (Sunday - Monday)



John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

[johnbasham]

Keep in mind that forecast does not include accumulations, just PType

Basham

[northtxboy]

Keep in mind that forecast does not include accumulations, just PType

Basham

Mr. Basham sir I live in fannin county up by the red river, how much snow do you think we might get up here. Some poeple say 2-6 in and others say we might get alot of ice,, The reason I ask is because our local mets are not giving us much info as to what will fall and how much. If it is ice then I need to prepare now for me and my family.

[johnbasham]

Keep in mind that forecast does not include accumulations, just PType

Basham

Mr. Basham sir I live in fannin county up by the red river, how much snow do you think we might get up here. Some poeple say 2-6 in and others say we might get alot of ice,, The reason I ask is because our local mets are not giving us much info as to what will fall and how much. If it is ice then I need to prepare now for me and my family.

The reason that your local mets aren't telling you, is we flat don't know at this point. There will be a great deal more certainty tonight after the 00z model runs (hopefully) about the areas that are most likely to receive significant accumulations.

The GFS says your area should see snow Accumulations... The NAM says watch out for ice/freezing rain.... as you can tell it has a great deal to do with the track of the low and the arrival time of the 0c temperatures at the surface in any given location.

Basham

[Ntxw]

Of note the models have initialized this storm as coming in dry for the SW. That has not been the case, I'm not sure how much of this is reaching the ground in AZ but it says a lot about how unpredictable, and dynamic this system really is.

[northtxboy]

Keep in mind that forecast does not include accumulations, just PType

Basham

Mr. Basham sir I live in fannin county up by the red river, how much snow do you think we might get up here. Some poeple say 2-6 in and others say we might get alot of ice,, The reason I ask is because our local mets are not giving us much info as to what will fall and how much. If it is ice then I need to prepare now for me and my family.

The reason that your local mets aren't telling you, is we flat don't know at this point. There will be a great deal more certainty tonight after the 00z model runs (hopefully) about the areas that are most likely to receive significant accumulations.
Thank you so much,,I will give it another day before I do anything.

The GFS says your area should see snow Accumulations... The NAM says watch out for ice/freezing rain.... as you can tell it has a great deal to do with the track of the low and the arrival time of the 0c temperatures at the surface in any given location.

Basham