Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

12z GFS also features a smidgen of snow very close to Houston at +336 Hours, Heat Miser's Final Wall has fallen on the 12z GFS!

Nonsense! The wall is quite fine. Occasionally, I need to open up the drain plug and eliminate some of the cold air pressure building up to prevent a major outbreak. Sometimes Houston may see a very light freeze in such cases.

Well, I was going to correct that because it got pushed out before it could push even more into the Gulf Coast, I now can say that it put pressure on your final wall, but it still stands.

Keep at it Iceresistance, so what if it's long range. They could easily show nonstop torch too. It's not like the models are only limited to showing only cold lalaland . The more it shows cold the better.

[harp]

Fwiw, the CMC puts Texas and Louisiana in the deep freeze. I know…. it’s the CMC…

[Ntxw]

Fwiw, the CMC puts Texas and Louisiana in the deep freeze. I know…. it’s the CMC…

It should be the coldest surge of the season so far (not saying much since many have barely had a freeze if at all). It'll actually feel like winter for a change.

CMC got a recent upgrade, while I'm skeptical of the very low numbers it's showing for New Year's weekend, we can test it out.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1475093610932707332

[Ntxw]

One note of caution regarding the longer range ensembles, while trends have been more encouraging there is still a very strong polar vortex. We need the Pacific jet extension in this upcoming sequence to be shifted more towards the equator than we have seen so far this winter season (stronger polar vortex tends to favor a poleward shifted Pacific jet). The current Asian mountain torque event is following a favorable sequence but we still need the Pacific jet extension to shake up the current pattern. So, with the MJO still hung up in P7 and the image below (shows a strong vortex, we want to see all of those lines start diving towards 0), I am still not 100% sold on a wide spread flip to colder weather. At a minimum, chances are increasing for better shots of cold but there is still some work to do before we see a flip to sustained wide spread cold, IMHO.

https://fh004579.webs.act.reading.ac.uk/spv_ens/gfs_gefs_u1060_timeseries.png

It would be most helpful if the stratosphere can help out to sustain it. We are getting a good bout of tropospheric PV disruption. That was the insurance policy last December before the big SSW. I'm kind of on the fence the past decade after seeing some strat events in action that it's truly needed for -AO dispersion. It's kind of the chicken or egg question, is it bottom up or top down? I've become a believer it takes a troposphere event to jumpstart something in the strat since not much goes on up there. It doesn't get much attention because it isn't flashy that shows a hot strat. It takes a wave number 1 or wave 2 event to throw the SPV off its rocker.



We talk about tendencies, the AO has flipped in mid December and it's well sustained so far. This flipped occurred as the MJO began to move.

[Iceresistance]

Nonsense! The wall is quite fine. Occasionally, I need to open up the drain plug and eliminate some of the cold air pressure building up to prevent a major outbreak. Sometimes Houston may see a very light freeze in such cases.

Well, I was going to correct that because it got pushed out before it could push even more into the Gulf Coast, I now can say that it put pressure on your final wall, but it still stands.

Keep at it Iceresistance, so what if it's long range. They could easily show nonstop torch too. It's not like the models are only limited to showing only cold lalaland . The more it shows cold the better.

The long range is anyone's guess right now, but if it keeps showing the cold like what the 12z GFS did, were likely going to be into an active Winter Pattern in the near-future.

EDIT: 12z GEFS Member #3 has caught my eye, basically everyone here in Central & Northern Texas would love the snowfall just as much as I will!

[Ntxw]

Look at the trends from the Euro for next weekend. It went from much ado about nothing to -20s down the front range at 850mb. Surface high went from non-existent to trending upward. Only 1036mb right now but if it keeps trending up, it's a good air mass. Front range will be cold.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

One note of caution regarding the longer range ensembles, while trends have been more encouraging there is still a very strong polar vortex. We need the Pacific jet extension in this upcoming sequence to be shifted more towards the equator than we have seen so far this winter season (stronger polar vortex tends to favor a poleward shifted Pacific jet). The current Asian mountain torque event is following a favorable sequence but we still need the Pacific jet extension to shake up the current pattern. So, with the MJO still hung up in P7 and the image below (shows a strong vortex, we want to see all of those lines start diving towards 0), I am still not 100% sold on a wide spread flip to colder weather. At a minimum, chances are increasing for better shots of cold but there is still some work to do before we see a flip to sustained wide spread cold, IMHO.

https://fh004579.webs.act.reading.ac.uk/spv_ens/gfs_gefs_u1060_timeser%20%20ies.png

It would be most helpful if the stratosphere can help out to sustain it. We are getting a good bout of tropospheric PV disruption. That was the insurance policy last December before the big SSW. I'm kind of on the fence the past decade after seeing some strat events in action that it's truly needed for -AO dispersion. It's kind of the chicken or egg question, is it bottom up or top down? I've become a believer it takes a troposphere event to jumpstart something in the strat since not much goes on up there. It doesn't get much attention because it isn't flashy that shows a hot strat. It takes a wave number 1 or wave 2 event to throw the SPV off its rocker.

https://i.imgur.com/5%20cZY07o.gif

We talk about tendencies, the AO has flipped in mid December and it's well sustained so far. This flipped occurred as the MJO began to move.

Agree on your chicken and egg theory. Firm believer it starts from below. Indications are we may get enough poleward heat flux to disrupt the SPV. Could lead to something further down the road.

[AustinTXResident]

Archived from February. The GFS had the cold nailed (maybe underestimated) a week out.

https://media.patriots.win/post/I9hyPGqhmT9h.jpeg

ICON and GEM were better.

[Cerlin]

Been absent a little recently due to spending the holiday with family, but I’m quite intrigued at our upcoming pattern. I fully expect the GFS to flip flop with each run but what’s good is that the trends are there. Not too concerned on which potential shortwave produces but I’m thinking 2022 will start off nicely! Just hoping it starts on the 2nd after I fly back in town.

[AustinTXResident]

Could have been just a little worse....

Christmas Day 2021 at Austin Camp Mabry was the 2nd-warmest in the 124-year climate record with an average temperature of 70.5°. 2016 remains the warmest with an average of 74.0°.

Yesterday's high temperature was "only" 79°. That was the 5th-warmest Christmas Day high temperature on record, behind 1955 (90°) and 2016, 1964, & 1951 (each with 80°).

Yesterday's low temperature of 62° was the 3rd-warmest Christmas Day low temperature on record, behind only 2016 (68°) and 1934 (64°).

Austin Camp Mabry remains on track to obliterate the existing record for warmest December. For the entire year, however, 2021 will end up about 12th-warmest.

[Iceresistance]

This might be the 0z Euro-Ensembles, if the first wave is a glancing blow, look what's coming behind it.

(850mb Temp Anomalies)


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

[WinterMax]

This might be the 0z Euro-Ensembles, if the first wave is a glancing blow, look what's coming behind it.

(850mb Temp Anomalies)

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

That could easily be diverted east, lol

[AustinTXResident]

The ECMWF and GFS ensemble means continue to forecast no freezing temperatures for Austin and Dallas through January 9th and January 10th, respectively (the end of their runs).

Even Oklahoma City does not get nailed. It is forecast to have a few days with lows in the mid-20s. Nothing historic about that.

Looking farther upstream at Denver: 12° is as cold as it gets. And Ogallala in western Nebraska would hardly notice a few days of +10° for lows.

Even the "Icebox of the Nation" – International Falls, Minnesota – does no worse than –22°.

The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook shows normal to above normal temperatures for virtually all of Texas and Oklahoma.

[TropicalTundra]

The ECMWF and GFS ensemble means continue to forecast no freezing temperatures for Austin and Dallas through January 9th and January 10th, respectively (the end of their runs).

Even Oklahoma City does not get nailed. It is forecast to have a few days with lows in the mid-20s. Nothing historic about that.

Looking farther upstream at Denver: 12° is as cold as it gets. And Ogallala in western Nebraska would hardly notice a few days of +10° for lows.

What about the Canadian? It has basically the entire state of Texas in a freeze on the 3rd. Lol

[Ntxw]

The ECMWF and GFS ensemble means continue to forecast no freezing temperatures for Austin and Dallas through January 9th and January 10th, respectively (the end of their runs).

Even Oklahoma City does not get nailed. It is forecast to have a few days with lows in the mid-20s. Nothing historic about that.

Looking farther upstream at Denver: 12° is as cold as it gets. And Ogallala in western Nebraska would hardly notice a few days of +10° for lows.

What about the Canadian? It has basically the entire state of Texas in a freeze on the 3rd. Lol

He's talking ensemble mean, which basically is an average of all the members. Hottest to coldest.

[TropicalTundra]

The ECMWF and GFS ensemble means continue to forecast no freezing temperatures for Austin and Dallas through January 9th and January 10th, respectively (the end of their runs).

Even Oklahoma City does not get nailed. It is forecast to have a few days with lows in the mid-20s. Nothing historic about that.

Looking farther upstream at Denver: 12° is as cold as it gets. And Ogallala in western Nebraska would hardly notice a few days of +10° for lows.

What about the Canadian? It has basically the entire state of Texas in a freeze on the 3rd. Lol

He's talking ensemble mean, which basically is an average of all the members. Hottest to coldest.

Oops, didn’t see that. Good eye

[orangeblood]

The ECMWF and GFS ensemble means continue to forecast no freezing temperatures for Austin and Dallas through January 9th and January 10th, respectively (the end of their runs).

Even Oklahoma City does not get nailed. It is forecast to have a few days with lows in the mid-20s. Nothing historic about that.

Looking farther upstream at Denver: 12° is as cold as it gets. And Ogallala in western Nebraska would hardly notice a few days of +10° for lows.

Even the "Icebox of the Nation" – International Falls, Minnesota – does no worse than –22°.

The Mean doesn’t tell you much at the surface 5 days plus out, 500 mb is it’s best use IMO.

Only 6 of 50 GEFS Members showing above freezing temps at DFW next 2 weeks - almost all dip below freezing and some quite substantially

[wxman57]

Fwiw, the CMC puts Texas and Louisiana in the deep freeze. I know…. it’s the CMC…

It should be the coldest surge of the season so far (not saying much since many have barely had a freeze if at all). It'll actually feel like winter for a change.

CMC got a recent upgrade, while I'm skeptical of the very low numbers it's showing for New Year's weekend, we can test it out.

The Canadian was consistently too cold with last February's big freeze.

[Ntxw]

Fwiw, the CMC puts Texas and Louisiana in the deep freeze. I know…. it’s the CMC…

It should be the coldest surge of the season so far (not saying much since many have barely had a freeze if at all). It'll actually feel like winter for a change.

CMC got a recent upgrade, while I'm skeptical of the very low numbers it's showing for New Year's weekend, we can test it out.

The Canadian was consistently too cold with last February's big freeze.

And end result was in reality it was consistently cold! I'd take that B grade over the Euro's F- warm grade.

From the Euro showing hardly a freeze and barely below freezing to DFW ~232 hours below freezing was a monumental collapse. I remember those posts!