Pacific Northwest Weather

R-Dub · #1201 Postby **R-Dub** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:08 am

Thanks for the explainations guys, I knew the GFS had terrain problems with the Pac northwest, but I didn't know the extent, and I didn't know how the other models handled it. Cool stuff 8-)

R-Dub · #1202 Postby **R-Dub** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:09 am

Could someone please give me the link to the MM5?

R-Dub · #1203 Postby **R-Dub** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:12 am

Snipit from latest NWS discussion..........

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 830 PM PST TUE FEB 1 2005

GFS IS STILL BEING FLAKY FOR LATE THIS WEEK...TRYING TO DECIDE WHETHER THE NORTHERN BRANCH OR SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL WIN OUT. LATEST WINNER IS THE NORTHERN BRANCH WHICH DRIVES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL SIT TIGHT FOR NOW AND AWAIT ANOTHER RECOUNT...ERRR MODEL RUN. KAM

R-Dub · #1204 Postby **R-Dub** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:17 am

Looking at the radar it appears that I might get grazed by rain tonight, hope it stays dry one more day though, I just need one more day to finish getting everything mowed at the golf course. Then it could rain all it wants. Wish it would get below freezing to slow this grass down :grr:

TT-SEA · #1205 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:20 am

R-Dub... I linked you to the ETA-based MM5 on the last page in one of my posts.

andycottle · #1206 Postby **andycottle** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:44 am

Anthony...here`s the MM5 links you are asking about. -- Andy

GFS MM5:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html

MM5 from UW:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/

TT-SEA · #1207 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 1:06 am

Anthony... reading some of your posts... I must comment that you are extremely weather knowledgable for someone so young. Are you going to pursue a career in weather??

I have loved weather since I was 3 years old. I used to give detailed forecasts to my first grade teacher that she relied on more than the media!!

But the internet did not exist until I was in my 20's so I always operated on intuition and creating my own forecast from local newscasts.

Your knowledge is WAY ahead of me when I was in high school. In fact you are probably ahead of me now. I always thought I would be happier with a career in weather... but unless you are on T.V. there is very little money in it. Sometimes I wish I went down that road though. I think about weather all day long... I might as well get paid for it!!

andycottle · #1208 Postby **andycottle** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 1:27 am

Hey Tim. I`m just 1yr ahead of ya in terms of weather. My interest in weather started age 4. And supposedly I predicted rain 30min before it happened. That was like when I was 3 or 4yrs of age. -- Andy

TT-SEA · #1209 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 1:35 am

Andy... I believe this fascination with weather is hard-wired in certain people from birth.

You know... even though I did not go into weather as a career I should at least be outside in it like R-Dub. I would love to work at a golf course. Watching the weather all day long. Always needing to know precisely what will happen to make decisions.

No... instead I am a software consultant working inside office buildings. On the plus side... I do set my own schedule and drive around the Puget Sound region all the time so I am out in the elements daily and if something exciting is happening I can "adjust" my schedule to be at home watching the action!!

TT-SEA · #1210 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 1:41 am

Interesting to note... the ECMWF shows another system for next Tuesday. That is a change.

We will see what the 06Z run of the GFS has to say about this.

snow_wizzard · #1211 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 1:45 am

Well folks...the 0z now shows the cold hanging on a bit longer than the previous runs. At face values it shows at least a few days of well below normal temps, beginning by Saturday or so. I like the trend. This will be enough to stop the grass from growing.

In Feb 1962 we had 3 weeks of downright balmy weather, only to be followed by a very cold and snowy period. That is just one example. An early taste of spring is meaningless.

snow_wizzard · #1212 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 1:52 am

Since TT only posts the boring maps, I will post the good ones!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_102m.htm

Notice the ridge in the east which will bring them the mamby pamby weather for a while! If that ridge becomes entrenched we stay cold....
The national guys have hinted that nothing is set in stone right now.

TT-SEA · #1213 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:04 am

Stop the grass from growing??? Why?? I love seeing the grass growing so nicely. Very pretty outside!!

I think we would have to be below freezing for a few days to stop the grass from growing.

That is not too likely.

Once we start the process it would take a real serious cold spell to derail spring. Looking at the long range models... it looks pretty tame.

This weekend though will be interesting. Finally some low snow levels. I would like rain in the lowlands and temps well above freezing and heavy snow in the mountains and temps around 30 degrees.

That looks like what will be happening!!

andycottle · #1214 Postby **andycottle** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:18 am

Yeah think there must be something inside us Tim. Heck..! I get excited when a T-Storm is near by! And if possible, I will be out in that T-storm tring to get what pics I can....including that hard to get 'lightning pics'. Though when the lightning is to close, I head inside and continue tring to get pics. Or If I can`t, I simply watch the storm with LOTS of amazing excitment in me. Oh how fun they are to watch!

Tim and all. Let me know if your able to view these links. They are of lightning pics I took while in Bellbrook, OH. earlier last summer. -- Andy

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004/detail?.dir=b0a4&.dnm=316f.jpg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004/detail?.dir=b0a4&.dnm=7647.jpg&.src=ph

snow_wizzard · #1215 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:22 am

You are going to be wrong on this one. 850mb temps of -10C or lower with light offshore flow, and some Fraser River outflow. That spells cold in my book. The GFS actually shows this air mass could be colder than what brought the cold spell last month. On that the 850mb temps were only about -8. I don't know how you can want uneventful weather when you are such a weather enthusiast. It makes no sense to me. You said it yourself...you want nothning exciting to happen this weekend.

You are going to hate it when the cold climate phase returns.

snow_wizzard · #1216 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:27 am

The January temperature averages for Covington were....high 47.6...low 34.6...mean....41.1. Yet another above normal January. Are you guys aware that we have not had a January below the 1945 - 1975 normal since 1993! Pathetic! The year we finally get a cold January, is the year we break out of this ridiculous warm period we have been in.

snow_wizzard · #1217 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:31 am

Speaking of lightning...we do get it here. These amazing pix are from last summer. For those that have not seen them...enjoy!

http://www.komotv.com/news/story_m.asp?ID=31784

snow_wizzard · #1218 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:37 am

Hey guys. Look at this forecast for Abbotsford! Environment Canada is not afraid to predict cold weather. Even in Seattle this should be cold enough to stop spring dead in its tracks!

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/71108.html

andycottle · #1219 Postby **andycottle** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 3:07 am

Thoes are some awsome pics, snow wizzard. Thanks! Here`s pic of some lightning from June 18th of last year here in Woodinville. Well actually it`s a video-Still-pic, but none the less, pretty cool. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004/detail?.dir=/d5d2&.dnm=8cf4.jpg&.src=ph -- Andy

snow_wizzard · #1220 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Feb 02, 2005 3:27 am

That was a great storm! So many good pictures.

Pacific Northwest Weather

Who is online