Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Texas Snow]

Blah blah blah. There may be the potential for some snow in the D-FW area on the 13th (which in heatmiser terms means book it!!!) Blah blah blah.

This is how I read that post

[funster]

Winter (seasonal January weather) is coming!

Nothing extreme in the 12Z GFS. It has a light freeze (lower 30s) for Houston area the 13th and 19th. There may be the potential for some snow in the D-FW area on the 13th. Hard freeze possible up there, but it should be VERY short-lived. Seems like seasonal January weather, to me.

[Ntxw]

GFS wants to shunt a lot of the cold to the east, Euro wants to split it way out west. Which now ?

Though the Euro crashes it down anyway, weight. In line with CMC.

[orangeblood]

GFS wants to shunt a lot of the cold to the east, Euro wants to split it way out west. Which now ?

Though the Euro crashes it down anyway, weight. In line with CMC.

sub 510s showing up in SW Montana now, even more extreme than yesterday's run...

[Ntxw]

GFS wants to shunt a lot of the cold to the east, Euro wants to split it way out west. Which now ?

Though the Euro crashes it down anyway, weight. In line with CMC.

Even more extreme than yesterday's run...
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/montana/apparent_temperature_f/1704369600/1705147200-US053p3IAAE.png

Having the PV lobe over MT and WY is crazy. Our latitude would resemble southern Canada.

[WacoWx]

My ski gear is not rated for -49.

[Stratton23]

60 below , thats just down right evil cold lol, the GFS is too far east with the cold, and I think the euro might be too far west, but we shall see

[Ntxw]

60 below , thats just down right evil cold lol, the GFS is too far east with the cold, and I think the euro might be too far west, but we shall see

The Euro is an anomaly event. We get really cold just when the PV lobe touches the US border. Having it deep into the central United States just doesn't happen.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx is it even possible for the PV lobe to go any further south than the US border? Truely an insane run

[Ntxw]

The only year I could find with that magnitude came crashing into the US was mid January 1985 and focused on the Eastern US.

[Ntxw]

Ntwx is it even possible for the PV to go any further south than the US border?

You have PVa anomalies that can drag some of the cold like what happened in 2021. The Arctic PV lobes meandered around the US/Canadian border in that event. 1985 it came down over the Great Lakes. But yeah it just shows the intensity of the blocking that's shoved the entire Arctic way to the south.

[gpsnowman]

The only year I could find with that magnitude came crashing into the US was mid January 1985 and focused on the Eastern US.

It was so cold in DC during that time, Ronald Reagan's inauguration was moved indoors.

[Gotwood]

GFS wants to shunt a lot of the cold to the east, Euro wants to split it way out west. Which now ?

Though the Euro crashes it down anyway, weight. In line with CMC.

Even more extreme than yesterday's run...
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/montana/apparent_temperature_f/1704369600/1705147200-US053p3IAAE.png

Having the PV lobe over MT and WY is crazy. Our latitude would resemble southern Canada.

Isn’t the Euro usually a more conservative model? What would temps get like down here if that were to verify?

[Brent]

That euro run was kind of hilarious

[rwfromkansas]

I would lean toward the Euro on the cold being a bit west. But, probably not as far south and west as it shows. Seems unlikely, but who knows. I do note the Euro despite showing that intense cold, shows no snow for TX.

[Stratton23]

Its kind of ironic that the Euro is the one showing the extreme cold run, when its usually the GFS that does that, if this euro run verifies, we would be put in the arctic prison for quite a while lol

[Ntxw]

GFS wants to shunt a lot of the cold to the east, Euro wants to split it way out west. Which now ?

Though the Euro crashes it down anyway, weight. In line with CMC.

sub 510s showing up in SW Montana now, even more extreme than yesterday's run...
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/westzoomed/z500_anom/1704369600/1705147200-CnWXFjQrfGM.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/montana/apparent_temperature_f/1704369600/1705147200-US053p3IAAE.png

Flip this map upside down and that's what it normally should be.

[gpsnowman]

I can't imagine 50 or 60 below. Yikes. No thanks. Gimmie a few days in the 20s with a footer and I'll be happy.

[Iceresistance]

It's normally the GFS or the CMC that does the extreme cold, it is striking that it is the Euro doing the absurd runs. Which is crazy considering the Euro is normally conservative for runs like this.

[nathanc1969]