Watching tape 2 this evening.
You know... the 1996 storm was a huge mess when it melted. Not fun. I don't think I would want the slush, or the flooding, or all the damage again. Snow is fun... but that looked miserable.
Snow in Seattle always seems to end in a mess. Not a nice slow melt like other places.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
And you trust the GFS model that far out?! And remember, the GFS model is the outlier of all other models...showing more warmth. I'm not gonna argue with you TT-SEA, you could be right. But I find it better/healthier to be optimistic that something will give. If it doesn't, we can honestly say this winter sucked for the lowlands. Just terrible. But I have faith.
"The day before I left, the models showed a little colder weather moving into Western Washington, but I think the models all missed this amazing storm." -Steve Pool on December 29, 1996 while in New York City.
Goodnite to all.
On a side note, the latest episode of 24 was a little slow tonight...I wasn't impressed.
Anthony
"The day before I left, the models showed a little colder weather moving into Western Washington, but I think the models all missed this amazing storm." -Steve Pool on December 29, 1996 while in New York City.
Goodnite to all.
On a side note, the latest episode of 24 was a little slow tonight...I wasn't impressed.
Anthony
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andycottle
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- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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TT-SEA
To sit around and expect a "surprise storm" like 1996 with every low pressure system in the winter is a waste of time. You will be severely disappointed for years and years. That is not optimistic. That is excruciatingly painful.
I find it "better/healthier" to like the weather in all forms. To be able to enjoy and appreciate a beautiful day like today as well as a big snowstorm. Both are abnormal for January but both can happen.
I am telling you guys... if I could choose between the sloppy, disgusting mess of 12/29/96 or a day like today... I would choose 1/31/05 every time.
I find it "better/healthier" to like the weather in all forms. To be able to enjoy and appreciate a beautiful day like today as well as a big snowstorm. Both are abnormal for January but both can happen.
I am telling you guys... if I could choose between the sloppy, disgusting mess of 12/29/96 or a day like today... I would choose 1/31/05 every time.
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TT-SEA
PNA has offically gone negitive as of today!! Continues until it almost tanks, then rises briefly, then looks to drop into negitive once again........
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
AO Forecast.................
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
Looks like 6z GFS never came in last night
NCEP guys still say anything is possible..........
PLAINS/WEST...
THE GENERAL FLOW BUCKLES WEST OF THE BLOCK...SETTING UP A TROUGH
IN THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS UNDER THE POLAR VORTEX AND A RIDGE IN
THE EAST. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN HERE...THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY NR 70N
120W WAS NOT OF MUCH HELP TELECONNECTIONWISE. ENERGY FROM A CLOSED
CYC ALG THE AK COAST GLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST THIS PD...ENDING
UP IN A CLOSED CYC ON THE UKMET AND ECMWF IN THE SOUTHWEST...
NOTHING NEW FOR THAT AREA.
ROTH
Well it never dropped another degree here last night, still at 41 degrees.
Well have a great day everyone, I am off to cut grass like mad!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
AO Forecast.................
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
Looks like 6z GFS never came in last night
NCEP guys still say anything is possible..........
PLAINS/WEST...
THE GENERAL FLOW BUCKLES WEST OF THE BLOCK...SETTING UP A TROUGH
IN THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS UNDER THE POLAR VORTEX AND A RIDGE IN
THE EAST. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN HERE...THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY NR 70N
120W WAS NOT OF MUCH HELP TELECONNECTIONWISE. ENERGY FROM A CLOSED
CYC ALG THE AK COAST GLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST THIS PD...ENDING
UP IN A CLOSED CYC ON THE UKMET AND ECMWF IN THE SOUTHWEST...
NOTHING NEW FOR THAT AREA.
ROTH
Well it never dropped another degree here last night, still at 41 degrees.
Well have a great day everyone, I am off to cut grass like mad!
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
- Category 5
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- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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TT-SEA
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
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- Location: Bellingham, WA
So what is the CDC reforecast model?
"IT SHOULD BE NOTED HERE THAT IN SPITE OF THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THESE MODELS... THE CDC REFORECAST MODEL PREDICTS THAT THE RIDGE AND POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WOULD AMPLIFY AND BEGIN TO RETROGRADE"
This was from the CPC extended forecast discussion. A regime change in weather is forecast, but they do not have much confidence in details.
Yes, Anthony, 24 was a bit lame last night. Why do they think we care about the daughter of the head of CTU? We don't watch the show for things like that. I guess they had to kill time while Jack was on the way to the other building. But it was cool to have Tony come back. I think Cloie will come back at some point too.
"IT SHOULD BE NOTED HERE THAT IN SPITE OF THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THESE MODELS... THE CDC REFORECAST MODEL PREDICTS THAT THE RIDGE AND POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WOULD AMPLIFY AND BEGIN TO RETROGRADE"
This was from the CPC extended forecast discussion. A regime change in weather is forecast, but they do not have much confidence in details.
Yes, Anthony, 24 was a bit lame last night. Why do they think we care about the daughter of the head of CTU? We don't watch the show for things like that. I guess they had to kill time while Jack was on the way to the other building. But it was cool to have Tony come back. I think Cloie will come back at some point too.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
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- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
On the subject of "24"...I think the daughter is going to play a crucial role somehow. That show comes up with twists you would never expect. I actually thought the episode was just as good as always.
TT...Still up to your old tricks...taking the pessimistic road. The national guys have basically said they have no idea what is going to happen beyond day 5, so we don't know either.
That reforecast model sounds interesting. I will try to find out what it is. The last GFS run does seem more eager to build a ridge off the coast instead of over us.
TT...Still up to your old tricks...taking the pessimistic road. The national guys have basically said they have no idea what is going to happen beyond day 5, so we don't know either.
That reforecast model sounds interesting. I will try to find out what it is. The last GFS run does seem more eager to build a ridge off the coast instead of over us.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
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- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Well...how about that? The 18z is showing 850mb temps dropping to -12C early next week. as the time frame narrows the GFS is getting colder. The big change is that it now progs a huge for the east. Thank goodness they will get that awful thing for a while! The longer range stuff still needs work, but things are trending better!
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18Z GFS
Hello everyone...have you guys looked at the latest GFS...a very cold system is forecast to impact your area this weekend...hopefully it will verify as it comes down into my area (Southern California) for the first part of next week....some low snow-levels for you guys.
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TT-SEA
TT-SEA
Look at the 96-114 hr runs of the GFS....thats when youll get your shot of cold air...my experience is that everything outside of 180 hours is totally unreliable w/the GFS...that ridge could end up being over the Aleutians or over Sasketchewan 8 days from now...but we will see!
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TT-SEA
I agree... we will be getting a good shot of rain and mountain snow this weekend. I have been saying that all along. Its about time the mountains got some snow. I predict March will be very snowy up there. Just a feeling.
But I do not see a massive pattern shift that will bring arctic air to Seattle.
Some of these PNW guys are only happy if Seattle gets down to 10 degrees and we get 18 inches of snow. Which... as we saw in 1996 creates an incredible mess when it melts and I do not really want that around here. They do not like warm, sunny weather like we have now and they do not like cold, rainy weather.
And I am constantly accused of being "pessimistic" if I report reality and not fantasy.
The storm this weekend will not feature lowland snow.
But I do not see a massive pattern shift that will bring arctic air to Seattle.
Some of these PNW guys are only happy if Seattle gets down to 10 degrees and we get 18 inches of snow. Which... as we saw in 1996 creates an incredible mess when it melts and I do not really want that around here. They do not like warm, sunny weather like we have now and they do not like cold, rainy weather.
And I am constantly accused of being "pessimistic" if I report reality and not fantasy.
The storm this weekend will not feature lowland snow.
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TT-SEA
And the latest Seattle NWS discussion agrees completely with me...
AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THO THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN A COOL NLY FLOW FOR A PREDOMINATELY DRY SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED LATELY...HOWEVER IT WILL BASICALLY RETURN TO LEVELS THAT ARE MORE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY...LOW IN THE MID 30S HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD...LOTS OF FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER GENERAL TREND LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND TEMPS NORMAL OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL.
AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THO THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN A COOL NLY FLOW FOR A PREDOMINATELY DRY SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED LATELY...HOWEVER IT WILL BASICALLY RETURN TO LEVELS THAT ARE MORE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY...LOW IN THE MID 30S HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD...LOTS OF FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER GENERAL TREND LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND TEMPS NORMAL OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL.
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TT.........There is a good reason we don't want this type of weather all the time.............
We don't want this place looking like southern CA!!!! BROWN AND DEAD from drought and warm! (No offense SOCAL!) I might as well move there if this keeps up! It will look the same eventually. Even last summer by August Western WA was starting to look like crispy critters do to lack of moisture all summer long. Sure if we got another Dec 1996 storm, it would be quite a mess for a little while, but we had no worries about water after that. After that snow melt my dock on LK Goodwin was underwater for a week or two. That entire summer (1997) the lake level stayed fairly high, but the last couple of yrs the lake level in the summer has dropped down to scary levels! WE BETTER HOPE THIS IS NOT A TREND!
I do think western WA will see winter weather from this developing pattern change, you can't ignore what the pros at NCEP are saying TT, they are getting paid (and well I am sure) to come up with these forecasts.
You can't ignore Very NEG PNA and NEG AO.
We don't want this place looking like southern CA!!!! BROWN AND DEAD from drought and warm! (No offense SOCAL!) I might as well move there if this keeps up! It will look the same eventually. Even last summer by August Western WA was starting to look like crispy critters do to lack of moisture all summer long. Sure if we got another Dec 1996 storm, it would be quite a mess for a little while, but we had no worries about water after that. After that snow melt my dock on LK Goodwin was underwater for a week or two. That entire summer (1997) the lake level stayed fairly high, but the last couple of yrs the lake level in the summer has dropped down to scary levels! WE BETTER HOPE THIS IS NOT A TREND!
I do think western WA will see winter weather from this developing pattern change, you can't ignore what the pros at NCEP are saying TT, they are getting paid (and well I am sure) to come up with these forecasts.
You can't ignore Very NEG PNA and NEG AO.
Last edited by R-Dub on Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Like I said yesterday, What winterstorm around here was forecasted more then a day or two in advance??????? None I can think of in my lifetime! When ever there is a pattern change that is not predicted well, usually we get blasted from it. NWS, local guys, nobody forecasts anything but 40's highs and rain, that is until 1-2 days before event. I still remember the NWS forecast for the Feb 2001 snowstorm, it sounded almost identical to what they are saying right now.
Here is my post from yesterday..............
You have a point Anthony, BUT thinking back, can you think of a arctic outbreak and snow that was predicted a week out?? Sure they would say a little cool down, snow level down to 1,000FT ect, but no where near the extent to what auctually happened.
The Nov 1985 situation was not predicted until it was on top of us, also 1990. Jan 1996 even two days before the outbreak they were calling for a little snow mainly above 500FT, forecasts were mid to upper 40's, (for that week that turned out to be very cold), then the next day the forecast dramatically changed from mid/upper 40's to upper 20's to near 30. That was one day before we got the start of the event. Nov 1996 That wasn't predicted at all, even that morning when the snow was falling like crazy in downtown Seattle
Dec 96 not predicted until one day before event, supposed to be in the 40's that weekend.
Feb 2001 ONE day notice if that.
What I have learned over the yrs is that when everyone is downplaying what could happen, but the LARGE model spread with arctic air just across the boarder........... BE READY!!!!
Here is my post from yesterday..............
You have a point Anthony, BUT thinking back, can you think of a arctic outbreak and snow that was predicted a week out?? Sure they would say a little cool down, snow level down to 1,000FT ect, but no where near the extent to what auctually happened.
The Nov 1985 situation was not predicted until it was on top of us, also 1990. Jan 1996 even two days before the outbreak they were calling for a little snow mainly above 500FT, forecasts were mid to upper 40's, (for that week that turned out to be very cold), then the next day the forecast dramatically changed from mid/upper 40's to upper 20's to near 30. That was one day before we got the start of the event. Nov 1996 That wasn't predicted at all, even that morning when the snow was falling like crazy in downtown Seattle
Dec 96 not predicted until one day before event, supposed to be in the 40's that weekend.
Feb 2001 ONE day notice if that.
What I have learned over the yrs is that when everyone is downplaying what could happen, but the LARGE model spread with arctic air just across the boarder........... BE READY!!!!
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