Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[snow and ice]

First of all, ok ... c'mon now ... the GGEM?! The Canadian model scores the lowest in terms of reliability or so I have read. I also looked at it through 144 hours and saw nothing of "interest" at least for the Southern Plains and Texas. Wxman22, I agree with you!

Secondly, I did look at those 6z ensemble runs per snow and ice's note. Only two of the 12 ensembles showed an ice/snow event for parts of the central and southern parts of the state. However, about half did show pretty cold conditions for the northern part of Texas along with a threat for snow or ice.

You enjoy the weather...because it's the only weather you've got. I've heard that somewhere before.

[Portastorm]

First of all, ok ... c'mon now ... the GGEM?! The Canadian model scores the lowest in terms of reliability or so I have read. I also looked at it through 144 hours and saw nothing of "interest" at least for the Southern Plains and Texas. Wxman22, I agree with you!

Secondly, I did look at those 6z ensemble runs per snow and ice's note. Only two of the 12 ensembles showed an ice/snow event for parts of the central and southern parts of the state. However, about half did show pretty cold conditions for the northern part of Texas along with a threat for snow or ice.

You enjoy the weather...because it's the only weather you've got. I've heard that somewhere before.

snow and ice ... you're really JB!!! Haaaa .... I love it.

[Portastorm]

Remember you have to use all the tools in the tool box in this type of setup. ALL guidance is struggling as we have seen for the past two or three weeks. As for the GGEM, it does show some "hints" in the Upper Air Pattern. Details and all the tools folks. We shall see, but that's my 0.02 cents worth.

Well, after another review ... the only thing that catches me eye from the Canadian 12z run is that it appears to retrograde a very strong vortex east to west across the Canadian/US border and drop the vortex into the western Great Lakes. Is that it? If that verifies, then yeah ... that could bring some real cold air down about 6-7 days out.

[srainhoutx]

Remember you have to use all the tools in the tool box in this type of setup. ALL guidance is struggling as we have seen for the past two or three weeks. As for the GGEM, it does show some "hints" in the Upper Air Pattern. Details and all the tools folks. We shall see, but that's my 0.02 cents worth.

Well, after another review ... the only thing that catches me eye from the Canadian 12z run is that it appears to retrograde a very strong vortex east to west across the Canadian/US border and drop the vortex into the western Great Lakes. Is that it? If that verifies, then yeah ... that could bring some real cold air down about 6-7 days out.

Ding ding ding. Give that man a cigar!

[snow and ice]

First of all, ok ... c'mon now ... the GGEM?! The Canadian model scores the lowest in terms of reliability or so I have read. I also looked at it through 144 hours and saw nothing of "interest" at least for the Southern Plains and Texas. Wxman22, I agree with you!

Secondly, I did look at those 6z ensemble runs per snow and ice's note. Only two of the 12 ensembles showed an ice/snow event for parts of the central and southern parts of the state. However, about half did show pretty cold conditions for the northern part of Texas along with a threat for snow or ice.

You enjoy the weather...because it's the only weather you've got. I've heard that somewhere before.

snow and ice ... you're really JB!!! Haaaa .... I love it.

I wonder what his take is on all of this.

[cycloneye]

To Portastorm and any member who is interested about how is El Nino behaving,here is the latest update.

Last week numbers:

Niño 4= +1.4ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.7ºC
Niño 3= +1.4ºC
Niño1+2= +0.4ºC

This week numbers:
Niño 4= +1.3ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.8ºC
Niño 3= +1.6ºC
Niño1+2= +0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[southerngale]

A quick glance at the GGEM looks "interesting" as well.

Eh, I'm not letting you get away with just that srainhoutx!

Define "interesting" for those of us who haven't had time to see the GGEM.

I'm keeping my mouth shut until the EC and Ensembles arrive, Portastorm. There are plenty of other fine members here that can post their thoughts. Southerngale as put a muzzle on me. J/K SG. Besides, we would want Lucy to have too much information, would we.

I did no such thing! I just said if you're going to post about it, deliver it. I was trying to put pressure on you to make sure the models verify. You can do that, right?

[srainhoutx]

12Z ECMWF run...

72 Hr



96 Hr



120 Hr



144 Hr



168 Hr



192 Hr



216 Hr



240 Hr



If the EC is correct, it suggests a strong push of cold air all the way into Mexico/Belize/Cuba. There appear to be some Upper Air disturbances riding along the N/NW flow. Also some potential for Sub Tropical Jet activity as well. We shall see.

[srainhoutx]

HPC seems to be biting on a stronger Arctic Aimass for the week of Christmas as well...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

[Big O]

12Z ECMWF run...

72 Hr



96 Hr



120 Hr



144 Hr



168 Hr



192 Hr



216 Hr



240 Hr



If the EC is correct, it suggests a strong push of cold air all the way into Mexico/Belize/Cuba. There appear to be some Upper Air disturbances riding along the N/NW flow. Also some potential for Sub Tropical Jet activity as well. We shall see.

I'm not vey adept at reading models, but how do you know there would be a strong push of cold air into Mexico/Belize/Cuba. Although there appears to be some cold air transport from Canda, it would appear the flow goes zonal across Texas. Why wouldn't this suggest the cold being locked up to our north over the extreme northern portions of the Southern Plains.

[srainhoutx]

If you look at the 850mb charts for the ECMWF, you willl see that the front drops that far S. The free EC model available to the general public doesn't do justice to the guidance of the EC. Only NWS, some Pro Met as well as Pro Energy Mets have access to the 'finer' detailed data. It is very expensive from what I understand. I only posted the 500mb charts to show the Upper Flow Patterns. Others may want post those charts if so inclined. Also, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the medium and longer range, so take it all with a grain of salt. The guidance will likely flip flop over the next several day, before a reasonable solution becomes a bit clearer. I strongly believe that the NWS is keenly aware that the Holidays are approaching and will adderss the issues ahead after we get through the front today and tomorrow. You can already see that some WFO's as well as Pro Mets are discussing the affects and possible scenarios. It is a time when people are busy with Holiday Plans and Activities as well as travel plans. The chatter will likely increase in the days ahead if warranted to get folks attention IMHO, what ever thats worth.

[Portastorm]

If I'm reading the 12z operational Euro correctly, the model is suggesting the possibility of an ice/snow event in north Texas overnight Friday into Saturday morning. The airmass appears to be cold enough and there's a lot of moisture at the 700 mb and 850 mb levels along with some upper-level energy going west to east.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[Ntxw]

If I'm reading the 12z operational Euro correctly, the model is suggesting the possibility of an ice/snow event in north Texas overnight Friday into Saturday morning. The airmass appears to be cold enough and there's a lot of moisture at the 700 mb and 850 mb levels along with some upper-level energy going west to east.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

That's interesting I didn't notice it until you mentioned.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Interesting note from NWS Brownsville in their PM AFD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES THROUGH
THURS. HOWEVER AFTER THURS THE ECMWF BEGINS TO DIVERGE FROM THE
GFS AND DIGS A MAJOR TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS VERFIES IT
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORT OF CANADIAN AIR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE EASTWARD POSITIONED BROAD
TROUGH WITH A LESS DRAMATIC RESUPPLY OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MAV AND NAM TEMPS AND POPS LOOKS
FAIR IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A VERY NARROW MAX AND MIN TEMP RANGE
EXPECTED FOR WED WITH THE EXPECTED OVERRUNNING EVENT. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MEX TEMPS AND POPS IS ALSO FAIR AND HAVE GONE
NEAR OR BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.
&&

[snow and ice]

The CPC is certainly on board for the cold for the next two weeks:
6-10 day outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

8-14 Day outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /index.php

[vbhoutex]

HPC seems to be biting on a stronger Arctic Aimass for the week of Christmas as well...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

And that is indeed a huge bite they are taking. Gets more interesting by the hour just about.

[attallaman]

I'm watching with great interest the possibilities of some very cold air charging down the plains.

I drove through the neighborhood and took note of the freeze damage from last weekend:
- The Pygmy Dates may have total leaf loss
- Florida Gardenias will have total leaf loss and may have to be cut back significantly
- Annuals (Bananas, etc.), are toast
- Unprotected Majesty Palms have significant leaf burn
- Lantanas are toast
- Some leaf burn noted on Queen palms - it's pretty bad on some of the smaller ones
- Variegated Ginger has significant leaf burn
- Also noted: a Royal Palm in the inner loop on Bissonnet has significant leaf & crown burn. Too early to tell if the spear was killed.
- My protected Majesty Palms look like they survived, but the fronds are mush and bend in half - first time I've seen this happen.

All-in-all, this was the worst freeze I have seen in the Houston area since we moved here in 2005. If we get anything colder than what we got last weekend, it will be bad even in the urban core.

That's quite a list, do you have any sago palms, canary island palms or hybyscus(sp?) ?

[Ntxw]

So does it look like anybody in Texas could get snow\ice this weekend? I have family starting to come in this weekend so important to know these things

[mysterymachinebl]

Steve McCauley on WFAA tonight hinted at some possible major changes beginning this weekend. He said he may know a little more tonight at 10 after the latest model runs. It seems at least a few of the meteorologists in the area are picking up on some possible cold weather moving down towards next week.

[jasons2k]

That's quite a list, do you have any sago palms, canary island palms or hybyscus(sp?) ?

I have 5 sagos and they were unharmed - they are hardy down to the teens. I don't have any Canary Island dates but the ones in the area look unharmed as well, I believe they are hardy down to about 15-20.

I forgot to mention the hibiscus - and I have a lot. All my hibiscus got fried pretty badly. Total leaf loss and the top few inches of the branches are mush. They should come back though...that is unless we have another really hard freeze....