Texas Winter 2023-2024

[gpsnowman]

GFS wants to shunt a lot of the cold to the east, Euro wants to split it way out west. Which now ?

Though the Euro crashes it down anyway, weight. In line with CMC.

sub 510s showing up in SW Montana now, even more extreme than yesterday's run...
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/westzoomed/z500_anom/1704369600/1705147200-CnWXFjQrfGM.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/montana/apparent_temperature_f/1704369600/1705147200-US053p3IAAE.png

https://i.imgur.com/W3WIyNO.png

Flip this map upside down and that's what it normally should be.

Look at the blocking up top. My goodness.

[bubba hotep]

Individual op run maps are fun and all but are pretty much worthless. I like the 5-day anomaly maps of the ensembles and there has been a pretty intriguing 24-hr change on the GEFS.

You can see higher heights over Greenland and lower heights over the Baja. These types of trends are more important than run to run changes on the ops. Also, some minor changes in the orientation of the Carabbien ridge.

12z Yesterday



12z Today

[Brent]

TWC has me near single digits already next weekend and the apps are usually too warm

[Stratton23]

bubba hoptep like that 12z GEFS run, maybe allows for some energy from the baja to meet up with arctic air, better setup for a southern winter storm

[Tireman4]

I would be very surprised if Houston only sees a light freeze during this upcoming cold event. The projected pattern screams hard freeze, possibly down to the coast. I'm afraid significant cold is coming, and your wall won't be able to stop it.

You're saying 25F or colder by Jan 15th? I'd say possibly upper 20s at IAH. Not talking about late January or February.

Are you two arguing across the hallway at each other? LOL

[Tireman4]

I would be very surprised if Houston only sees a light freeze during this upcoming cold event. The projected pattern screams hard freeze, possibly down to the coast. I'm afraid significant cold is coming, and your wall won't be able to stop it.

You're saying 25F or colder by Jan 15th? I'd say possibly upper 20s at IAH. Not talking about late January or February.

The young rising star versus the venerable, wise veteran … who will prevail?!

I will take the Cleveland Browns fan with experience for 500, Alex!

[WacoWx]

Snow showing up for the first time on my weather app for Dallas Tuesday. 45% chance.

[JayDT]

Snow showing up for the first time on my weather app for Dallas Tuesday. 45% chance.

Yup, just noticed that as well. It’s getting more interesting

[gpsnowman]

Snow showing up for the first time on my weather app for Dallas Tuesday. 45% chance.

That's a high chance this far out. Hopefully that continues to rise.

[txtwister78]

Canadian Ensemble my goodness. Lol. While I get it has a cold bias associated with it typically (particularly the OP), but as I believe Ntxw mentioned prior, the ensemble has done a good job in the past within the medium/long range as it relates to arctic airmasses. That 12z however is off the chart for an ensemble run.

[Iceresistance]

Snow showing up for the first time on my weather app for Dallas Tuesday. 45% chance.

What does OKC look like?

[HockeyTx82]

Snow showing up for the first time on my weather app for Dallas Tuesday. 45% chance.

What app are you using?

[Brent]

One of our TV mets just said HIGHS could be in the teens

[Iceresistance]

One of our TV mets just said HIGHS could be in the teens

What about the lows?

[HockeyTx82]

One of our TV mets just said HIGHS could be in the teens

What about the lows?

You don't want to know, if you have to ask you can't handle it.

[Brent]

One of our TV mets just said HIGHS could be in the teens

What about the lows?

No comment so far I think teens for highs is enough for now

[WacoWx]

Snow showing up for the first time on my weather app for Dallas Tuesday. 45% chance.

What app are you using?

The iPhone app that comes with the phone.

[WacoWx]

Snow showing up for the first time on my weather app for Dallas Tuesday. 45% chance.

What does OKC look like?

35% chance but colder temps.

[Itryatgolf]

Does any have the 12z eps they can post for the 10-15 day timeframe? Thanks in advance. Temp anomalies and 2m temperature

[orangeblood]

Individual op run maps are fun and all but are pretty much worthless. I like the 5-day anomaly maps of the ensembles and there has been a pretty intriguing 24-hr change on the GEFS.

You can see higher heights over Greenland and lower heights over the Baja. These types of trends are more important than run to run changes on the ops. Also, some minor changes in the orientation of the Carabbien ridge.

12z Yesterday

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024010312/gfs-ens_z500aNormMean_namer_10.png

12z Today

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024010412/gfs-ens_z500aNormMean_namer_9.png

Not sure if I'd say worthless...in certain instances, it can be a decent indicator of the potential for a pattern to go to the extremes. With the almost 4 std deviation ULL forecast to move thru the southern plains within the 5 day time frame, the downstream implications for a storm of that magnitude to crash into the Greenland Block and pump that ridge also to the extreme doesn't seem too far fetched. And once you pump a Greenland ridge of that magnitude, chaos could ensue. Anomalous storms are starting to show up within the short range guidance, this isn't 384 hr fantasy land anymore.