Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Gotwood]

OOz CMC increases the snow for north Texas next week.

[txtwister78]

GFS dumps the arctic into the plains next weekend and once again you see the model error though as it can't handle that amount of cold coming down into Texas. There is no way if you dump that amount of arctic air into the plains it's going to "stop" or get held up like the GFS shows. That's coming south like nobody's business folks and so look for a correction not only with the timing of the cold further south but also the storm track of any system that rides along the boundary. That too would be further south in my opinion.

[Sambucol]

Holy moly that 00z ICON is beyond ridiculous, look at those temps….

What kind of temps and how far south?

[Gotwood]

Holy moly that 00z ICON is beyond ridiculous, look at those temps….

What kind of temps and how far south?

Run ends on the 12th with the front just barreling through Amarillo as it shows 14 degrees. -57 degrees in southern Canada. I will add the coldest air looks to be further east than the Euro was.

[Brent]

Possibly 3 chances for snow here in the next 10 days when we've had none the entire winter so far

[Stratton23]

00z Euro still brings a lobe of the PV down into the western us lol

[gpsnowman]

Getting a nice steady shower here. Nice to listen to while everyone else is asleep. I've been staying up way too late on my staycation this week.

[Ralph's Weather]

Snowflakes this morning are as close as Broken Bow.

[Brent]

Precip moving out too fast here I really hope Tuesday is better than this. Still not much to report up here for the winter

[Harp.1]

Anything new in the overnights?

[wxman57]

The pattern still just doesn't look right, to me, for any significant winter weather event across Texas next week. Overnight models are backing off on the cold. Nothing extreme in the Northern Plains, even in the Canadian run. Temps of -10F to -20F across Montana and North Dakota are not unusual in winter. The Canadian is the only model that predicts a light freeze as far south as Houston. It also has snow for the D-FW area with Monday's system, but I think it's too cold. My private jet pilot remains on vacation next week.

You folks know I hate cold, right? However, if I ever REALLY do see a major event coming then I'm not going to deny it. I was shouting about the 2021 event over a week in advance. I went to Home Depot for insulation and 9 days before the cold hit. Similar in 2022. For next week, I'm just not seeing it. Fast zonal flow is not good for bringing significant cold south.

Just in case, I'll be heading up to the Red River wall to make sure it's ready for any cold air that tries to make it into Texas.

[Harp.1]

I’ve been noticing that and even commented on it a few days ago. The flow seems zonal from west to east and not more north to south.

[jaguars_22]

Overnight runs and this morning looks like Wxman is right again!!!! I agree with him, when he says worry you worry… this flipped fairly quickly NO COLD FOR YOU

[orangeblood]

The pattern still just doesn't look right, to me, for any significant winter weather event across Texas next week. Overnight models are backing off on the cold. Nothing extreme in the Northern Plains, even in the Canadian run. Temps of -10F to -20F across Montana and North Dakota are not unusual in winter. The Canadian is the only model that predicts a light freeze as far south as Houston. It also has snow for the D-FW area with Monday's system, but I think it's too cold. My private jet pilot remains on vacation next week.

You folks know I hate cold, right? However, if I ever REALLY do see a major event coming then I'm not going to deny it. I was shouting about the 2021 event over a week in advance. I went to Home Depot for insulation and 9 days before the cold hit. Similar in 2022. For next week, I'm just not seeing it. Fast zonal flow is not good for bringing significant cold south.

Just in case, I'll be heading up to the Red River wall to make sure it's ready for any cold air that tries to make it into Texas.

If this map doesn’t scream “unusual” than we must live on different planets…the entire western 1/2 of the US is 40 to 50 F below normal. And to think it’s just going to disappear like some of these models are showing doesn’t align at all with historical analogs

[snownado]

The pattern still just doesn't look right, to me, for any significant winter weather event across Texas next week. Overnight models are backing off on the cold. Nothing extreme in the Northern Plains, even in the Canadian run. Temps of -10F to -20F across Montana and North Dakota are not unusual in winter. The Canadian is the only model that predicts a light freeze as far south as Houston. It also has snow for the D-FW area with Monday's system, but I think it's too cold. My private jet pilot remains on vacation next week.

You folks know I hate cold, right? However, if I ever REALLY do see a major event coming then I'm not going to deny it. I was shouting about the 2021 event over a week in advance. I went to Home Depot for insulation and 9 days before the cold hit. Similar in 2022. For next week, I'm just not seeing it. Fast zonal flow is not good for bringing significant cold south.

Just in case, I'll be heading up to the Red River wall to make sure it's ready for any cold air that tries to make it into Texas.

I know your post is not a popular take, but I appreciate it.

One thing I'm noticing is that models have been trending towards less phasing with the system around the 9th-10th, which may be part of the reason why recent model runs aren't as cold.

[Cpv17]

The pattern still just doesn't look right, to me, for any significant winter weather event across Texas next week. Overnight models are backing off on the cold. Nothing extreme in the Northern Plains, even in the Canadian run. Temps of -10F to -20F across Montana and North Dakota are not unusual in winter. The Canadian is the only model that predicts a light freeze as far south as Houston. It also has snow for the D-FW area with Monday's system, but I think it's too cold. My private jet pilot remains on vacation next week.

You folks know I hate cold, right? However, if I ever REALLY do see a major event coming then I'm not going to deny it. I was shouting about the 2021 event over a week in advance. I went to Home Depot for insulation and 9 days before the cold hit. Similar in 2022. For next week, I'm just not seeing it. Fast zonal flow is not good for bringing significant cold south.

Just in case, I'll be heading up to the Red River wall to make sure it's ready for any cold air that tries to make it into Texas.

If this map doesn’t scream “unusual” than we must live on different planets…the entire western 1/2 of the US is 40 to 50 F below normal. And to think it’s just going to disappear like some of these models are showing doesn’t align at all with historical analogs

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/westzoomed/t2m_f_anom/1704412800/1705276800-qic1vu5IKa8.png

Cold is coming, for sure! It’s just a matter of how cold. Extremes are on the table.

[Cpv17]

I’m not even really worried about if cold is coming at this point. What I’m interested about is how long does it last and what does late January into February look like.

[Brent]

Okay I found a spotty very light dusting in spots here. This is sad Were gonna have to do better than this

[Stratton23]

The cold is coming, its just the typical model biacy of globals trying to push the arctic air back, not going to happen, that cold air is coming straight down all the way to the gulf coast

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im open to anymore analogs that are comparable to what all major models are showing. Currently, Dec 1990 has some similarities, but its not exact.
These are the temps associated with the 1990 event at IAH. The cold air will bleed down to some extent.