Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

1076 mb high in the beauford sea on that gfs run, that is absolutely insane

[Itryatgolf]

A met from little rock ar said today he believes the pattern that look to be shaping up resembles feb 2021 and dec 2022. I feel that's very premature to say that, but he is entitled to his opinion because those were very anomalous events and rare for a reason. Just a pattern that supports winter events in our area and enough cold air would be nice

[Iceresistance]

1076 mb high in the beauford sea on that gfs run, that is absolutely insane

There is a 1091 in Greenland


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjyLW.png

[Ntxw]

A met from little rock ar said today he believes the pattern that look to be shaping up resembles feb 2021 and dec 2022. I feel that's very premature to say that, but he is entitled to his opinion because those were very anomalous events and rare for a reason. Just a pattern that supports winter events in our area and enough cold air would be nice

Same patterns don't always give the same results, too many variables.

However you can look at multi-year trends. The cold loading pattern since 2020 has been the same. It starts with a ridge north of Alaska. We got that, that's what is seeding the cold over to our side of the hemisphere. Same thing happened in 2021, 2022. After that, we look for a mechanism to deliver the cold, and again it's the -AO/-NAO couplet that displaces the air and blocks it. Earlier in the winter we were blocking mild Pacific air.

This ridging north of Alaska has taught me a few things, -EPO like 2013-2014 is a good long duration below normal with some bouts of cold. But for us never produced the severe, really cold outcomes. The Arctic/Beaufort blocking+Greenland blocking tends to produce the more severe arctic displacement outbreaks. All do require some essence of -EPO to load the cold.

[txtwister78]

A met from little rock ar said today he believes the pattern that look to be shaping up resembles feb 2021 and dec 2022. I feel that's very premature to say that, but he is entitled to his opinion because those were very anomalous events and rare for a reason. Just a pattern that supports winter events in our area and enough cold air would be nice

Well speaking for myself of course, but if you look at analogs and you see signals of those particular patterns showing up via the modeling, you can then begin to hone in on the similarities. The modeling then becomes your resource for verification. The professional Mets on here can speak better on that than I can obviously, but pattern recognition becomes an important tool for folks who do this for a living I would imagine and so who knows tomorrow but point I'm making is at the very least he's probably seeing some of what we're seeing in the source region and thus the comment?

[Harp.1]

I can’t tell you why, but that GFS run seemed weird to me.

[Quixotic]

Too cold IMO. Suppression becomes an issue.

[Brent]

A met from little rock ar said today he believes the pattern that look to be shaping up resembles feb 2021 and dec 2022. I feel that's very premature to say that, but he is entitled to his opinion because those were very anomalous events and rare for a reason. Just a pattern that supports winter events in our area and enough cold air would be nice

What the met said up here sounds very similar too

I'd be very concerned about suppression if it's that cold though

[Gotwood]

I can’t tell you why, but that GFS run seemed weird to me.

GFS struggled really bad last year with the cold air bleeding into Texas. It always wants to push it east too quickly, if this is truly Siberian air pushing down the Rockies it isn’t stopping.

[Cpv17]

I know folks in Oklahoma and N TX are watching the evolution of the system for early next week, but I really think that's going to end up being the appetizer for what the following weekend may bring. Once you get true arctic air into the pattern pushing south and you can see all this energy behind it already in the models...I mean look out southern plains is all I can say should that come to fruition.

Of course, still a lot to sort out but you have to like the potential that's in play and it's going to be fun to watch provided that we don't get into another 2021 scenario which I'm hesitant to even mention for obvious reason, but the meteorological part of this is going to be fun to track nonetheless.

I expect this space to be alive and well next week.

I’ve noticed the precipitation outlooks issued by the CPC have a ton of above average chances across the lower 48 but it has most of Texas in a dry slot over the next couple weeks..I find that look to be really odd considering we’re in a Niño. It’s like there’s a ridge over Texas or something. Idk?

[txtwister78]

I know folks in Oklahoma and N TX are watching the evolution of the system for early next week, but I really think that's going to end up being the appetizer for what the following weekend may bring. Once you get true arctic air into the pattern pushing south and you can see all this energy behind it already in the models...I mean look out southern plains is all I can say should that come to fruition.

Of course, still a lot to sort out but you have to like the potential that's in play and it's going to be fun to watch provided that we don't get into another 2021 scenario which I'm hesitant to even mention for obvious reason, but the meteorological part of this is going to be fun to track nonetheless.

I expect this space to be alive and well next week.

I’ve noticed the precipitation outlooks issued by the CPC have a ton of above average chances across the lower 48 but it has most of Texas in a dry slot over the next couple weeks..I find that look to be really odd considering we’re in a Niño. It’s like there’s a ridge over Texas or something. Idk?

I would caution against using that for long term confidence. Those outlooks tend to fluctuate just as modeling solutions begin to coalesce the closer you get to the target period. Also note it's my understanding those outlooks represent a "probability" and aren't necessarily a forecast for the time period given which is why they're often adjusted as more data is factored into future outlooks just as we're probably going to see with the temp outlook as we get closer to next weekend.

I would also say however that not every El Nino behaves the same and thus doesn't always equate to above average precipitation for a given area/particular timeframe. That too will fluctuate.

[BrokenGlass]

That's some chilly air in the northern Rockies at day 10 of the 12Z Euro. I'll be heading up to the Red River to reinforce my wall this weekend, though. It should hold and keep it out of SE TX.

Tonight I am building a wall along the Trinity at I45 to block traffic for wayward 713 Mets.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[AubreyStorm]

So, I read 6 pages ……

“Texas, we have a problem”

[Haris]

Rest assured I am still alive, just been lurking these past few months LOL. Excited for whats to come. I am really rooting for a January 2021 storm, with wet, slushy snow all over the state.

[Cpv17]

It looks like the PV is going to split. Europe might even get a bigger cold snap than us. One piece goes over them and the other over us. At least that’s the way I see it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It's still crazy cold in Siberia, despite some air spilling towards us. Perhaps in the long run, we could get even more Siberian air moving our way.

[Stratton23]

Holy moly that 00z ICON is beyond ridiculous, look at those temps….

[Cpv17]

Holy moly that 00z ICON is beyond ridiculous, look at those temps….

Love it!!

[HockeyTx82]

Holy moly that 00z ICON is beyond ridiculous, look at those temps….

Love it!!

What temps for where and when?

How much faith do we put into that model?

[Stratton23]

The ICON generally has done better at handling or seeing arctic airmasses better than the GFS and Euro, and it has values of -40 to as low as -57 in central canada, front plowing through the texas panhandle at hour 180