Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

End of 0z GFS features a multi-day Sleet Storm across Oklahoma & parts of Texas, mostly along I-44, before that transitions into Snow

[Iceresistance]

CFSv2 (On College of DuPage) is noting this too

[AustinTXResident]

The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are above freezing for Austin and Dallas throughout the next 15-16 days.

[Iceresistance]

It has trended a little warmer on the 6z, but there is developing GFS consistency of a storm just after New Years across the Central & Southern Plains

[opticsguy]

Archived from February. The GFS had the cold nailed (maybe underestimated) a week out.

[wxman57]

I think I'll go with the 6Z GFS which shows no winter weather and only brief seasonal cold. There are tremendous run-to-run model differences (GFS). Still, the surface maps don't match the 500mb flow pattern, particularly in the 00Z run. I told my NASA hypersonic jet pilot that he can have off through New Year's weekend. Just last Sunday evening, the 00Z GFS was predicting a big ice storm along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday, Jan. 4th. Now it has south wind and steadily rising temps after next weekend's cold front. Careful believing these extended range (beyond 10-days) GFS predictions. I won't be concerned until they show up in the 7-10 day period in multiple models. Workers at my wall and its two diverters say all is well. It's stronger than ever.

[Cpv17]

I think I'll go with the 6Z GFS which shows no winter weather and only brief seasonal cold. There are tremendous run-to-run model differences (GFS). Still, the surface maps don't match the 500mb flow pattern, particularly in the 00Z run. I told my NASA hypersonic jet pilot that he can have off through New Year's weekend. Just last Sunday evening, the 00Z GFS was predicting a big ice storm along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday, Jan. 4th. Now it has south wind and steadily rising temps after next weekend's cold front. Careful believing these extended range (beyond 10-days) GFS predictions. I won't be concerned until they show up in the 7-10 day period in multiple models. Workers at my wall and its two diverters say all is well. It's stronger than ever.

Ehhh, Mother Nature has a way of balancing itself out.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has the first storm miss us for snow because it trended faster, but the 2nd piece of energy that is behind it does bring snow for Oklahoma & Far Northern Texas

[bubba hotep]

One note of caution regarding the longer range ensembles, while trends have been more encouraging there is still a very strong polar vortex. We need the Pacific jet extension in this upcoming sequence to be shifted more towards the equator than we have seen so far this winter season (stronger polar vortex tends to favor a poleward shifted Pacific jet). The current Asian mountain torque event is following a favorable sequence but we still need the Pacific jet extension to shake up the current pattern. So, with the MJO still hung up in P7 and the image below (shows a strong vortex, we want to see all of those lines start diving towards 0), I am still not 100% sold on a wide spread flip to colder weather. At a minimum, chances are increasing for better shots of cold but there is still some work to do before we see a flip to sustained wide spread cold, IMHO.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has the first storm miss us for snow because it trended faster, but the 2nd piece of energy that is behind it does bring snow for Oklahoma & Far Northern Texas

I'm liking the trend of the northern and southern stream interacting which was lacking in the 240+ range but now inside 10 days they are seeing it better.

[Snowman65]

We are about to wrap up the warmest December ever, and I think that trend will continue for Jan and Feb, just a hunch.

[Iceresistance]

Oh jeez!


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Yikes.png

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has a brief hard freeze for D-FW on the 7th and maybe a light freeze for Houston on the 8th. Nothing more. Still too far out to have any confidence in any run at all. Even 7 days before last February's major cold, the European model only forecast one day near freezing for the low in Houston. I kept all the model forecasts that I plotted in a spreadsheet.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS also features a smidgen of snow very close to Houston at +336 Hours, Heat Miser's Final Wall has fallen on the 12z GFS!

ETA: Gets pushed out before it could unleash a big wave, unless that new wave overpowers that.

[Ntxw]

All of the guidance now sends the Aleutian ridge poleward and sets up a pseudo Aleutian trough. That raises heights near and off the west coast.

Big chunk of western and southwestern Alaska is expecting rain. Need shorts up there!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Still hope for you Texas folk. The good news is that the pattern changed. As a CO resident, this pattern is perfect for us skiers. I havent had a chance to look at many analogs and come up with my biased opinion, but when i do, i will let you guys know, but winter will always show up at some point. It's possible during the transition out of La nina to El nino, which Ntx described in an earlier post.

Merry Christmas fellas!

You cheated. You had to move north in the mountains to see snow. That’s not the same as seeing it in Sugar Land lol

Well, this has been the least amount of snow in HISTORY, so dont feel too jealous. It's been greaat trying to understand the dynamics here in Denver. Understanding the best case scenario for snow, what the u[per levels look like, etc. Been a treat.

Typically they get high pressures rushing down the spine of the rockies and through orographic lift, snow bands form. Im further west and closer to the foothills, so i see more than downtown and much more than the airport.

[wxman57]

12z GFS also features a smidgen of snow very close to Houston at +336 Hours, Heat Miser's Final Wall has fallen on the 12z GFS!

Nonsense! The wall is quite fine. Occasionally, I need to open up the drain plug and eliminate some of the cold air pressure building up to prevent a major outbreak. Sometimes Houston may see a very light freeze in such cases.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh jeez!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Yikes.%20png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Yik%20es.png

I'm going to stasrt fining you everytime you post fantasy land GFS!

I like looking at fantasy land only for educational purposes.

[Iceresistance]

Oh jeez!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Yikes.%20png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Yik%20es.png

I'm going to stasrt fining you everytime you post fantasy land GFS!

I like looking at fantasy land only for educational purposes.

Oh you're no fun!

Either way, that really got me because the MSLP fell to 516 as far south as the Red River, which is not very common, & it's the 2nd wave.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS also features a smidgen of snow very close to Houston at +336 Hours, Heat Miser's Final Wall has fallen on the 12z GFS!

Nonsense! The wall is quite fine. Occasionally, I need to open up the drain plug and eliminate some of the cold air pressure building up to prevent a major outbreak. Sometimes Houston may see a very light freeze in such cases.

Well, I was going to correct that because it got pushed out before it could push even more into the Gulf Coast, I now can say that it put pressure on your final wall, but it still stands.