Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

CPC hazards has updated, not the main page yet in the browsers but looks like classic trending towards a cold outbreak with moderate risk in the northern and central plains and the rest of the west-central US at a risk. Perhaps the darker blues and purples will show up soon.

Not if, when and how much.

By next week it gets colder, then a little colder...then?

[ElectricStorm]

Chance at some snow here tonight, but won't be enough to get any accumulation. Could see some more in a few days though

[Stratton23]

NTWX you know when the CPC puts out those hazardous temp maps, its about to get real! This is going to get interesting

[Itryatgolf]

NTWX you know when the CPC puts out those hazardous temp maps, its about to get real! This is going to get interesting

I just pray and hope we get a few opportunities at snow and ice here moving forward!!

[Ntxw]

NTWX you know when the CPC puts out those hazardous temp maps, its about to get real! This is going to get interesting

Not sure on the main page but you can see what it will update to be.

[Ntxw]

I know we've been talking extensively about the upcoming pattern change just so everyone is on the same page, it's a 2-3 week period of January below normal. It's around and after the 15th if the motherload cold comes down is the frame.

[bubba hotep]

Individual op run maps are fun and all but are pretty much worthless. I like the 5-day anomaly maps of the ensembles and there has been a pretty intriguing 24-hr change on the GEFS.

You can see higher heights over Greenland and lower heights over the Baja. These types of trends are more important than run to run changes on the ops. Also, some minor changes in the orientation of the Carabbien ridge.

12z Yesterday

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024010312/gfs-ens_z500aNormMean_namer_10.png

12z Today

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024010412/gfs-ens_z500aNormMean_namer_9.png

Not sure if I'd say worthless...in certain instances, it can be a decent indicator of the potential for a pattern to go to the extremes. With the almost 4 std deviation ULL forecast to move thru the southern plains within the 5 day time frame, the downstream implications for a storm of that magnitude to crash into the Greenland Block and pump that ridge also to the extreme doesn't seem too far fetched. And once you pump a Greenland ridge of that magnitude, chaos could ensue. Anomalous storms are starting to show up within the short range guidance, this isn't 384 hr fantasy land anymore.

I can agree with that, but you still have to question the ops when run-to-run swings are high, and agreement across models is low. In the end, forecasting extreme events at any lead time is tricky b/c even the ensembles aren't great due to smoothing.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx they did update it , go to 8-14 day hazardous outlooks on the main page, select temp and it will show an update map of the moderate and slight risks that were issued

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS takes a nudge south closer to the Candaina, but still not as slow or as far south.

[HockeyTx82]

Ntwx they did update it , go to 8-14 day hazardous outlooks on the main page, select temp and it will show an update map of the moderate and slight risks that were issued

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php

[Ntxw]

18z GFS takes a nudge south closer to the Candaina, but still not as slow or as far south.

850s are cold enough, surface is 30s to low 40s...oh so close! Storm comes ashore Saturday.

[wxman57]

That's some chilly air in the northern Rockies at day 10 of the 12Z Euro. I'll be heading up to the Red River to reinforce my wall this weekend, though. It should hold and keep it out of SE TX.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro shows me at -29F.

[Ntxw]

Kind of wild how there's little cold up there now, but in a few days the air how quickly it will be pushed from Siberia through the Arctic and into Canada. That HP system in the Beaufort Sea region is a piece to cause.

[orangeblood]

18z GFS takes a nudge south closer to the Candaina, but still not as slow or as far south.

Also showing signs of trending towards Euro consolidation of PV into northern Rockies day 8-10

[HockeyTx82]

So we are about 7-10 days out. What confidence do you all have in this upcoming event being the following. For NTX and or whatever region you want to account for.

1. Typical January
2. Impressive cold and snow
3. Historical and long duration cold and snow
4. Wxman57 wall holds and summer starts mid January

[Ntxw]

So we are about 7-10 days out. What confidence do you all have in this upcoming event being the following. For NTX and or whatever region you want to account for.

1. Typical January
2. Impressive cold and snow
3. Historical and long duration cold and snow
4. Wxman57 wall holds and summer starts mid January

#2 right now and to add the private jet is likely getting ready. He may want to reinforce that wall along the Red River but just barbed wire available .

[Ntxw]

Orangeblood mentioned but lets admire the huge HPs over Greenland and Beaufort Seas. In particular after the storm next week pumps them up.

[txtwister78]

I know folks in Oklahoma and N TX are watching the evolution of the system for early next week, but I really think that's going to end up being the appetizer for what the following weekend may bring. Once you get true arctic air into the pattern pushing south and you can see all this energy behind it already in the models...I mean look out southern plains is all I can say should that come to fruition.

Of course, still a lot to sort out but you have to like the potential that's in play and it's going to be fun to watch provided that we don't get into another 2021 scenario which I'm hesitant to even mention for obvious reason, but the meteorological part of this is going to be fun to track nonetheless.

I expect this space to be alive and well next week.

[Portastorm]

A 1076 mb high?! Oh my word ...