Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Tireman4]

No clue..

[iorange55]

New GFS sure does look chilly and rainy 10 days out or so.

Low to mid 40s with rain.

[somethingfunny]

New GFS sure does look chilly and rainy 10 days out or so.

Low to mid 40s with rain.

Even if that ends up moderating by 10-15 degrees (which it should do), mid-upper 50s with rain would be a SHOCK!

[Tireman4]

New GFS sure does look chilly and rainy 10 days out or so.

Low to mid 40s with rain.

Even if that ends up moderating by 10-15 degrees (which it should do), mid-upper 50s with rain would be a SHOCK!

I will take some of that. After the WORST SUMMER EVER, I am ready for frigid!!!!

[amawea]

Help! I found some artifacts in my closet and I don't know what they are! Can y'all help me identify these objects?

I fixed it for ya.

[Rgv20]

I might finally get a chance to turn off the AC for a couple of days!

NWS Brownsville

THE HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
BREEZE BRINGING THE COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN QUITE SOME
TIME. RAW GFS DATA STILL ON TARGET ADVERTISING 70S EVERYWHERE BUT
GIVEN DRY GROUND AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GFS
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...AND ROLL UPPER 70S JIM HOGG/BROOKS TO AROUND 80 IN
THE LOWER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS SET THE STAGE FOR
THE FIRST 40S OF THE YOUNG AUTUMN ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND UPPER
VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A SPLENDID CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY
LATER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

[Turtle]

Wow, a strong cold front is coming through next week. GFS is forecasting lows in the mid-30s for me!

[somethingfunny]

SO, it looks like we're going to get our first truly legit cold front on Tuesday, October 18. My low Thursday morning is forecasted to be 39!

Given the hottest week is coming up (probably for the summer) with highs pushing 110 for north Texas, anyone want to take a guess on the first date of the first big fall front? I'm going to say October 3rd.

I'll jump in with October 15th.

I think we will see our first "bona fide" cold ( cool) front September 24. Cannot go wrong with climo....

I'm predicting a Christmas high temperature of 104.

I'll say October 13th for north to central Texas.

Our first "taste" September 22nd


The first real cool down October 13th. Just in time for my camping trip.

Larry Cosgrove thinks we may see something break the first week of September.


My thinking is, based on the pulsation we see developing into the Midwest and Great Lakes, that we get a meaningful cool intrusion around September 5.

http://www.facebook.com/#!/ryoum

I hope he is right.

The vodka-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center believe the first serious cold front hits Texas on or around September 26th.

For me, the 1st serious cold front will be the one that pushes highs down to 95. I hope that happens before September 26th.

Who guessed August 11th for the first real cold front of Autumn?

Ahem! (Portastorm clears his throat) ... A rain-cooled outflow boundary does NOT qualify as a "real cold front."

Ah and by the way iorange, I hope your camping trip is going well! Couldn't ask for better weather.

[vbhoutex]

Did we ever define legit cold front? After this summer I figure anything below 90 is cold!! We've had lows in the mid 50's, but really legit cold fronts I guess have to make it into the 40's.

[somethingfunny]

Whatever a legit cold front is, I think this defines it:



Although the weather out ahead of the front is mighty chilly by 2011 standards too!

[ROCK]

I need mild Dec and Jan if you guys can help with that....

Big DT Dallas project that needs no wind and no rain....you guys will probably see the building during the World Series. Its the big building with the hole in it. I just turned it blue recently....so when you see it you can say hey I know that guy who turned that building blue....

[gboudx]

Nice work ROCK!

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2011/09/28/chas ... s-skyline/

[Turtle]

The 18 GFS is showing .1" of snow north of I-20 at 204 hours. Perhaps our first wintry precip?

[Rgv20]

Hopefully the ECMWF pans out because this kind of pattern is usually a wet one and indeed it shows some decent rain for much of Texas from 10/27 thru 10/28.

12zECMWF forecast valid for 192hrs (Thursday 10/27) its forecasting a cut off low in Arizona eventually moving ENE.






And if the Euro is correct it should bring some cold air with it with the graphic below showing 850mb temperatures in the Panhandle and West Texas running up to 14C below normal!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Good luck and Tireman I expect to see a video of you out jogging in it!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv57PEk0vkQ&feature=related[/youtube]

Hope y'all have built up your antifreeze!

vbhoutex I know will be glued his heater!

You folks might even have er temps than my location!!!

and we haven't had yet

Looking forward to seeing what conditions/temps are like there in the coming days!

[Sambucol]

What kind of temps are forecast with this front next week in the Houston area? Thanks.

[Ntxw]

I am hoping for the Euro solution for next week. Though I am afraid it's usual southwest energy cutoff bias may be in play and the GFS progressive nature as well. Several days of drenching rains for Texas from the euro is exactly we what ordered!

[TexasStorm]

With the AO turning positive by the first of November I think we are headed (at least for the first part of November) for the warmest November in a long time.

[gboudx]

NOAA's Winter Outlook:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111020_winteroutlook.html

U.S. dealt another La Niña winter but ‘wild card’ could trump it
Devastating drought in Southern Plains likely to continue

October 20, 2011

The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, ...
...
For the second winter in a row, La Niña will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The ‘wild card’ is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter.
...
With La Niña in place Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and parts of surrounding states are unlikely to get enough rain to alleviate the ongoing drought. Texas, the epicenter of the drought, experienced its driest 12-month period on record from October 2010 through September 2011.
...
Highlights of the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) include:

* Southern Plains and Gulf Coast States: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these regions;

[iorange55]

Seems like almost every winter it's predicted to be warm and dry.

I am hopeful we'll have another decent winter. The streak can't end now!