Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Gotwood]

Does it send the bonkers cold all the way to the Texas coast?

I wouldn't put too much stock in a control run, which has the same data as the operational run but run at lower resolution. Operational 00Z Euro doesn't even have any lows in the 30s for the coast, though it has some pretty cold air over the Panhandle in 10 days, suggestive of a light freeze possible along the coast. 00Z GFS indicates a possible light freeze to the mid and upper coast on the 15th. 00Z Canadian has mid to upper 30s down the upper TX coast on the 13th.

I really don't see anything major coming for Texas. No cross-Polar flow. Flow coming across the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada then south. Typical winter cold front. Certainly, nothing compared to 2021. My wall will hold.

I would be very surprised if Houston only sees a light freeze during this upcoming cold event. The projected pattern screams hard freeze, possibly down to the coast. I'm afraid significant cold is coming, and your wall won't be able to stop it.

I love how he knows what’s coming haha. I can do without the super cold just wanted some snow. Guess we will see how it plays out.

[HockeyTx82]

I wouldn't put too much stock in a control run, which has the same data as the operational run but run at lower resolution. Operational 00Z Euro doesn't even have any lows in the 30s for the coast, though it has some pretty cold air over the Panhandle in 10 days, suggestive of a light freeze possible along the coast. 00Z GFS indicates a possible light freeze to the mid and upper coast on the 15th. 00Z Canadian has mid to upper 30s down the upper TX coast on the 13th.

I really don't see anything major coming for Texas. No cross-Polar flow. Flow coming across the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada then south. Typical winter cold front. Certainly, nothing compared to 2021. My wall will hold.

I would be very surprised if Houston only sees a light freeze during this upcoming cold event. The projected pattern screams hard freeze, possibly down to the coast. I'm afraid significant cold is coming, and your wall won't be able to stop it.

I love how he knows what’s coming haha. I can do without the super cold just wanted some snow. Guess we will see how it plays out.

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/5-stages-of-grief

Denial is the first step, Wxman57 it will be ok.

[wxman57]

I would be very surprised if Houston only sees a light freeze during this upcoming cold event. The projected pattern screams hard freeze, possibly down to the coast. I'm afraid significant cold is coming, and your wall won't be able to stop it.

You're saying 25F or colder by Jan 15th? I'd say possibly upper 20s at IAH. Not talking about late January or February.

[Portastorm]

I would be very surprised if Houston only sees a light freeze during this upcoming cold event. The projected pattern screams hard freeze, possibly down to the coast. I'm afraid significant cold is coming, and your wall won't be able to stop it.

You're saying 25F or colder by Jan 15th? I'd say possibly upper 20s at IAH. Not talking about late January or February.

The young rising star versus the venerable, wise veteran … who will prevail?!

[South Texas Storms]

I would be very surprised if Houston only sees a light freeze during this upcoming cold event. The projected pattern screams hard freeze, possibly down to the coast. I'm afraid significant cold is coming, and your wall won't be able to stop it.

You're saying 25F or colder by Jan 15th? I'd say possibly upper 20s at IAH. Not talking about late January or February.

The young rising star versus the venerable, wise veteran … who will prevail?!

Oh Porta

I think IAH has a good chance of reaching 25F or colder during the January 15-20 time period.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS still isn't impressed. It does have a cluster that shows 3 or 4 days of below-freezing temps at DFW, but that is offset by a warm cluster. The mean is in line with a pretty standard mid-winter cold front. I guess you can say it trended a tad colder vs. 00z.

00z EPS tremded a tad cooler. The EPS is still showing a very warm cluster for Texas, and blocking that isn't as extreme as the op. At some point, agreement among the ops might give one confidence to discount the warm cluster. That would really bottom out the means.

[Sambucol]

Pow Ponder said in his video this morning confirmation this morning of a 60 degree surge in the Arctic. SSWE. Displacement of the Polar Vortex. By January 12, intense Arctic air building in British Columbia. Temp anomalies over 30 degrees below normal. Snowpack will help colder air travel farther south.

Here’s the link to his video: https://youtu.be/8tOP-x6dSC4?feature=shared

[Ntxw]

CIPS agrees it will get much colder across the country starting with the western US. I've used this alongside the other tools to weed out the model flip flops and/or runs that often don't make sense when using analogs. It worked pretty well in 2021 and last season. Remember, there were times in Feb 2021 the PVa went east and we were all afraid it was going east of US. Then they flipped to out into the Pacific. The same stuff with the SW a loft last winter.

The cold will start in the west and move east as the month goes on.

[dhweather]

That's not a CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont need to remind you ugys that the cold air will certainly bleed down into Texas much more than the models are showing. Models missed the cold front in Houston by 3 days in '21.

The one piece im not seeing, which we had in Feb '21, is lows rotating around the PV and down into the Southern US. The cold air is right there, now if you can get a shortwave to rotate around and down the low, then Texas will certainly be in business.

[bubba hotep]

Oh Canada?

[wxman57]

Completely different weather pattern in the 12z GFS at 192 hrs (next Friday). Check the 500mb charts for hour 192 and compare to past two runs. Upper trof axis was over WA/OR at 00Z and 06Z. Now it's over Baja.

[cheezyWXguy]

Oooo that 12z gfs is looking nice around day 9. Pattern still quite variable that far out on the op though

[dhweather]

12Z GFS still likes this blue stuff. Next weekend is a long way off - we'll see.

[orangeblood]

Oh Canada?

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2024010412/126/prateptype-imp.us_sc.png

LOL inside 120 hrs....

[Texas Snowman]

Gosh, I love this Texas Winter Weather thread every year!

But I must admit (in good natured fun) that it seems like when I open it up the past few days, I’m greeted in my mind with the sound of the voice of Charlie Brown’s teacher “Wah wah wah wah wah wah…”

[Ntxw]

If you take notice, the GFS and a little bit of the Euro has been giving up on the southern plains -> Michigan track. Why is this important? It means they have been somewhat flawed plowing the storm into the growing -NAO/-AO block. The adjustment has been southern plains -> Ohio Valley path so far. So the guidance has a lot more room to shift south and not the hard turn, which is what the CMC has been doing.

[HockeyTx82]

If you take notice, the GFS and a little bit of the Euro has been giving up on the southern plains -> Michigan track. Why is this important? It means they have been somewhat flawed plowing the storm into the growing -NAO/-AO block. The adjustment has been southern plains -> Ohio Valley path so far. So the guidance has a lot more room to shift south and not the hard turn, which is what the CMC has been doing.

Time to stock up on bread and milk?

[wxman57]

Nothing extreme in the 12Z GFS. It has a light freeze (lower 30s) for Houston area the 13th and 19th. There may be the potential for some snow in the D-FW area on the 13th. Hard freeze possible up there, but it should be VERY short-lived. Seems like seasonal January weather, to me.

[Stratton23]

Seems like that private jet is getting ready