Texas Winter 2010-2011

[johnbasham]

If you're interested in seeing just how much meteorologist are disagreeing on this system in Texas, Just take a look at the NDFD graphical forecast from the different NWS Offices for Texas.

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphi ... plains.php

Just check the "Weather" depiction for Sunday into Monday... VAST differences in forecast timing and precip type.

Basham

[jasons2k]

Of note the models have initialized this storm as coming in dry for the SW. That has not been the case, I'm not sure how much of this is reaching the ground in AZ but it says a lot about how unpredictable, and dynamic this system really is.

Well, it sorta has been dry. I've been in So Cal the last two days and it's been sunny most of the time, even though there are some clouds and snow/rain up in the hills and mountains. Even this AM the TV mets said it would be more cloudy and wet as the ULL passed overhead - and all I saw was mostly sun.

[Ntxw]

Of note the models have initialized this storm as coming in dry for the SW. That has not been the case, I'm not sure how much of this is reaching the ground in AZ but it says a lot about how unpredictable, and dynamic this system really is.

Well, it sorta has been dry. I've been in So Cal the last two days and it's been sunny most of the time, even though there are some clouds and snow/rain up in the hills and mountains. Even this AM the TV mets said it would be more cloudy and wet as the ULL passed overhead - and all I saw was mostly sun.

I'm glad it didn't aggravate the damp soil situation there, could've been much worse. I never did think it was going to rain or anything like that for SoCal. It was just unpredicted for such reflectivity to show up on the water vapor imagery . But yeah it's not unusual for the mountains to squeeze precip due to topography there. It is socal after all where sun shine and perfect weather reigns supreme!

[newtotex]

A little quiet in here aint it? I guess we're waiting for the new model to come out?

[Longhornmaniac8]

Yeah. Shouldn't the 0Z runs be up by now?

[Ntxw]

A little quiet in here aint it? I guess we're waiting for the new model to come out?

The 0z NAM run was a set back and trended warmer for NCT. Far northeast Texas has the best soundings for snow. I'm still trying to figure out how it is snowing in the rest of the deep south. Most of the soundings have a very warm layer except for ATL. I wonder if the high reflectivity of sleet is causing these high accumulation rates, particularly for our neighbors in east Texas.

[newtotex]

A little quiet in here aint it? I guess we're waiting for the new model to come out?

The 0z NAM run was a set back and trended warmer for NCT. Far northeast Texas has the best soundings for snow. I'm still trying to figure out how it is snowing in the rest of the deep south. Most of the soundings have a very warm layer except for ATL. I wonder if the high reflectivity of sleet is causing these high accumulation rates, particularly for our neighbors in east Texas.

Thats what I was afraid of happening. Its not set in stone though, right? Does the lack of moisture its producing over the west have anything to do with it, not being as strong as was thought? Sorry if these were erronous questions, just an enthusiast not a genius

[Ntxw]

A little quiet in here aint it? I guess we're waiting for the new model to come out?

The 0z NAM run was a set back and trended warmer for NCT. Far northeast Texas has the best soundings for snow. I'm still trying to figure out how it is snowing in the rest of the deep south. Most of the soundings have a very warm layer except for ATL. I wonder if the high reflectivity of sleet is causing these high accumulation rates, particularly for our neighbors in east Texas.

Thats what I was afraid of happening. Its not set in stone though, right? Does the lack of moisture its producing over the west have anything to do with it, not being as strong as was thought? Sorry if these were erronous questions, just an enthusiast not a genius

NAM this round went to a further south solution hence taking the dynamics away from us. Lets hope it's not a trend for the next few models.

[WeatherKing]

When is the next model due out?

[cycloneye]

When is the next model due out?

00z GFS starts running at 10:30 PM EST.

[downsouthman1]

Crazy. Though I know he won't remember, I met John Basham during a Skywarn in the Frank Mayborn Center in Temple Texas in (I believe) 1995 or 6.

It would appear, based on the 0Z NAM, that there will be a sub-freezing pocket of upper air extending as far south as South Central Texas during precipitation 42 hours from now.

[johnbasham]

Crazy. Though I know he won't remember, I met John Basham during a Skywarn in the Frank Mayborn Center in Temple Texas in (I believe) 1995 or 6.

It would appear, based on the 0Z NAM, that there will be a sub-freezing pocket of upper air extending as far south as South Central Texas during precipitation 42 hours from now.

I gave many a SkyWarn class at the Mayborn Center. I usually remember people by face and call-sign.

John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas
http://www.StormSpotter.com

[downsouthman1]

Crazy. Though I know he won't remember, I met John Basham during a Skywarn in the Frank Mayborn Center in Temple Texas in (I believe) 1995 or 6.

It would appear, based on the 0Z NAM, that there will be a sub-freezing pocket of upper air extending as far south as South Central Texas during precipitation 42 hours from now.

I gave many a SkyWarn class at the Mayborn Center. I usually remember people by face and call-sign.

John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas
http://www.StormSpotter.com

I know that it was when you were Chief Meteorologist at KXXV. I don't have a call-sign because I'm not a Chaser or anything. Just been a weather enthusiast my whole life.

[Ntxw]

Texarkana is the winner in tonight's American model runs! Kelarie better have her cameras ready .

[johnbasham]

Interesting view when you look at the 24 hour temperature change across the plains states.



Canada even has some 25 degree plus drops!

Basham

[downsouthman1]

It appears the 0Z GFS shows a a broader, deeper wedge of subfreezing upper air 42 hours from now quite a bit further south than the 18Z run did.

http://img9.imageshack.us/i/55728822.png/

[DonWrk]

It appears the 0Z GFS shows a a broader, deeper wedge of subfreezing upper air 42 hours from now quite a bit further south than the 18Z run did.

Do you mean the 48 hr?

[downsouthman1]

It appears the 0Z GFS shows a a broader, deeper wedge of subfreezing upper air 42 hours from now quite a bit further south than the 18Z run did.

Do you mean the 48 hr?

I guess I thought that was inherent. Sorry for the confusion.

[DonWrk]

It appears the 0Z GFS shows a a broader, deeper wedge of subfreezing upper air 42 hours from now quite a bit further south than the 18Z run did.

Do you mean the 48 hr?

I guess I thought that was inherent. Sorry for the confusion.

I wasn't correcting you I was just asking because I'm just getting a small grasp on knowing how to read these models lol

[Brandon8181]

Nam Model seems to be suggesting slightly warmer temperatures across north Texas? However, still seems favorable for sleep and snow. Just hope it doesn't warm up to much.