Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

As Gomer Pyle used to say: surprise, surprise, surprise!"

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE RED RIVER
AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. MOST LOCATIONS WERE LOWERED 4 OR 5
DEGREES WITH THE UPDATE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

No comments about the 12z GFS?

[srainhoutx]

No comments about the 12z GFS?

Looks very active to say the least through 300 hours.

[Portastorm]

No comments about the 12z GFS?

No kidding!

I was trying NOT to post anything else this morning because I feel like I'm hogging the bandwith. You winter weather fans in Texas ... heh, heh ... you're gonna go NUTS over this 12z run. I know I am!

[mysterymachinebl]

As Gomer Pyle used to say: surprise, surprise, surprise!"

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE RED RIVER
AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. MOST LOCATIONS WERE LOWERED 4 OR 5
DEGREES WITH THE UPDATE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

Seems to be a trend lately! Two days ago we were supposed to be in the upper 40s today, but now they say 42. It is still 32 degrees, so I don't know if we will make it much above 40 or not since it's still pretty overcast here.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok I know not to put too much faith in this site, but does it hold and value in terms of the precip? I realize the temps might be colder then what they show which would mean next week could get rather interesting.

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

[southerngale]

No comments about the 12z GFS?

No kidding!

I was trying NOT to post anything else this morning because I feel like I'm hogging the bandwith. You winter weather fans in Texas ... heh, heh ... you're gonna go NUTS over this 12z run. I know I am!

Don't be absurd! Post away... I'm sure there are a lot of people waiting with bated breath for further elaboration.

[southerngale]

Ok I know not to put too much faith in this site, but does it hold and value in terms of the precip? I realize the temps might be colder then what they show which would mean next week could get rather interesting.

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

I believe it's an automated forecast based on the latest GFS run. Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

[Portastorm]

Well, in essence, the 12z GFS shows a Christmas eve to Christmas Day winter storm primarily for north Texas (Waco and northward) and then a major winter storm for most of the state of Texas the week between Christmas and New Years.

If this run were to actually occur, we'd be talking about this winter for years to come. No kidding!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Well, in essence, the 12z GFS shows a Christmas eve to Christmas Day winter storm primarily for north Texas (Waco and northward) and then a major winter storm for most of the state of Texas the week between Christmas and New Years.

If this run were to actually occur, we'd be talking about this winter for years to come. No kidding!

Except somehow it looks like it misses Austin.....

[snow and ice]

This pattern is definitely heading toward the 1978 analog. The upper air features and the timing of the cold and snow-ice are remarkably similar to that year. A little before or after the first of the year, things will pick-up in a big way. All the models are now heading in that direction. Notice the repetitive nature of the pattern in the long range Ensemble. That's the way it was in 78.

0z Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21500.html

[wxgirl69]

No comments about the 12z GFS?

No kidding!

I was trying NOT to post anything else this morning because I feel like I'm hogging the bandwith. You winter weather fans in Texas ... heh, heh ... you're gonna go NUTS over this 12z run. I know I am!

Don't tease us amateurs. Please tell!!!

[Ntxw]

Things are slowly starting to align

[HockeyTx82]

Things are slowly starting to align

For who and what time frame?

[Ntxw]

Things are slowly starting to align

For who and what time frame?

What the models show currently at least the northern half of Texas could get wintry weather at some point next week to new years

[wxman22]

The scenario the GFS shows is a classic overunning situation. Which will have to be watched for us folks in central and southeast Texas also, as these events are known to bring ice threats. If you look at the GFS surface temperatures at hours 192-240 it has highs in the mid-upper 30's and lows around freezing which are borderline threshold temperatures for an ice threat(We all know the bias the GFS has on being too warm with shallow air).Not saying its gonna happen though just saying it is something to watch as we get closer to next week....

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDWH

[TornadoAlleyMom]

Steve McCauley on WFAA tonight hinted at some possible major changes beginning this weekend. He said he may know a little more tonight at 10 after the latest model runs. It seems at least a few of the meteorologists in the area are picking up on some possible cold weather moving down towards next week.

If anybody will start talking about it, it's McCauley. He's not afraid to step out on a limb, and I like how he produces educational graphics for his forecasts and provides some explanation.

I love Steve McCauley! He's so fun and engaging in his weather reports! In fact, I had to DVR his report last night because I was so excited to hear what he had to say in conjunction with what I've been reading from you guys!

Here's my question, though: Are the models showing dry conditions in the DFW area this weekend, and then things could become interesting by next week as far as a mixture of cold and precip are concerned? (I see these maps you guys post, but I don't understand what the numbers mean, corresponding with the spaghetti noodles )

How much ice/snow, if any, are we talking about here? If that can even be determined at this time...

[Portastorm]

Well, in essence, the 12z GFS shows a Christmas eve to Christmas Day winter storm primarily for north Texas (Waco and northward) and then a major winter storm for most of the state of Texas the week between Christmas and New Years.

If this run were to actually occur, we'd be talking about this winter for years to come. No kidding!

Except somehow it looks like it misses Austin.....

Nuh-uh!!

This pattern will shatter the Omega Block over Austin. Portastorm will be kicking multiple footballs through the goalposts in his backyard before all is said and done.

[srainhoutx]

Alright, here is a brief run down of the 12Z Parallel GFS. We have our front today, and will see a Major storm form in the GOM and possibly become a Big Nor’easter this weekend. Another surge of Arctic Air will spill S into TX this weekend. Yet another surge of Aortic Air looks to arrive around the 23rd. This is followed by a very stormy pattern with colder air in place over much of TX that will last into the New Years time frame. There does appear to be another Major storm that will happen just after Christmas. Now I am not going to get into specifics, but the trends are that many folks will have a chance of seeing some wintry weather from Christmas through New Years in TX. We shall see and remember that things will likely change via guidance and Longer Range forecast have a very high bust potential. Should be an interesting ride to say the least.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Well, in essence, the 12z GFS shows a Christmas eve to Christmas Day winter storm primarily for north Texas (Waco and northward) and then a major winter storm for most of the state of Texas the week between Christmas and New Years.

If this run were to actually occur, we'd be talking about this winter for years to come. No kidding!

Except somehow it looks like it misses Austin.....

Nuh-uh!!

This pattern will shatter the Omega Block over Austin. Portastorm will be kicking multiple footballs through the goalposts in his backyard before all is said and done.

Well, ironic there is a lot of blocking in the weather pattern happening for this possible setup