Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

12z EPS is noticeably colder and a good deal further west with the trough

12z GEPS also coming in much colder

[Tireman4]

Tornado still on the ground. Moving to the East toward the Splendora area.

Tornado on the ground at the top of the frame entering northern areas in Splendora, TX. SEEK SHELTER NOW.
@NWSHouston

@MaxVelocityWX

@ryanhallyall

[orangeblood]

100 plus hours of below freezing for northern half of state for week 2 on Euro

5 day temp anomalies


And major severe Arctic outbreak for majority of the US

[Brent]

EPS continues to get better here

[Tireman4]

Tornado still on the ground. Both radar and visual confirmed. Moving northeast at 35 mph. Large wedge.

[Sambucol2024]

100 plus hours of below freezing for northern half of state for week 2 on Euro

5 day temp anomalies
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1735387200/1736575200-KBEFXyjrBQY.png

And major severe Arctic outbreak for majority of the US
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1735387200/1736683200-ubBUqfXUOJQ.png

ERCOT will probably be affected with those extended below freezing temps.

[orangeblood]

Ntxw - Jan 1985!! And arguably a better 5h setup

[Stratton23]

Thats one of the best setups for big cold and a southern winter storm ive seen, it just cant get much better than that!

[Brent]

Best signal on the GEFS is now only 8 days away we're getting closer. It's the end of the next Sunday storm

[Tireman4]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1258 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

TXC039-167-281930-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-241228T1930Z/
Galveston TX-Brazoria TX-
1258 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CST FOR WEST
CENTRAL GALVESTON AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES...

At 1258 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Liverpool, or
near Alvin, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This tornado will be near...
Southwestern League City, southern Friendswood, Alvin, Santa Fe,
and Hillcrest around 105 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2930 9532 2934 9536 2951 9518 2940 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 235DEG 25KT 2935 9530

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

03

[snownado]

Might be time to consider pulling a Cruz and start booking my trip to Ft. Lauderdale...

[Brent]

Clearly multiple storm opportunities on the EPS wow

Wxman57 better be gassing up that jet

[Ntxw]

Ntxw - Jan 1985!! And arguably a better 5h setup

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/z500_anom_5day/1735387200/1736532000-5FfmJ9qKjjQ.png

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/compday.JZDvg0pytK.gif

It's pretty hefty the models are in that much agreement this far out. Imagine the runs closer in. The 500mb lower heights across the US east of the divide on the ENS long range was hinting something big could happen. That vorticity with the incoming Arctic front could yield high ratio snows with little qpf, in near whiteout type frontal events. Speculation though .

[Tireman4]

Tornado Still On The Ground


Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
111 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

TXC039-167-281930-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-241228T1930Z/
Galveston TX-Brazoria TX-
111 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CST FOR WESTERN
GALVESTON AND EAST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTIES...

At 111 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Hillcrest, or
near Alvin, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This tornado will be near...
Southwestern League City and Santa Fe around 115 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2936 9523 2939 9525 2947 9515 2940 9509
2937 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 243DEG 24KT 2939 9520

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

03

[wxman22]

The Euro and CMC are both showing snow around the 8th in Oklahoma and North Texas from an "Ana Front" setup.

[Ntxw]

The Euro and CMC are both showing snow around the 8th in Oklahoma and North Texas from an "Ana Front" setup.

GFS does too, it's just drier at the surface but there is definitely energy riding the base of the trough.

[Brandon8181]

Ntxw - Jan 1985!! And arguably a better 5h setup

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/z500_anom_5day/1735387200/1736532000-5FfmJ9qKjjQ.png

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/compday.JZDvg0pytK.gif

It's pretty hefty the models are in that much agreement this far out. Imagine the runs closer in. The 500mb lower heights across the US east of the divide on the ENS long range was hinting something big could happen. That vorticity with the incoming Arctic front could yield high ratio snows with little qpf, in near whiteout type frontal events. Speculation though .

It really looks like the GFS had been trying to hint at something down this direction. It is interesting to see the agreement, but will be more fun if it does this over the next few days

[Brent]

The EPS snow mean has doubled here since yesterday

[Tireman4]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
132 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

TXC167-201-282000-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-241228T2000Z/
Galveston TX-Harris TX-
132 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES...

At 131 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Dickinson, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This tornado will be near...
Eastern League City, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, southern
Seabrook, Kemah, Clear Lake Shores, Bacliff, San Leon, and Kemah
Boardwalk around 135 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2938 9510 2945 9515 2958 9499 2943 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 242DEG 26KT 2943 9509

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

[Stratton23]

One thing to note, the Euro Op is much faster with the arrival of the arctic air, it starts to overtake the state by the 6th so 8 says from now, much quicker than other guidance