Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

The MJO is now expected to move into Phase 8 before Retrograding back to Phase 7

[Ntxw]

Its a good time to notice what has caused the change in the pattern. MJO obviously had a major roll, but seeing how thing change in the pacific first, then change in NA always fascinates me.

It's really great to watch it happen. One of the most interesting aspects is the background influence. As you know ENSO is a big driver in all things (El Nino/La Nina) and the ultimate goal is that it self destructs. The bad La Nina standing wave as it is, just continues to build warmer and warmer water in the WPAC (because the Nina suppresses convection there to cool it off) and eventually it will break out due to the hot waters. That in turn kicks off the MJO's eastward movement with all that 'hot water' that's built up. Slowly with it goes the warm water eastward to kick off an El Nino. So you suffer through bad patterns that work to get a good pattern. If the MJO progresses in time we get an 'El Nino' like tropical forcing in a La Nina with a good subtropical jet. Whether we get it in time by winter's end who knows, still fascinating.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gfs looks good for some winter weather in dfw. Temps are borderline, but the main precip swath goes right over the metro

[Iceresistance]

12z gfs looks good for some winter weather in dfw. Temps are borderline, but the main precip swath goes right over the metro

I wished that the first big system was further south . . .

[Ntxw]

The trends for the system is actually getting better and better. You're getting separation from the leading wave and more neutral/slightly negative tilt PVa. We went from essentially nothing to almost a ripe set up for a snow event. It's interesting that the GFS first showed this set up a few days ago and since then with the lagging SOI crash and better h5 supports it.

Not to mention the trough for this is sitting up near Alaska right now.

[Iceresistance]

The trends for the system is actually getting better and better. You're getting separation from the leading wave and more neutral/slightly negative tilt. We went from essentially nothing to almost a ripe set up for a snow event. It's interesting that the GFS first showed this set up a few days ago and since then with the lagging SOI crash and better h5 supports it.

Not to mention the trough for this is sitting up near Alaska right now.

That trough is expected to ride the coast before going inland over California & coming here.

12z GFS has a 1062 MB High near Alaska over NW Canada next week.

[Ntxw]

The trends for the system is actually getting better and better. You're getting separation from the leading wave and more neutral/slightly negative tilt. We went from essentially nothing to almost a ripe set up for a snow event. It's interesting that the GFS first showed this set up a few days ago and since then with the lagging SOI crash and better h5 supports it.

Not to mention the trough for this is sitting up near Alaska right now.

That trough is expected to ride the coast before going inland over California & coming here.

12z GFS has a 1062 MB High near Alaska over NW Canada next week.

Not to jinx it but hey in January 1985 (remember those mjo posts?) DFW had a snow event beginning of the month before any of the big cold waves at the end of the month. . Almost to the exact dates..

[Iceresistance]

The 3rd Storm system is taking it's time getting here on the 12z GFS . . .

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has a closed mid-level low moving over the DFW area Saturday night/Sunday morning, which is why it has 2-3" of snow. I think that you're more likely to see either no snow or some flurries up there. The extreme solution of the GFS probably will not verify.

[Iceresistance]

Mean Snowfall is .5 to 1 inch for DFW on the 12z GEFS

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS has a closed mid-level low moving over the DFW area Saturday night/Sunday morning, which is why it has 2-3" of snow. I think that you're more likely to see either no snow or some flurries up there. The extreme solution of the GFS probably will not verify.

Care to explain your reasoning? Upper level pattern looks primed for an upper low to barrel across the southern US, Ensembles are also in agreement. Plenty of cold air to tap into….This doesn’t look like an extreme solution at all when Ops and ENS are trending in that direction

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS has a closed mid-level low moving over the DFW area Saturday night/Sunday morning, which is why it has 2-3" of snow. I think that you're more likely to see either no snow or some flurries up there. The extreme solution of the GFS probably will not verify.

Care to explain your reasoning? Upper level pattern looks primed for an upper low to barrel across the southern US, Ensembles are also in agreement. Plenty of cold air to tap into….This doesn’t look like an extreme solution at all when Ops and ENS are trending in that direction

I agree it's a diamond in the rough set up that's sneaky out of a bad prior pattern. But you have to like that the trend is up from nothing. At best the expectation was hardly a freeze? I'd say we're going in the right direction for the weekend.

[NDG]

GEFS still not sold on an over all major pattern change in the long range after quick appetizer shot of cold air for the south central & SE US late weekend into early next week.

[Cpv17]

GEFS still not sold on an over all major pattern change in the long range after quick appetizer shot of cold air for the south central & SE US late weekend into early next week.

https://i.imgur.com/8CpCuJq.gif

Yeah that ridge just doesn’t wanna seem to go away.

[orangeblood]

GEFS still not sold on an over all major pattern change in the long range after quick appetizer shot of cold air for the south central & SE US late weekend into early next week.

https://i.imgur.com/8CpCuJq.gif

Yeah that ridge just doesn’t wanna seem to go away.

Need to MJO to continue propagating over into 8-1-2 to push the ridge east…until then, the SE stays pretty warm

[NDG]

GEFS still not sold on an over all major pattern change in the long range after quick appetizer shot of cold air for the south central & SE US late weekend into early next week.

https://i.imgur.com/8CpCuJq.gif

Yeah that ridge just doesn’t wanna seem to go away.

Need to MJO to continue propagating over into 8-1-2 to push the ridge east…until then, the SE stays pretty warm

GFS ensembles continue to persistent in the PNA to stay negative giving room for the ridge to stay in place over all.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has a closed mid-level low moving over the DFW area Saturday night/Sunday morning, which is why it has 2-3" of snow. I think that you're more likely to see either no snow or some flurries up there. The extreme solution of the GFS probably will not verify.

Care to explain your reasoning? Upper level pattern looks primed for an upper low to barrel across the southern US, Ensembles are also in agreement. Plenty of cold air to tap into….This doesn’t look like an extreme solution at all when Ops and ENS are trending in that direction

Primary reason is the recent bad GFS performance with such systems. I'll believe it more when it has support from the EC & Canadian. I just do not trust the GFS.

[Iceresistance]

12z Canadian has trended Warmer & Drier compared to 0z

[cheezyWXguy]

12z Canadian has trended Warmer & Drier compared to 0z

But it does looks pretty similar at 500mb to the 12z gfs. The main difference being the trough is a little weaker and more positively tilted. It’s plenty cold enough at the time of passage with temps in the lower 20s, but is too dry for precip

[Ntxw]

We'll have a better idea by Weds or Thurs when the pieces are on/near the West Coast. Right now we're mainly watching for 500mb improvement which I never thought would happen. It's coming out of nowhere.

Major SOI crash just before Christmas by logic told us a southwest system was going to be in play a couple of weeks down the pipe but just didn't want to believe it given how negative the pattern has been. It's good timing with a cold shot.