Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble 2Meter Temperature Means for the first day of 2015...16-20 degrees fahrenheit below normal for South Texas.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Liking what I'm seeing for south LA, cold and a gulf low spinning up. Sure it will probably be freezing rain but at least its some kind of winter precip

But on the other hand I'm sure by tomorrow or Wednesday it will be showing dry and warm for next week.

[dhweather]

I'm far from convinced we are going to see a major cold outbreak in Texas. All we can do is hurry up and wait.

[Ntxw]

Lets see how much this is worth in 24 hours.

[orangeblood]

GFS continues to trend stronger with the Arctic HP early next week/500 mb textbook setup for a variety of winter weather across Texas...1054 HP entering Montana a week from today.

[Ntxw]

There's the big backward S signal. Remember McCauley's post last year during the December ice storm about the backwards S?



Read McFarland's paper and you can learn all about that backwards S!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

And it's not like the GFS is alone.

[ronyan]

Parallel GFS has a massive 1060mb HP in Montana @ 174 hrs then drops it into the central plains as 1056mb.

Need to watch that Canadian source region to see how much colder it gets in the coming week.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Parallel came a bit on the chilly side......


New Years Morning..



Most of the Snowfall occurs early morning thru out New Years day..

[orangeblood]

Yep, and compared to last December this is a much more pronounced Arctic Outbreak Signal (576 DM in NW Canada)...that trough position would bring a plume of pacific moisture up and over the cold dome of HP at the surface across the southern plains. The GFS doesn't stray from this brutally cold pattern through the extended period...activity around here should be crankin' by later this week.

[orangeblood]

Rgv20 - hate to throw this out there but the famous Christmas Eve 2004 analog came up when comparing 500 mb charts for next week....more of a full latitude trough in 2004 than the backwards S/Rex Block the models are showing but there are some similarities!!

[Rgv20]

Rgv20 - hate to throw this out there but the famous Christmas Eve 2004 analog came up when comparing 500 mb charts for next week....more of a full latitude trough in 2004 than the backwards S/Rex Block the models are showing but there are some similarities!!

You made my heart skip! Christmas 2004?!?! RGV 2015 New Years Days White Miracle?

0zCMC has a 1055 High and Navgem has a 1044 high coming down the spine of the Rockies Tuesday Morning....Euro up next!

EDIT: 0zCMC loves Texas!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Rgv20 - hate to throw this out there but the famous Christmas Eve 2004 analog came up when comparing 500 mb charts for next week....more of a full latitude trough in 2004 than the backwards S/Rex Block the models are showing but there are some similarities!!

Oh rearry..... My first Christmas in Houston even though growing up here, one of the most memorable nights of my life! Not sure how the upper air is similar for this pattern though. That was a really really cold system though.

My .02... If only the HP's didnt go so far west, but i think that has to do with the Blocking being so strong in Alaska, the upper air pulls the HP a bit more SW then normal. GFS is putting well over an inch of precip in the Houston area. Lets hope the models have a bit of an issue with the cold air and it will bleed further down then expected.

Staying up for the Euro to see what it predicts.

[orangeblood]

Well ironically, the GEM served it up for me....here you go

Latest GEM Run



Christmas Eve 2004



The current upper air pattern might even be colder than back in 2004 due to a much bigger ridge all the way up into the Arctic Circle

[Sambucol]

GFS continues to trend stronger with the Arctic HP early next week/500 mb textbook setup for a variety of winter weather across Texas...1054 HP entering Montana a week from today.

What kind of temps in SE Texas would we be looking at if that happened?

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensemble Means have a 1050mb High entering Montana late Monday Night...Pretty impressive for being an Ensemble Mean 7 days out!

[LaBreeze]

So, according to this, does that show a major ice storm for SW Louisiana?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah thats nearly identical. Woah. I could see it before i even scrolled down to the 2004 chart. Beauty.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Canadian looks very similar to 2004 as well

[TheProfessor]

Well, it looks like my house is about to get a nice storm, of course I'm not there to see it, but any rain is good rain.

[TheProfessor]

Btw has anyone been looking at Saturday night? I don't have my computer so I can't look at the models, but NWS has my area in North Texas having a low of 31 with a 20% chance of precipitation. Of course it would depend on when precipitation would fall, but maybe it could be sorta interesting?