Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a solid 4/5 days below freezing for portions of NTX and OK on the 12z GFS.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looks like a solid 4/5 days below freezing for portions of NTX and OK on the 12z GFS.

My guess is that 96 plus hour freeze will extend into central Texas and east by the time we get within 5 days

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I don’t think people understand what a 1070 Arctic High is… it shatters records and the models are probably way too warm at the surface given it’s strength

[Iceresistance]

I don’t think people understand what a 1070 Arctic High is… it shatters records and the models are probably way too warm at the surface given it’s strength

A 1070+ mb Arctic HP is very rare and seldom seen, I can see why most don't understand it.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado on the Ground near Archer City, TX

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The GFS is only showing us what CAN happen, we have to keep taking anything more than 5 days with a grain of salt.
Continue to watch the ensembles. They are whats best to watch.

Example, this monster cyclone over the plains, downstream, i think it will instigate blocking near W Greenland/Baffin Bay region. The GFS does not. It progresses everything east and it shears the ULL.
If a block forms in this region, the weather will be drastically different.

[gboudx]

Looks like a solid 4/5 days below freezing for portions of NTX and OK on the 12z GFS.

Starting what date?

[Brent]

The GFS is only showing us what CAN happen, we have to keep taking anything more than 5 days with a grain of salt.
Continue to watch the ensembles. They are whats best to watch.

Example, this monster cyclone over the plains, downstream, i think it will instigate blocking near W Greenland/Baffin Bay region. The GFS does not. It progresses everything east and it shears the ULL.
If a block forms in this region, the weather will be drastically different.

Yeah I don't think anything has changed. It's clear there's going to be extreme cold and probably a couple storms somewhere. Beyond that it's impossible to pin down right now

First window is this weekend and then the big storm is mid to late next week

You will drive yourself crazy watching the op runs swing

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The GFS is only showing us what CAN happen, we have to keep taking anything more than 5 days with a grain of salt.
Continue to watch the ensembles. They are whats best to watch.

Example, this monster cyclone over the plains, downstream, i think it will instigate blocking near W Greenland/Baffin Bay region. The GFS does not. It progresses everything east and it shears the ULL.
If a block forms in this region, the weather will be drastically different.

Yep, Jack Frost dagger right at us

[rwfromkansas]

Grapevine Mills Mall closed due to damage.

[orangeblood]

I don’t think people understand what a 1070 Arctic High is… it shatters records and the models are probably way too warm at the surface given it’s strength

Yep, the modeled HP magnitude and surface temps will almost always never match this far out. Fresh snow cover and winter solstice has the making of a big temp bust and with ENS Mean temps already forecast in the teens, this has historic potential!

[rwfromkansas]

I used to drive myself nuts looking at every run. I haven't even really looked at individual models, partly because people post the images here and I'm busy with yearbook deadline anyway. But, they will change a lot for the next few days at least, so I don't see a need to worry about them. Look at the ensembles is something I have learned here.

Our tools are so much better than 10 years ago when we were more at the mercy of each individual run. Just because the 12GFS is less cold (per posts here) than the 6Z doesn't mean it's not going to get cold.

[EnnisTx]

Watching Reed Timmer doing live chase mode while working.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRBJdhOZ_ZI

[Cerlin]

Man that tornado in Grapevine really caught me off guard. There was an EF2 about 20 miles south of me near Purcell OK this morning too—thankfully I have a weather radio but if that had shifted 20 miles north it would’ve hit a bunch of University Students who likely don’t.

[Iceresistance]

Wayne, OK Tornado rated EF-2, it unroofed some homes. I have the picture of the tornado on Radar


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Wayne-OK-Tornado.png

[CaptinCrunch]

The storm system has past NTX, now we can start looking at the coming cold. But as stated already nothing is set in stone, and let's just focus on the 72-96 hr forecast.

Models are fun to look at but they are more of the possibility and not a certain past the 72-96 hr window.

Cheers

[wxman57]

Out of curiosity, I plotted meteograms for the 12Z GFS. Note that there is currently no Arctic air in northern Canada. There is currently no 1070mb high anywhere. It's a long-range model forecast. I've seen such forecasts bust many times over the decades. Well, mostly in the last decade as models didn't go out very far before then. The 12Z GFS indicates a hard freeze for SE Texas but it's nothing close to 1983, 1989, 2021. No precip in the cold air. Things will likely change over the coming week. Could be less cold. I won't have a lot of confidence in the forecast for another 3-5 days.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Out of curiosity, I plotted meteograms for the 12Z GFS. Note that there is currently no Arctic air in northern Canada. There is currently no 1070mb high anywhere. It's a long-range model forecast. I've seen such forecasts bust many times over the decades. Well, mostly in the last decade as models didn't go out very far before then. The 12Z GFS indicates a hard freeze for SE Texas but it's nothing close to 1983, 1989, 2021. No precip in the cold air. Things will likely change over the coming week. Could be less cold. I won't have a lot of confidence in the forecast for another 3-5 days.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZDec13.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSX12ZDec13.JPG

Keep holding onto hope. All the major ensembles disagree.

It’s going to be cold. Accept it

How cold is to be seen.

[wxman57]

Out of curiosity, I plotted meteograms for the 12Z GFS. Note that there is currently no Arctic air in northern Canada. There is currently no 1070mb high anywhere. It's a long-range model forecast. I've seen such forecasts bust many times over the decades. Well, mostly in the last decade as models didn't go out very far before then. The 12Z GFS indicates a hard freeze for SE Texas but it's nothing close to 1983, 1989, 2021. No precip in the cold air. Things will likely change over the coming week. Could be less cold. I won't have a lot of confidence in the forecast for another 3-5 days.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZDec13.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSX12ZDec13.JPG

Keep holding onto hope. All the major ensembles disagree.

It’s going to be cold. Accept it

How cold is to be seen.

I may have to head up north and personally supervise the reinforcing of my wall. Beautiful December day outside now. Sunny and 79 degrees. Couldn't ask for much better Christmas weather...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Out of curiosity, I plotted meteograms for the 12Z GFS. Note that there is currently no Arctic air in northern Canada. There is currently no 1070mb high anywhere. It's a long-range model forecast. I've seen such forecasts bust many times over the decades. Well, mostly in the last decade as models didn't go out very far before then. The 12Z GFS indicates a hard freeze for SE Texas but it's nothing close to 1983, 1989, 2021. No precip in the cold air. Things will likely change over the coming week. Could be less cold. I won't have a lot of confidence in the forecast for another 3-5 days.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZDec13.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSX12ZDec13.JPG

Keep holding onto hope. All the major ensembles disagree.

It’s going to be cold. Accept it

How cold is to be seen.

I may have to head up north and personally supervise the reinforcing of my wall. Beautiful December day outside now. Sunny and 79 degrees. Couldn't ask for much better Christmas weather...

I’ll send you a care package of brick and mortar but the mortar will have tiny TNT STICKS in them. Mwah! Safe travels.