Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

One thing to note, the Euro Op is much faster with the arrival of the arctic air, it starts to overtake the state by the 6th so 8 says from now, much quicker than other guidance

Expansive area of cold in Siberia currently that crossed from the Arctic this past week. It will move through the Beaufort Sea(thank you Beaufort High) by mid week and settle over Canada. By the end of the week we will see it pool in Southern Canada, that's when -30s and -40s will be primed. We don't need to wait till fantasy land to see it happen.



IMO the stronger we see the Beaufort high modeled the colder the runs will be because it will reflect the true value of the cold air mass.

The severe -AO block will then force it southward.

[Ntxw]

IMO the stronger we see the Beaufort high modeled the colder the runs will be because it will reflect the true value of the cold air mass.

To follow up the strongest I could see in the Euro is 1060 over the Arctic. The record in the Arctic-Beaufort region was Feb 2021 near 1065mb.

[Brent]

Met here just posted a graphic from the Euro showing a high of 10 on January 9th

Temps drop below freezing next Sunday and stay there til the following Friday at least

[JayDT]

You know things are definitely getting exciting when both Ntxw and orangeblood are posting!

[Tireman4]

Well, again not to break up the future Winter cold, but this storm over Galveston Bay is still significant. It is still showing tornadic echoes and I wonder what it will look like after it reaches the other side. Until this front passes by and the warm sector transfers to cool and dry, this will be a headache for the Houston Metro area. Damage reports are coming in from all areas affected ( northern part of Houston, southern part as well as NE)

Edit: I was right...


Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
223 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

TXC071-282100-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-241228T2100Z/
Chambers TX-
223 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY...

At 222 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Smith Point, or 10 miles southeast of Beach City,
moving northeast at 35 mph. This storm has previously produced a
tornado. Another is likely ongoing, but cannot be confirmed due to
no debris over the waters.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Chambers County, including the following locations...
Oak Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

If on or near Galveston bay, get away from the water and move to
safe shelter immediately. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Severe thunderstorms can produce
large capsizing waves, even on small bodies of water. Move into dock
and seek safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 2959 9446 2951 9480 2961 9483 2975 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 237DEG 29KT 2959 9476

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

03

[Ntxw]

Well, again not to break up the future Winter cold, but this storm over Galveston Bay is still significant. It is still showing tornadic echoes and I wonder what it will look like after it reaches the other side. Until this front passes by and the warm sector transfers to cool and dry, this will be a headache for the Houston Metro area. Damage reports are coming in from all areas affected ( northern part of Houston, southern part as well as NE)

West of I-45 should be done soon, east still has some time to go. Not fun down there and Louisiana is probably in angst. Definitely worth the look back at why models got it wrong to the south.

[Tireman4]

Well, again not to break up the future Winter cold, but this storm over Galveston Bay is still significant. It is still showing tornadic echoes and I wonder what it will look like after it reaches the other side. Until this front passes by and the warm sector transfers to cool and dry, this will be a headache for the Houston Metro area. Damage reports are coming in from all areas affected ( northern part of Houston, southern part as well as NE)

West of I-45 should be done soon, east still has some time to go. Not fun down there and Louisiana is probably in angst. Definitely worth the look back at why models got it wrong to the south.

The readings too. They were not as stout as the Christmas eve discrete cells but yet were stronger. The spin rate was not as pronounced, nor were the lapse rate in atmosphere. Mother Nature never ceases to amaze. I was banking on I45 to the East. I will say there is one cell that might clip us working its way down I10 before it moves NE. After that, the Houston Metro should be done, but toward Louisiana (Beaumont), could be a long day.

[Tireman4]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
231 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

TXC071-282100-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-241228T2100Z/
Chambers TX-
231 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY...

At 230 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles northeast of
Smith Point, or 13 miles southeast of Beach City, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2959 9446 2955 9471 2964 9474 2975 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 246DEG 31KT 2961 9468

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

03

[Texas Snowman]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
354 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southwestern Louisiana...and southeastern Texas.

&&

TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 254DEG 26KT 2982 9395

$$

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 353 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Port Arthur, moving east at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

The tornado will be near... Port Arthur and Groves around 400 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 254DEG 26KT 2982 9395

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

[869MB]

Well, again not to break up the future Winter cold, but this storm over Galveston Bay is still significant. It is still showing tornadic echoes and I wonder what it will look like after it reaches the other side. Until this front passes by and the warm sector transfers to cool and dry, this will be a headache for the Houston Metro area. Damage reports are coming in from all areas affected ( northern part of Houston, southern part as well as NE)

West of I-45 should be done soon, east still has some time to go. Not fun down there and Louisiana is probably in angst. Definitely worth the look back at why models got it wrong to the south.

Trey Greenwood took notice yesterday of the change on the 12/27 12Z NAM run which depicted the jet streak still digging on the back side of the trough as compared to earlier runs depicting those winds rounding the base and punching out into the warm sector over extreme East TX and Western LA. He didn’t know if it was the beginning of a trend or just one anomalous run. But when I saw your post from yesterday showing the GFS trend of a slightly more southern digging trough over Texas, I knew then that the GFS was caving to the NAM and the SPC should probably pull the Slight Risk westward to encompass most of SE TX all the way down to the coast - And pull the Enhanced Risk slightly more west closer to the Houston Metro. I should have listened to my gut and posted my thoughts about this on yesterday after watching Trey’s video.

[869MB]

As far as cold weather prospects in January, I thought I would share this tweet by Tomer Burg regarding the possibility of a colder air mass invading the US in January. Tomer is someone I’ve followed for years and never over-hypes weather patterns or trends on his profile. So I would strongly recommend anyone interested in long term trends or data analysis to follow him as well.

Regarding the forthcoming potential for an artic airmass invading portions of our region, I think you cold weather lovers may find his latest tweets intriguing…

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1873101373694447725



 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1873102412317401500



 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1873103656020787325



 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1873104774029295680

[Texas Snowman]

Appears to still be on the ground in Cameron Parrish…

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
354 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southwestern Louisiana...and southeastern Texas.

&&

TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 254DEG 26KT 2982 9395

$$

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 353 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Port Arthur, moving east at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

The tornado will be near... Port Arthur and Groves around 400 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 254DEG 26KT 2982 9395

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

[Texas Snowman]

Wow…

 https://x.com/us_stormwatch/status/1873123081386115148

[Brent]

Big winter storm on the GFS at day 10

Well down into Texas

[wxman22]

The 18Z GFS has a full fledge winter storm with the system around the 7th/8th.

[Stratton23]

GFS goes gung
ho with the cold!

[cajungal]

The 18Z GFS has a full fledge winter storm with the system around the 7th/8th.

https://i.ibb.co/z77hN1M/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-41.png


https://i.ibb.co/pwDWvSf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-42.png

If only that could push much further south and east into Louisiana.

[Texas Snowman]

Praying for these folks…

 https://x.com/stormchaserhtx/status/1873108132374954329

[Stratton23]

cajungal plenty of time for that to change

[Texas Snowman]

Another wow from this radar shot…

 https://x.com/collingrosswx/status/1873103014179029177