Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Okay....Link???

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[wxman22]

Yep things are getting more intresting but before we get the cold air we MAY have to deal with a isolated severe storm or two RIGHT NOW it doesnt look like any thing more than that as instibality looks to be too low.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... en_048m.gi

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054m.gif

[Tyler]

Even though the high is stronger, it weakens the high a bit faster, therefore, looks like the same temperature run. NAM is a bit colder than GFS.

[LAwxrgal]

Okay....Link???

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Gotcha, thanks! Man those temps look cold... the dip in the jetstream goes all the way to the gulf...

I think the cold gets here after the moisture moves out tho....bummer for us snowbunnies...

It's a shame this is happening in February instead of January or late December.

[PTPatrick]

looks like this could wind up being quite a blizzard from the southern appalachians all the way up to the the NE...

[Tyler]

Historic bizzard for NYC...

[PTPatrick]

are we talking about more of a 1993 type storm or a 1996 type storm

[Tyler]

are we talking about more of a 1993 type storm or a 1996 type storm

1996.

1993 was a triple-phaser.

[vbhoutex]

Guys, as sure as I am that we will see highs in the 30's to 40's and lows in the 20's over the weekend I am not as confident as you are about how cold it will get. Models are just that and they are not always right. Use something else along with the models when coming up with your forecasts, even for cold weather. Part of that is looking at the fact there is no snow cover from here almost to Canada and that we are still coming off of a very warm January. As cold as this air coming down definitely is, IT WILL MODIFY and it will MODIFY MORE THAN IT NORMALLY WOULD for this time of year. I do agree with the fact that the local OCM's and even the NWS are off with their current predictions, but I am not so sure they are 10 degrees off as has been suggested, at least with the lows.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well...the best forecast I could find tonight is 30 from Frank B. on Channel 2...but that is still 5-10F too warm. I am now really ready to see the NWS forecast tomorrow morning. I am hoping there are some changes!

[Tyler]

I hope the MOS guidance finally recognizes how cold this airmass is. Or else the NWS will continue to forecast much too warm.

[wxman22]

Speaking of severe wx Frank Begnistling on channel 2 (i know I spelled the last name rong) said that he's becoming increasiling concern for the chance of a few strong storms he showed the radar model wich did "paint" some pretty good storms over the area.

[Tyler]

I love blue northers. This front is going to be fun... There will be some insane temperature drops behind this thing..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Guys, as sure as I am that we will see highs in the 30's to 40's and lows in the 20's over the weekend I am not as confident as you are about how cold it will get. Models are just that and they are not always right. Use something else along with the models when coming up with your forecasts, even for cold weather. Part of that is looking at the fact there is no snow cover from here almost to Canada and that we are still coming off of a very warm January. As cold as this air coming down definitely is, IT WILL MODIFY and it will MODIFY MORE THAN IT NORMALLY WOULD for this time of year. I do agree with the fact that the local OCM's and even the NWS are off with their current predictions, but I am not so sure they are 10 degrees off as has been suggested, at least with the lows.

I do not understand what coming off a warm January has to do with it? We have had a few nights here lately below 40, and that is enough to cool soil back to normal..and other than that...there is nothing that a warm Jan. could do to warm the air. As for the snow cover...yes, that is true, there is not a lot. But, I have taken that into account already. If there was snow cover, then I would be worried about lows down to 14-19 across the area...but instead, I am worried about lows of 19-24 (for northern Houston). Also, this cold mass will be moving so quickly that the snow cover will not play much effect. Overall, with such great model agreement, I still feel that the NWS will be busting by 5-10 degrees on this system (as of today's forecast). Even if we do not see temps. below 25 in northern Houston...ANY freeze is really significant, because of the fact that we have not seen one in such a long time...but one thing is for sure...IF we get good radiational cooling and 850mb temps. are below -5C...IAH WILL NOT be above 28 degrees.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I love blue northers. This front is going to be fun... There will be some insane temperature drops behind this thing..

yeah. we will probably see a 10 degree temp. drop in the first hour, and an overall 15-25 degree drop within the first 3 hours with gusty winds. Always fun to see a nice cold front like this.

[Tyler]

Coming off of the warmest January has nothing to do with anything. What does matter is snow cover. Which is why IAH won't be seeing any teens, instead lower to mid 20s. If we did have snow cover in the plains, oh man, than this would be HUGE.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Coming off of the warmest January has nothing to do with anything. What does matter is snow cover. Which is why IAH won't be seeing any teens, instead lower to mid 20s. If we did have snow cover, oh man, than this would be HUGE.

yeah, I doubt IAH will see teens (though 21-26 is likely)...but I AM worried about a 19F reading in places like Tomball (Hooks), conroe, and my backyard which has it's own little cold pocket.

[vbhoutex]

Guys, as sure as I am that we will see highs in the 30's to 40's and lows in the 20's over the weekend I am not as confident as you are about how cold it will get. Models are just that and they are not always right. Use something else along with the models when coming up with your forecasts, even for cold weather. Part of that is looking at the fact there is no snow cover from here almost to Canada and that we are still coming off of a very warm January. As cold as this air coming down definitely is, IT WILL MODIFY and it will MODIFY MORE THAN IT NORMALLY WOULD for this time of year. I do agree with the fact that the local OCM's and even the NWS are off with their current predictions, but I am not so sure they are 10 degrees off as has been suggested, at least with the lows.

I do not understand what coming off a warm January has to do with it? We have had a few nights here lately below 40, and that is enough to cool soil back to normal..and other than that...there is nothing that a warm Jan. could do to warm the air. As for the snow cover...yes, that is true, there is not a lot. But, I have taken that into account already. If there was snow cover, then I would be worried about lows down to 14-19 across the area...but instead, I am worried about lows of 19-24 (for northern Houston). Also, this cold mass will be moving so quickly that the snow cover will not play much effect. Overall, with such great model agreement, I still feel that the NWS will be busting by 5-10 degrees on this system (as of today's forecast). Even if we do not see temps. below 25 in northern Houston...ANY freeze is really significant, because of the fact that we have not seen one in such a long time...but one thing is for sure...IF we get good radiational cooling and 850mb temps. are below -5C...IAH WILL NOT be above 28 degrees.

I agree about IAH, at least at this point. 25 degrees there would not surprise me. I don't believe the soils temps in this area are back to normal for this time of year and it is due to the January temps. That goes for further north of here too. A few nights in the high 30's and low 40's will not cool the soil that much. I have seen it over and over here over the last 37 years I have lived here. When there is snow cover it does get into the low 20's over almost all the area with a blue norther like this coming in. When there isn't much snow cover the temps do modify quickly and usually more than we would think they would. I am still watching and waiting as are you. I may even change my mind if the models continue to trend colder and more west, but for right now I am going with lows over most of the Metro area in the high 20's with 32 along the coast. Highs in the northern zones from IAH North could get into the mid 20's in most areas. Any wind will severely affect that too. Right now it does appear we will have calm winds which does indeed make for almost perfect radiational cooling.

[Tyler]

GFS MOS guidance SLOWLY COMING AROUND!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/Guidance/G ... KIAH.1.txt

Saturday's highs have been lowered, from 56 to 53, low sunday morning lowered from 32 to 29. Monday cooler as well. MOS still too warm, BUT, it did this last December. A couple of days before the event, every run would scale back temps by about 3 degrees.

I am now VERY confident on my mid 20's call for IAH (24).

ALSO NOTE: Any remaining precip falling saturday MORNING could be a wintry mix. Notice the 'RS'.

[vbhoutex]

Coming off of the warmest January has nothing to do with anything. What does matter is snow cover. Which is why IAH won't be seeing any teens, instead lower to mid 20s. If we did have snow cover in the plains, oh man, than this would be HUGE.

HUH???? Are you both trying to tell me that warm temps do not warm the soils? Try again. Just as cool temps cool the soils(exwx said it) a long run of above normal temps will warm them. Part of the reason we do not have the snow cover we normally would this time of year is because of the warm January temps.