Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

Tomorrow is just a tease. The real deal is coming january 1-2.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Pfft...no love for North Texas...we get the shaft..

[opticsguy]

Lightning strike just now less than half a mile from my house (N. Dallas). That wasn't in the forecast for this morning.

[texas1836]

Along with that loud, rolling thunder!!!! We heard it too.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS has a major ice storm for southern Texas on the 31st/1st. Arctic air in place with a deep upper trof passing. Parallel run just has cold air and no precip, though.

[perk]

Rgv20 - hate to throw this out there but the famous Christmas Eve 2004 analog came up when comparing 500 mb charts for next week....more of a full latitude trough in 2004 than the backwards S/Rex Block the models are showing but there are some similarities!!

I remember that event like it was yesterday.I was driving home after dropping off gifts at my sisters.Driving home at night with my headlights hitting that snow was one of the most beautiful sites me and my wife has ever seen.

[Portastorm]

I didn't like that event too much. I got a rock (cloudy and cold).

Meanwhile, JB tweeting this morning about a possible freeze in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and frozen precip down to the Gulf Coast next week.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wxman,

What do you give the chances of this actually verifying? Been watching the models since this weekend and they will show what looks to be a pretty significant winter storm for south tx and LA for a run or two only to go to extreme opposites of warm and wet to cold and dry with no gulf low. Like dhweather says another cat 5 in the gulf

[wxman57]

Wxman,

What do you give the chances of this actually verifying? Been watching the models since this weekend and they will show what looks to be a pretty significant winter storm for south tx and LA for a run or two only to go to extreme opposites of warm and wet to cold and dry with no gulf low. Like dhweather says another cat 5 in the gulf

Maybe 20-30% chance of at least some icing happening. Euro indicates "something" around New Year's, but not too much precip. Parallel GFS says just cold and no precip. It has no upper low/trof moving across Texas but keeps the upper low offshore CA.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the set up for next week is an icy one with some snow possible on the northern edge and rain on the southern edge. Hoping that iam in the sweet spot between the shallow cold and the dry deep cold. It is similar to what we saw last year except this year has much more moisture.

[dhweather]

That is not good, no matter how you slice it. We sat cold INSIDE our house without electricity for 3 days in the December 2013 ice storm, Lost some big limbs on trees, don't wish that on anyone.

[Jarodm12]

Lows starting to wrap up http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/mflash-wv.html

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Very healthy rains in Dallas already this morning. I'm at .37 inches so far today, with good radar returns settled right over the city. 44 degrees right now.

[gboudx]

According to Steve McCauley, it's snowing over the Metroplex.

Three days ago this rain event looked like it would be a 50% coverage, 2 days ago it bumped to a 70% coverage, and yesterday the data supported a 100% coverage which we are now seeing. But rainfall rates are one-and-a-half times higher than expected in some areas with thunderstorms. Doppler radar estimated rainfall rates approaching an inch per hour in SW Dallas County ... bonus rainfall !

Now, to be complete, some of this impressive radar imagery is likely due to the melting of snowflakes thousands of feet above the ground, but still, this is an impressive rain for this system.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Bring on the ice storm for SE TEXAS!!!!

Seriously, nothing like hunting in an ice or snow storm and I'm off all next week!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Was the 00z Euro showing moisture for us here in southern Texas? 850 temps to the coast with a low in the RGV, but it carried moisture right?

[Portastorm]

Was the 00z Euro showing moisture for us here in southern Texas? 850 temps to the coast with a low in the RGV, but it carried moisture right?

Yep. Any time you have a cutoff low (upper level) just to our west it creates a moist flow from the Pacific as well as often helping a surface or coastal low to form, thus slinging moisture over the cold dome of air.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Porta... Make it happen. Pour the grey goose, sacrifice a Longhorn, do a snow dance brother!

[Ralph's Weather]

I would keep an eye on late this weekend or early next week for some overrunning precip especially if the high can build in and push subfreezing air south by that time. And the period around New Year's still looks good though the last couple PGFS runs cut off the upper trough off of Cali and keeps it there strangely which would result in dry conditions here a the main trough over the east. I am discounting the PGFS for now as it is not supported by any other models or ensembles. For now, the pattern looks to be similar to last year with the EPO driving things. Hopefully we can finally get a solidly negative AO by later in January so we can get some snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

Any one southeast of Dallas? Wondering if it is actually raining as hard as the radar shows or if it is showing melting snow aloft.