Texas Winter 2019-2020

[cheezyWXguy]

Huge expansion west of the mdt risk in the new spc outlook, but removal of the hatched tornado area. I suspect they’re being cautious, and think this will be added back in at some point. 6z nam still shows SRH values at 400-500, and is initializing 3-4 degrees too cold. Current conditions are more in line with the hrrr, which forecasts up to 2200 j/kg of SBCAPE. The thought of those instability values meeting with those SRH values has me nervous that convection in the open warm sector is being underdone.

[bubba hotep]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So the MJO forecast has changed in our favor for the long range. This is why the GFS is forecasting the motherload coming down.

[wxman57]

Looks like some great biking weather on the 00Z GFS. Below freezing most of the week from the 20th-24th in Houston. 3-6 inches of snow. Over a foot of snow in southern AL. Note the small hole in the snow over the D-FW area. I believe it!

[bubba hotep]

12z FWD sounding is pretty impressive already but a pretty stout warm layer.

[BTAYLOR5021]

Last few winters the moisture has been well east and sometimes south regarding winter systems. Dfw would usually get more winter precip than Atlanta for example. Latley it's been reversed. Extended forecaste showing just that ice/snow for Georgia while cold and dry Texas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looks like some great biking weather on the 00Z GFS. Below freezing most of the week from the 20th-24th in Houston. 3-6 inches of snow. Over a foot of snow in southern AL. Note the small hole in the snow over the D-FW area. I believe it!

http://wxman57.com/images/00ZGFSm.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/00ZGFS.png

If this goes down you can have an early Spring.

[northjaxpro]

So the MJO forecast has changed in our favor for the long range. This is why the GFS is forecasting the motherload coming down.

Yes, that is the reason indeed. Now, we waIt as time progresses to see if the EURO will flip its script pertaining to the long range arctic cold dropping southbound!

[cheezyWXguy]

Huge expansion west of the mdt risk in the new spc outlook, but removal of the hatched tornado area. I suspect they’re being cautious, and think this will be added back in at some point. 6z nam still shows SRH values at 400-500, and is initializing 3-4 degrees too cold. Current conditions are more in line with the hrrr, which forecasts up to 2200 j/kg of SBCAPE. The thought of those instability values meeting with those SRH values has me nervous that convection in the open warm sector is being underdone.

And sure enough the hatched risk is back and has been dramatically expanded. 15% has been added to the Sabine valley as well

[orangeblood]

So the MJO forecast has changed in our favor for the long range. This is why the GFS is forecasting the motherload coming down.

Yes, that is the reason indeed. Now, we waIt as time progresses to see if the EURO will flip its script pertaining to the long range arctic cold dropping southbound!

Yep, the GFS has been taking the Euro to the woodshed with it's MJO forecast....impressive! Upgrades appear to be working!

[WacoWx]

And sure enough the hatched risk is back and has been dramatically expanded. 15% has been added to the Sabine valley as well

Can you point me to this graphic?

[Yukon Cornelius]

The forecast still seems to be holding strong with a 50% chance of snow up this way tonight and tomorrow morning. I guess we’ll see.

[cheezyWXguy]

And sure enough the hatched risk is back and has been dramatically expanded. 15% has been added to the Sabine valley as well

Can you point me to this graphic?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov

[Cerlin]

Well, the 12z NAM 3k has a small snow band for parts of DFW but that’s pretty much the only model showing anything snow wise in the metroplex. The northward shift has been showing itself for the past few runs. Not surprising that models have dropped the support for wrap around flakes.

[wxman57]

Looks like some great biking weather on the 00Z GFS. Below freezing most of the week from the 20th-24th in Houston. 3-6 inches of snow. Over a foot of snow in southern AL. Note the small hole in the snow over the D-FW area. I believe it!

http://wxman57.com/images/00ZGFSm.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/00ZGFS.png

If this goes down you can have an early Spring.

I'm not holding my breath.

[rwfromkansas]

Relying on wrap-around is a fool's errand. It's too risky. I expect zip tomorrow.

[Cerlin]

Relying on wrap-around is a fool's errand. It's too risky. I expect zip tomorrow.

Agreed. It’s typical for there to be less precipitation than forecasted and it requires too many variables to line up perfectly to even have a dusting.

[bubba hotep]

Taking the 12z FWD sounding and looking at the 12z HREF... things really need to line out fast for DFW and points off to the NE or there could be big trouble.

[orangeblood]

5 Day Averages...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

5 Day Averages...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2020011006/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_12.png

Weather stuff!