Texas Winter 2019-2020

[starsfan65]

Meanwhile, looking past the severe weather, the GFS is trending in the wrong direction....

wrong way?

[TexasF6]

TORNADO WARNING BURNET COUNTY

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Meanwhile, looking past the severe weather, the GFS is trending in the wrong direction....

Not really, stop paying attention to the Operational and look at the ensembles, MJO and EPO. It’s all trending to a cold end of January and start to February

[harp]

Meanwhile, looking past the severe weather, the GFS is trending in the wrong direction....

Not really, stop paying attention to the Operational and look at the ensembles, MJO and EPO. It’s all trending to a cold end of January and start to February

Ok, lol! I guess I'll feel better if it starts showing up in the operational runs.

[bubba hotep]

Latest HRRR

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Meanwhile, looking past the severe weather, the GFS is trending in the wrong direction....

Not really, stop paying attention to the Operational and look at the ensembles, MJO and EPO. It’s all trending to a cold end of January and start to February

Ok, lol! I guess I'll feel better if it starts showing up in the operational runs.

Operational are worthless outside of 96 hours...

[gboudx]

Captain Crunch is under the gun with a tornado warning heading in the direction of Kennedale.

[Ntxw]

Latest HRRR

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr-conus/dallas/total_snow_10to1/1578693600/1578758400-jPT03jHrWR8.png

Perhaps further south jog of the 500mb relative vorticity?

Bet a lot of eyes will by on radar out in west Texas

[EnnisTx]

Captain Crunch is under the gun with a tornado warning heading in the direction of Kennedale.

Yep, watching it as it heads toward us. We're just South of 20 and east of 287.

[gboudx]

Captain Crunch is under the gun with a tornado warning heading in the direction of Kennedale.

Yep, watching it as it heads toward us. We're just South of 20 and east of 287.

Ugh. We dealt with this in Rockwall back in October. An EF-1 passed about 2 miles south of us and a funnel was reported about 0.5 miles N of us. Be safe.

[EnnisTx]

Captain Crunch is under the gun with a tornado warning heading in the direction of Kennedale.

Yep, watching it as it heads toward us. We're just South of 20 and east of 287.

Ugh. We dealt with this in Rockwall back in October. An EF-1 passed about 2 miles south of us and a funnel was reported about 0.5 miles N of us. Be safe.

Sirens blaring, about to head to shelter.
Just went completely still. No wind....

[gboudx]

Yep, watching it as it heads toward us. We're just South of 20 and east of 287.

Ugh. We dealt with this in Rockwall back in October. An EF-1 passed about 2 miles south of us and a funnel was reported about 0.5 miles N of us. Be safe.

Sirens blaring, about to head to shelter.

Delkus is showing the rotation right in y'all's area. Check in when it’s safe.

[Ntxw]

It's been cycling around. Definitely some strong straight line winds at the very least.

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1215787928028205056

[gboudx]

Poor Brent. DFW current delay is 105 mins. Full ground stop.

[TheProfessor]

This is why we can't call busts or breathe sighs of relief until the storms actually pass through the area. Things electrified very quickly on the QLCS.

[Cerlin]

Stay safe guys. Reports of a possibly tornado headed towards DFW but I’m not sure about it’s legitimacy—enough to warrant a warning.

[Cpv17]

Harp, if I’m not mistaken, the GFS has 51 ensemble members. Think of the operational as just one of those members. This makes up the GEFS. Basically it takes into account every single ensemble member and averages them all out. That’s why paying attention to the ensembles is much more important than just paying attention to one single operational run. If you already knew this, sorry, if not, then hey, now you know!

[harp]

Harp, if I’m not mistaken, the GFS has 51 ensemble members. Think of the operational as just one of those members. This makes up the GEFS. Basically it takes into account every single ensemble member and averages them all out. That’s why paying attention to the ensembles is much more important than just paying attention to one single operational run. If you already knew this, sorry, if not, then hey, now you know!

Does Tropical Tidbits give access to the ensembles?

[gboudx]

Stay safe guys. Reports of a possibly tornado headed towards DFW but I’m not sure about it’s legitimacy—enough to warrant a warning.

Debris and funnel clouds have been spotted and confirmed with motion in the direction of DFW airport. It’s legit.

[Cpv17]

Harp, if I’m not mistaken, the GFS has 51 ensemble members. Think of the operational as just one of those members. This makes up the GEFS. Basically it takes into account every single ensemble member and averages them all out. That’s why paying attention to the ensembles is much more important than just paying attention to one single operational run. If you already knew this, sorry, if not, then hey, now you know!

Does Tropical Tidbits give access to the ensembles?

Only the averages. As far as I know, you can’t look at each member on there.