Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

2 members over a foot of snow here on the EPS around January 8th

Interesting

At the very least it’s a good sign.

[Ntxw]

Looks like Atlantic side blocking will be sustained on ensembles, that's been the big surprise. Plenty of big rolling systems into January, will cold come with it?

[Brent]

Looks like Atlantic side blocking will be sustained on ensembles, that's been the big surprise. Plenty of big rolling systems into January, will cold come with it?

It definitely looks active. Im glad for that. This month has been awful here 0.01"

Well just have to worry about the cold later isn't that how it always goes here for the best setups anyway

[Ntxw]

Looks like Atlantic side blocking will be sustained on ensembles, that's been the big surprise. Plenty of big rolling systems into January, will cold come with it?

It definitely looks active. Im glad for that. This month has been awful here 0.01"

Well just have to worry about the cold later isn't that how it always goes here for the best setups anyway

Climo helps especially for you guys along and north of I-40, doesn't need to be real cold with stj influence. Kind of pattern that a good storm can pull on the northwest side. I do hope one or two hits. Jan 8-12 seems ripe for a big one to cross the country. It can't cut into the Lakes so might be southern tier-> east coast big one.

[Brent]

Looks like Atlantic side blocking will be sustained on ensembles, that's been the big surprise. Plenty of big rolling systems into January, will cold come with it?

It definitely looks active. Im glad for that. This month has been awful here 0.01"

Well just have to worry about the cold later isn't that how it always goes here for the best setups anyway

Climo helps especially for you guys along and north of I-40, doesn't need to be real cold with stj influence. Kind of pattern that a good storm can pull on the northwest side. I do hope one or two hits. Jan 8-12 seems ripe for a big one to cross the country. It can't cut into the Lakes so might be southern tier-> east coast big one.

Ironically that was the same time as the big storm up here last year

Lets see if we can follow the trend haha

Gulf and Louisiana came later cause I remember I wasn't paying attention when we got a few flakes as it passed by

[Ntxw]

West based -NAO in the past have been very effective at delivering winter storms. With cold air source nearby and peak January climo, interest in the models from Jan 5th onwards is probably going to increase in the coming days.

I used DFW's largest snow events (minus pre-1948) composite at 500mb. I have the data easily accessible but it applies regionwide as well. This upcoming pattern structure is Subtropical jet dominated.

[snownado]

DFW should end up tying the record high minimum for today (62*F).

[Ntxw]

DFW should end up tying the record high minimum for today (62*F).

Dewpoints near 65! Then the bottom falls out tomorrow night into the single digits, talk about dry static shock!

[snownado]

DFW should end up tying the record high minimum for today (62*F).

Dewpoints near 65! Then the bottom falls out tomorrow night into the single digits, talk about dry static shock!

Out of curiosity, what is the lomgest consecutive 80*F+ streak on record for DFW in December?

[Ntxw]

DFW should end up tying the record high minimum for today (62*F).

Dewpoints near 65! Then the bottom falls out tomorrow night into the single digits, talk about dry static shock!

Out of curiosity, what is the lomgest consecutive 80*F+ streak on record for DFW in December?

2025 ongoing. 2021 had 8 cases of 80F or higher (almost 5 but one day Christmas week stayed just below) but not consecutive scattered throughout the month and didn't see any with more than 2 consecutive that year. It's been a record stretch. The other years had 2 or 3 max.

[snownado]

Dewpoints near 65! Then the bottom falls out tomorrow night into the single digits, talk about dry static shock!

Out of curiosity, what is the lomgest consecutive 80*F+ streak on record for DFW in December?

2025 ongoing. 2021 had 8 cases of 80F or higher (almost 5 but one day Christmas week stayed just below) but not consecutive scattered throughout the month and didn't see any with more than 2 consecutive that year. It's been a record stretch. The other years had 2 or 3 max.

https://i.imgur.com/Q90y5gq.png

Thanks!

Kind impressive too coming right off an October and November that both tied for the 2nd most 80*F+ days ever.

[Harp.1]

I sure hope the ensembles are giving us more hope than the operational runs. Ugh!

[Stratton23]

do not worry about the operational runs at this range, they ae going to struggle when you are talking about a pattern change like this at this range, i will say though it does appear models are trending towards the euros idea of an active storm track undercutting blocking to the north in canada

[txtwister78]

Yeah as mentioned a few days ago with an active southern jet coupled with high latitude blocking mixed with January climatology and at least you're giving yourself a chance for some fun and games for winter weather lovers across this region of the country.

[TomballEd]

I don't see anything screaming for more than normal cold weather of the type that arrives late tomorrow on the ensembles. I will note February 2021 happened in an otherwise uneventful season. A winter version of the 'Its Only Takes One'. A ground white with frozen particles of drizzle was not my idea of winter fun.

[Stratton23]

Pretty clear - EPO/AO trend on all ensembles today starting around the 10th of january and beyond, I do love seeing the - NAO block expending westward over time and ridging setting up just off the west coast, that practically ensures a very far south storm track, cold will come, but i expect to see some fun model runs in the days ahead as models adjust to the blocking pattern coming, this next front will fee so refreshing though

[wxman22]

Its going to be very windy here tomorrow.

[txtwister78]

I don't see anything screaming for more than normal cold weather of the type that arrives late tomorrow on the ensembles. I will note February 2021 happened in an otherwise uneventful season. A winter version of the 'Its Only Takes One'. A ground white with frozen particles of drizzle was not my idea of winter fun.

The 500mb heights on the EPS certainly look more interesting in the 10-15 day range.

In the meantime I agree status quo weather pattern continues. Despite our cool down early this week we warm back up quickly as HP builds back in from the west. Low 80's again possible in my neck of the woods by Friday into next weekend and then we watch for trends beyond that.

I'm more interested in that mid January timeframe because at least there are signals out there that hint at a pattern reshuffle that removes us from the one we've been locked under since the start of winter.

[Stratton23]

New Euro weeklies look even better beyond the 10th, the control run of the weeklies is just insane though lol

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I don't see anything screaming for more than normal cold weather of the type that arrives late tomorrow on the ensembles. I will note February 2021 happened in an otherwise uneventful season. A winter version of the 'Its Only Takes One'. A ground white with frozen particles of drizzle was not my idea of winter fun.

The 500mb heights on the EPS certainly look more interesting in the 10-15 day range.

In the meantime I agree status quo weather pattern continues. Despite our cool down early this week we warm back up quickly as HP builds back in from the west. Low 80's again possible in my neck of the woods by Friday into next weekend and then we watch for trends beyond that.

I'm more interested in that mid January timeframe because at least there are signals out there that hint at a pattern reshuffle that removes us from the one we've been locked under since the start of winter.

Im kinda surprised the ensembles aren't hinting at a ridge over Alaska with the jet extension but admittedly im not a weatherman lol. I just want an active pattern with a few winter storm chances