Texas Winter 2021-2022

[harp]

That vort needs to dig further south.

[Brent]

GFS and CMC both snowing here

[Ntxw]

0z GFS upper pattern would send wxman57 to Australia .

[Brent]

Another winter storm beyond 300 hours

Wxman57 better start looking at plane tickets

GFS keeps us below 15 degrees for a HIGH behind that one

[Ntxw]

FYI GFS gets Kansas down to -20s which is pretty ridiculous next weekend if that were true. But we've seen it before, source region matters.

[orangeblood]

0z GFS upper pattern would send wxman57 to Australia .

He better reach out to his travel agent…..All logic and historical analogs point towards this kind of cold completely overwhelming the continent. The Siberian express is humming on these models!!!

[orangeblood]

FYI GFS gets Kansas down to -20s which is pretty ridiculous next weekend if that were true. But we've seen it before, source region matters.

High of 23F /Low of 12F for DFW next Sunday on CMC.

[Ntxw]

FYI GFS gets Kansas down to -20s which is pretty ridiculous next weekend if that were true. But we've seen it before, source region matters.

High of 23F /Low of 12F for DFW next Sunday on CMC.

GFS is a tad warmer but even that is well below freezing for highs and teens for lows. The cold comes in waves, could it be the first of a big stretch?

Cheezy's post recently the models don't show it until they do. Lets see if this is the first stepping stone. Any HP greater than 1040mb is going to bring down a lot of cold air. It's bitterly cold up there.

[Brent]

FYI GFS gets Kansas down to -20s which is pretty ridiculous next weekend if that were true. But we've seen it before, source region matters.

High of 23F /Low of 12F for DFW next Sunday on CMC.

GFS is a tad warmer but even that is well below freezing for highs and teens for lows. The cold comes in waves, could it be the first of a big stretch?

Cheezy's post recently the models don't show it until they do. Lets see if this is the first stepping stone. Any HP greater than 1040mb is going to bring down a lot of cold air. It's bitterly cold up there.

It's interesting too because the GFS has been liking this timeframe on and off ever since it was beyond 300 so maybe it's onto something. We've seen that before

[Ntxw]

High of 23F /Low of 12F for DFW next Sunday on CMC.

GFS is a tad warmer but even that is well below freezing for highs and teens for lows. The cold comes in waves, could it be the first of a big stretch?

Cheezy's post recently the models don't show it until they do. Lets see if this is the first stepping stone. Any HP greater than 1040mb is going to bring down a lot of cold air. It's bitterly cold up there.

It's interesting too because the GFS has been liking this timeframe on and off ever since it was beyond 300 maybe it's onto something

I agree it's been hinting with some crazy spills. You have some runs that sends it some, kind of holds back. But next weekend was always on the table. What's happening is that the surface cold on the model is winning/models seeing it better in closer range despite 500mb.

[TropicalTundra]

You know it's about to get freaky when the GFS starts showing consistency in models.....

Things are finally looking up for most of the state of Texas. That cold front right after New Years is looking real nice considering it's only 150-170 hours out on the models. If the cold and snow keeps trending and showing when the NAMs finally get in range it'll be REAL fun. 57's gonna need to prepare that Jet soon.....

[Brent]

GFS is a tad warmer but even that is well below freezing for highs and teens for lows. The cold comes in waves, could it be the first of a big stretch?

Cheezy's post recently the models don't show it until they do. Lets see if this is the first stepping stone. Any HP greater than 1040mb is going to bring down a lot of cold air. It's bitterly cold up there.

It's interesting too because the GFS has been liking this timeframe on and off ever since it was beyond 300 maybe it's onto something

I agree it's been hinting with some crazy spills. You have some runs that sends it some, kind of holds back. But next weekend was always on the table. What's happening is that the surface cold on the model is winning/models seeing it better in closer range despite 500mb.

I just keep remembering February it kept showing that too and it wasnt til later the other models caught on

[harp]

Where’s 57?

[TropicalTundra]

Where’s 57?

preparing the Supersonic Jet incase of winter emergency....

[Brent]

Where’s 57?

Looking at flights to Australia

[harp]

Where’s 57?

Looking at flights to Australia

[Ntxw]

It's interesting too because the GFS has been liking this timeframe on and off ever since it was beyond 300 maybe it's onto something

I agree it's been hinting with some crazy spills. You have some runs that sends it some, kind of holds back. But next weekend was always on the table. What's happening is that the surface cold on the model is winning/models seeing it better in closer range despite 500mb.

I just keep remembering February it kept showing that too and it wasnt til later the other models caught on

Yep. Even with the GFS back in Feb it wasn't showing extreme cold until a few days before (4x runs a day makes it feel like a lot of consistency) but its reward was that it hammered the Euro which was showing something stupid like barely a freeze when really was single digits and below zero. Models were waffling the first week of Feb but had hints.

Feb really shouldn't have been as cold as it was if you looked at the upper levels. We've seen much stronger delivery patterns that didn't come close. Source of air delivered. I think this is part of why the Euro was defeated, its superior upper pattern relationship short range became its weakness.

[Ntxw]

Euro isn't quite as low as the GFS or CMC but look at the trend on it, much colder than prior runs next weekend. Would be coldest blast to date with lots of time to adjust still! Has DFW in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows. Much of Oklahoma stays below freezing. You get a better trajectory than previous runs.

Point of interest, all of the models develop a near 1060mb HP dome coming down from the Arctic into Canada.

[harp]

Euro isn't quite as low as the GFS or CMC but look at the trend on it, much colder than prior runs next weekend. Would be coldest blast to date with lots of time to adjust still! Has DFW in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows. Much of Oklahoma stays below freezing. You get a better trajectory than previous runs.

Point of interest, all of the models develop a near 1060mb HP dome coming down from the Arctic into Canada.

Yes, let's hope things line up and there is precip with the cold.

[skyline385]

I am no winter weather expert but this cold front would be pretty crazy looking at those temps