Snow for Texas

[aggiecutter]

The long range Ensembles continue to stick a deep through in the central and eastern U.S. in the long range. They have been remarkably consistent in doing this over the past 5 days.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 20512.html

Also, the 12Z run of the GFS looks pretty promising for folks in NE Texas.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml

[jeff]

Potential Winter Storm event for N TX Wednesday into Thursday.



Cold Canadian air mass is in place over N TX with temps in the 40’s under full sun and gusty north winds. Changes are on the way!!!!



Massive 1060mb arctic high over Siberia will break off and drop SSW into NW Canada and then come roaring southward as a 1045mb high into the central plains. Very cold arctic air mass will be dislodged and funneled southward starting this evening. Arctic boundary will slice through N TX on Wednesday morning with temps falling to freezing or below during the day time hours. Winds out of the north of 15-25mph and gusty will drive wind chills well into the teens.



Precip. Concerns:



Latest guidance suggest a wetter period Wednesday into Wednesday night. 540 dm thickness is south of DFW with freezing or sub-freezing surface temps. Midnight guidance was not very aggressive with precip. chances or amounts, but the 600am guidance is quite aggressive with precipitation. Given the GFS and NAM profiles and cross sections, it appears P-type will be sleet and snow. Profiles for Dallas are frozen from the surface to 5000 ft. Main concern right now is moisture availability. Due to the fact that the latest guidance has greatly increased the moisture over the region is of some concern, but not reason to get too excited just yet as forecast models tend to flip-flop from one run to an other.



For now will play the conservative card with a 20-30% chance of light snow mixed with sleet Wednesday changing to all snow Wednesday night. Accumulations should be very light although a few places may see a dusting to a half an inch.



Persons across N TX should be prepared for hazardous driving conditions to possibly develop during the day Wednesday and last into Thursday. An extended period of sub-freezing temps. is expected with lows Thursday morning into the lower to mid 20’s. Tender vegetation will not survive such temps. and should be protected if possible.

[ETXHAMXYL]

WOW the NWS has us at 50% frozen precip for wed and wed nite. Temps really have taken a tumble from the 40's to the lower 30's from this morning's forecast until this afternoon. It seems like it is looking like more of an icy possiblity with each forecast they put out for the NTX area. Even the temps on Thurs and Fri. have been sliced down much from where they were.
Can't wait until the next run or the 6 oclock news reports. If this continues wow watch out ol' JB is going to get a feather in his cap on this one.

[Portastorm]

The Austin/San Antonio NWS office just issued its afternoon discussion and has ruled out frozen precip chances for our area.

Given this news and their track record in previous events, I am now officially worried that we're going to get smacked by an ice storm!

[CaptinCrunch]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

For all of North Texas!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I think is weird, is that the NWS is forecasting some areas to have 27-32 as an overnight low and only say "rain", they don't say frz. rain, sleet or snow. If it is below 32, then it has to be at least Frz. Rain! Also, I noticed that the 12Z GFS run brings snow flurries all the way to Houston on Thursday morning (according to the GFS graphics off of Accuweather.com professional). Is this a possibility? Or is ice the biggest threat here in NW Houston?[img][/img]

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The Austin/San Antonio NWS office just issued its afternoon discussion and has ruled out frozen precip chances for our area.

Given this news and their track record in previous events, I am now officially worried that we're going to get smacked by an ice storm!

As you rightfully should.........

[gboudx]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

For all of North Texas!!!

I just know that it won't start until I'm at work, then I'll have a 2+ hour commute home. Grrrrr.....

[CaptinCrunch]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

For all of North Texas!!!

I just know that it won't start until I'm at work, then I'll have a 2+ hour commute home. Grrrrr.....

Will be getting cold for sure, time to stock up on wood!!!

Wednesday: A chance of freezing rain, mixing with snow after noon. Cloudy and cold, with a high around 29. North northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 23. North northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 32. North northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 18. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 40. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph.

[aggiecutter]

FXUS64 KSHV 060344
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
944 PM CST MON DEC 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
FALL RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOWS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 DEGREES
STILL LOOK GOOD CITIES...BUT SOME OUT-LYING AREAS MAY GET A LITTLE
COLDER. NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. 14

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM CST MON DEC 5 2005
A LOT TO LOOK AT FOR THE THE MID WEEK WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO. DEEP
INVERTED UPPER TROF MOVING SE INTO EASTERN CO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ETA...OTHERWISE RUNNING IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. BACKED OFF ON TIMING A LITTLE...DID NOT BEGIN PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EASTERN SECTIONS IN AFTERNOON. HAVE A
VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES...WITH A DECENT NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. NORTHERN SECTIONS PRIMARLY SNOW...SOUTHERN
SECTIONS PRIMARLY RAIN...QUITE EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
NEITHER MODEL HINTING AT FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW MAY MEAN A GOOD WEDGE OF COLDER SURFACE
BASED AIR. SO DO EXPECT A GOOD STRIP OF SLEET TO OCCUR IN THE MIXED
PRECIP ZONE. IN ADDITION...LOW DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT SLEET
DURING ONSET OF PRECIP. GROUND FAIRLY WARM...SO A LITTLE SLEET MAY
NOT PRESENT A BIG PROBLEM. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT THAT MAY YIELD SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL VEERING...AS SURFACE NE WINDS BECOME RATHER STRONG FROM
THE SW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DECENT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AMOUNTS TO NEAR 4 INCHES...BUT MAY NOT EVEN BE TAKING
THE LIFTING POTENTIAL FULLY INTO ACCOUNT. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WX SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIT PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF TROF CLOSES OFF
MORE...MAY NEED TO ADJUST FOR LONGER DURATION IN LATER FORECASTS.

[texasweatherwatcher]

I am glad to see a chance of winter precipitation. I hate the travel problems and frostbite, but I like winter precipitation. We didn't have enough last winter anyway.

[AggieSpirit]

This statement

"SNOWFALL...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL VEERING...AS SURFACE NE WINDS BECOME RATHER STRONG FROM
THE SW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DECENT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AMOUNTS TO NEAR 4 INCHES...BUT MAY NOT EVEN BE TAKING
THE LIFTING POTENTIAL FULLY INTO ACCOUNT. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WX SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIT PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF TROF CLOSES OFF
MORE...MAY NEED TO ADJUST FOR LONGER DURATION IN LATER FORECASTS."

Does that mean that if the convection is stronger, as you are indicating is possible, amounts of greater than 4 inches are possible with this event?

Of course the very discussion of this means that nothing will happen, per the norm with forecasting snow in North Texas.

I am supposed to go to the Stars game in Dallas on Wed night. Is this a potential travel problem?

Also, the ground is warm.....or was it? The last 2 nights have been pretty cold. 28-32. Ground is losing heat pretty quick. And there is virtually no moisture in the ground either -- drought.

[Brent]

I am supposed to go to the Stars game in Dallas on Wed night. Is this a potential travel problem?

Also, the ground is warm.....or was it? The last 2 nights have been pretty cold. 28-32. Ground is losing heat pretty quick. And there is virtually no moisture in the ground either -- drought.

If there's 3-4 inches of snow, then it'll almost certainly be a travel problem. If it's only an inch or two, possibly, but probably not a big problem.

The ground is warm... Dallas was in the 80's on Sunday, so it's certainly not cool or cold. It takes awhile for the ground to get cold...

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Haha, I love snow...so I'm not expecting it, call it reverse crow psychology.

It always snows once a winter in Dallas. Could we be filling our quota this early? If so, I won't have anything to look forward to until the leaves come back...

[Kelarie]

Some of the local forecasters in Austin are changing their tune. Sleet and Freezing rain starting tomorrow... hmmm....

Stay tune.

[Portastorm]

The Austin/San Antonio NWS office just issued its afternoon discussion and has ruled out frozen precip chances for our area.

Given this news and their track record in previous events, I am now officially worried that we're going to get smacked by an ice storm!

As you rightfully should.........

Well, well, well ... lo and behold. I wake up Tuesday morning and we now have mixed precipitation in our forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday morning here in Austin. Following this trend ... watch ... a winter storm watch will get posted this afternoon!

[Kelarie]

How about this, close enough???

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-061800-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN ARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
548 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...

A COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL COLLIDE WITH A MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT AND MOISTURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COLD RAINY DAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY.

THIS PATTERN OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AS THE FALLING TEMPERATURES REACH THE FREEZING MARK OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE BUT COULD FALL AS A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW.

ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD PLAN AHEAD IN CASE THE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE.

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL AREAS BY NOON THURSDAY.

A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTERWARDS...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

[jeff]

Cold arctic blast heading for TX with good potential for ice and snow across portions of the state.



Winter Storm Watch issued for all of N TX including Dallas and Waco.



Additional advisories and watches will likely be extended southward and westward over the next 12 hours.



Arctic cold front with bitter cold air moving through OK this morning with surface temps in the -1’s and 1’s across the plains. Upper level short wave over CO will move southward allowing the arctic front to surge southward tonight and Wednesday. Front should reach our northern counties around daybreak and move off the coast during the early afternoon. Quite cold air will filter into the region behind the front with temps. falling into the 30’s during the late afternoon hours Wednesday.



Precip. & P-type:

Model cross sections and forecast thickness values suggest an icing event with sleet and snow mix across a large part of central and north Texas. CO short wave will induce surface low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico late tonight. Low will ride up the coast with good isentrophic lift over the surface cold air dome. Clouds will increase rapidly this evening with rain starting early Wednesday and continuing into early Thursday. It will be quite gloomy Wednesday and Thursday as rainfall and cold air advection result in a wet and cold day.



P-type:

Rain shield will be forced into a dense cold air mass with warm moist southerly flow overriding the cold air at the surface. This is a classic setup for freezing rain and icing, however the models show enough cold air depth to begin the change over to sleet and snow. Critical period is Wednesday night and Thursday morning mainly across our northern counties. Freezing rain should begin early Wednesday from Dallas to Waco and slide slowly southward along the freezing line during the day. Glazing of trees and power lines is likely from NE of Austin to Dallas during the day Wednesday and road conditions will become increasingly hazardous as ice begins to accumulate on bridges and overpasses. Freezing line should approach our northern counties by late afternoon and the rain may begin to freeze on contact by early evening north of a line from College Station to Huntsville. Sleet/snow line will progress southward as the cold air deepens extending from just north of Austin to EC TX by early evening.



Current feeling is that precip. should be ending just before the air is cold enough to support freezing or frozen precip. Exception will be across our northern 2 tier counties where a period of freezing rain and sleet may occur late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. As with any winter precip. event timing is the key and this will be fine tuned this afternoon and early Wednesday.



Accumulations:

Ice accumulations of ¼ to ½ of an inch are likely from NE of Austin to EC TX with glazing of trees and power lines. Bridges and overpasses will become increasingly ice covered by early afternoon Wednesday and travel to central and north TX will become difficult. Accumulations of sleet and snow will range from 1-3 inches across N TX roughly from Waco to Dallas into N LA. Northern counties of SE TX may see minor ice accumulations from freezing rain early Thursday morning with some glazing of bridges and overpasses possible. Given the expect accumulation amounts the Winter Storm Watch has been issued for N TX and a freezing rain or winter weather advisory will likely be needed for central TX and some of our northern counties Wednesday.



Extended:

Skies will be slow to clear Thursday with highs only around 40. If skies clear by Thursday evening a hard killing freeze will be in store for much of the area. Morning lows Friday could fall into the low to mid 20’s north of I-10 and into the upper 20’s along the coast.

[txprog]

Haha, I love snow...so I'm not expecting it, call it reverse crow psychology.

It always snows once a winter in Dallas. Could we be filling our quota this early? If so, I won't have anything to look forward to until the leaves come back...

My concern exactly. With so many predictions of a warm winter for us will this be our one shot, similar to the late January one in the simply awful La Nina winter of 99-2000? I hope not. JB has been discussing the theory that a -NAO might trump a -PDO. He says that if the PDO were to head towards neutral or positive, we may get some locked in cold down here. Interesting stuff. We shall see.....

[jeff]

Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of N TX from midnight tonight through midnight Wednesday.



Residents across N TX should prepare for an extended period of sub-freezing temperatures and freezing/frozen precipitation.



Discussion:



Very cold arctic air mass spilling into OK currently with temps. falling into the single digits over N OK. Short wave over eastern CO will drop southward in the NW flow aloft allowing the arctic boundary to slice through N TX tonight. Highs will be around midnight with temps. falling below freezing around daybreak Wednesday and into the 20’s during the day. Gusty north winds of 15-25mph with drive wind chills into the teens across the entire area.



Precip and P-type:



CO short wave will induce surface low pressure formation over the NW Gulf of Mexico which will transport warm moist air over the top of the very cold surface air. Model time cross sections show a shallow freezing level early Wednesday that deepens during the day. Rainfall should start late tonight across the NW counties and Red River counties and then change to freezing rain by early Wednesday morning and spread SE into the major metro areas by mid morning. Icing and glazing of bridges and overpasses should begin shortly after the rain begins to fall and driving conditions will quickly become hazardous. As the cold air deepens during the day, the freezing rain will begin to mix and then change over to sleet and snow. I am a little concerned with some of the models forecast convective snow bands across N TX Wednesday afternoon as this could result in periods of heavy snow and sleet.



Accumulation:

Ice accumulation of ½ of an inch will be possible by midday Wednesday with an additional 1-2 inches of sleet and snow Wednesday afternoon and night. Should meso scale bands develop with heavy precipitation rates, totals could be higher in localized areas.



Expect travel conditions across N TX will rapidly deteriorate during the day Wednesday and become extremely hazardous Wednesday afternoon. Residents should remain alert to the winter weather threat and be prepared to take the needed actions to protect themselves.



As with any winter precip. event, timing is very important along with change over lines with respect to accumulations. Much of this should be hammered out late this afternoon and early Wednesday and an update will be sent at that time unless something dramatic happens before then.