Pacific Northwest Weather

[R-Dub]

You just wait TT..........You just wait!!!!! The Santa smilies are here for a reason, Western Wa will be looking like a winter wonderland soon

I am sticking by my guns here.
I only brought up Jan 31 1950 to let people (cough cough, TT ,cough cough) know that it still can get quite cold this time of the yr!!!!

I think its great that the models are reversed, GFS showing warmer then other models, I truly think anything is possible including a major arctic outbreak.

[AnthonyC]

TT-SEA,

I don't know what you're reading, but no one has mentioned lowland snow. Not even R-Dub, who is always optimistic about lowland snow. But a pattern change is coming...like I've said in past posts, it may not bring lowland snow, but it should bring wetter weather and mountain snow. It doesn't take much to create a pattern change from the weather we're are currently experiencing.

And honestly, I don't know how you can enjoy this weather...granted it's warm, but it's not sunny. It's been cloudy and mild the past two weeks...I would take this in April, but not the middle, end of January.

And ALL models suggest a cooling trend...it may not be arctic air, but it's something different from the past two weeks. So don't be so dramatic. Although accurate, you come off as too dramatic and that pisses some people off. You basically reiterate the same thing...WINTER'S OVER. But in reality, there's still eight weeks of winter.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

I posted one minute before Anthony's, he must have not read my post before posting his, though I didn't come right out and say "lowland snow" LOL!

[AnthonyC]

Randy,

But in all fairness to TT-SEA, lowland snow is definitely not likely. At this point, I just want snow in the mountains...at least you can drive and see something.

Anthony

PS-If you don't get the money tomorrow, I'll be pissed with the postal service.

[R-Dub]

You have a point Anthony, BUT thinking back, can you think of a arctic outbreak and snow that was predicted a week out?? Sure they would say a little cool down, snow level down to 1,000FT ect, but no where near the extent to what auctually happened.
The Nov 1985 situation was not predicted until it was on top of us, also 1990. Jan 1996 even two days before the outbreak they were calling for a little snow mainly above 500FT, forecasts were mid to upper 40's, (for that week that turned out to be very cold), then the next day the forecast dramatically changed from mid/upper 40's to upper 20's to near 30. That was one day before we got the start of the event. Nov 1996 That wasn't predicted at all, even that morning when the snow was falling like crazy in downtown Seattle
Dec 96 not predicted until one day before event, supposed to be in the 40's that weekend.
Feb 2001 ONE day notice if that.
What I have learned over the yrs is that when everyone is downplaying what could happen, but the LARGE model spread with arctic air just across the boarder........... BE READY!!!!

[gunner1551]

i am ready man it cant get here soon enough. bring it on as fast as you can mother nature. please we (pleople in the PAC NW) are begging you. even if all u can muster is a few flakes please. and more then a few flakes would be nice. o say 1' or so would be kindly welcomed. lol if this happens i will be very happy. honestly people on a scale of 1-10 what do u think are the chances of snow returning?? i am sitting at about a 6 right now.

[TT-SEA]

Anthony... I don't think I am being dramatic. I am forecasting more of the same. Boring... springlike weather.

By the way... today was very sunny around Seattle. Lots of people in short-sleeved shirts downtown. There is absolutely no way to dislike the weather today. Talk about a "spring in your step".

I was driving across the I-90 bridge at noon with the window open and the tunes turned up. Blue sky... good visibility... people out walking and biking everywhere... clean air... comfortable temperature.

How could you not like the weather today?? There has been quite a bit of sun in the last two weeks. Not everyday... but I have noticed even the clouds are looking more springlike. More puffy and cumulus in nature rather than stratiform and dull.

If I can't have snow... I'll gladly take spring!!

[R-Dub]

I would love this weather if it was APRIL OR MAY!!! But its still January!!! We are in the heart of winter, should be at least snowing in the mountains, with snowlevel of 1-2K, windstorms, heavy rain, exciting stuff like that, NOT grass growing like mad, warm temps, dry day after day! I'll take this in April, NOT January

**EDIT**
HA HA! A mad Santa smilely, How can I look like I am mad with that LOL!

[TT-SEA]

Gotta go with the flow. This year is exceptionally beautiful. We will have more storms... heavy rain... wind... snow in the mountains. Maybe in March?? Maybe even April.

At least now its February... and that is normally a spring month in Seattle. Being angry at great weather is a waste of time and kind of silly.

I really felt energized by the awesome weather today.

[AnthonyC]

TT-SEA,

I guess we have different opinions on how we like our weather. This kind of weather in January is depressing and gloomy...no pun intended. No winter sports, no weather watching, no extreme weather...that's depressing to me. Like I've said before, this would be fine in LATE APRIL, EARLY MAY...but the end of January is ridiculous. You might like it now, but just wait till we have a water shortage and no power over the summer.

In any event, it's also ludicrous to state winter is over, because in reality it's not over until the end of March. Even if February isn't a decent weather month, March and April can be awesome for the mountains...and good-sized windstorms/rainstorms can materialize over the lowlands. And we all can't forget March of 2002...Bellingham was in the deep freeze for almost the entire month with a foot of snow on the ground. Although in reality this was a fluke, it still gives us hope.

I guess what I'm trying to say to you is I get tired of your pessimistic OUTLOOK at the rest of the winter...I understand you're reporting the facts for up to two weeks, but stating that the next EIGHT weeks will have no winter is stupid. And in reality, probably incorrect. This is just my opinion...you can do what you want with it.

On the other hand, I do get tired of people advertising an arctic outbreak and nothing happening. It gets hopes up, and then crushes them. And I do admitt that I've fallen victim to this many times, but stating something will happen when it's obviously not gonna happen is dumb.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Snowwiz needs to hurry up and get back on the forum, so I have a little backup for this coming weekend/month!

Anyway cooling down rapidly here, hopefully we will see a little frost tonight to slow down the growth rate of the grass!!

1/31/05 LK Goodwin WA
8:12:23 PM CURRENT
Partly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 42.7
Humidity (%) 87.9
Wind (mph) ESE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.45
Dew Point: 40.3 ºF

[TT-SEA]

Anthony... I said we will likely get some bigger storms. I said in my last post maybe March?? Even April.

But widespread lowland snow is not going to happen.

Also... it is too early to say that summer will be so bad. Warm, dry winters tend to lead to wetter summers. Plus heavy snow in March and April in the mountains would almost be better than heavy snow now and then an extremely warm March.

I predict March will be quite stormy around here and the mountains will be slammed and there will be lots of lowland rain.

Until then... I soak up the sun and enjoy the warm weather!!

BTW - see below. This would HAVE to mean good snow in the mountains on Friday night... before the ridge pops back up next week.

[R-Dub]

I do agree with TT about how dry winters tend to lead to wet cool summers.

Anything is possible this yr though, it has been SO unpredictible.

[TT-SEA]

And then back to warmer weather by Monday...

[R-Dub]

I have a question for you expert model readers..........
Okay this link (GFS day 8 model) what does all those very closely spaced lines mean way up in the top right part of the map?? I have never seen that before. Does it mean a huge storm, or cold up there??????

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

[TT-SEA]

Big storm on the arctic circle.

[TT-SEA]

By next week... RIDGE!! Warm and dry (probably foggy near the water)...

[TT-SEA]

Every run shows the same thing. Ridging will quickly return next week.

[R-Dub]

Well its bed time for me, have a great night everyone!

Temp down to 41.4 degrees!

[andycottle]

Looking tonight models 00z GFS, GEM, and ECMWF....it appears that the models all indicate a slight cooling trend for say 6th - 8th time period with H500 of 528 to 534DM. So will see what happens in terms of weather.

44 degrees with humidity 84% here at 10:17pm. -- Andy