Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[hriverajr]

Well looking at the models looks like western Texas has the best shot at snow right now. Here even in Del Rio have a shot at some light snow I think. Temperatures are going to be very borderline according to the models. I don't see it happening for east Texas at the moment. Looking at the water vapor you can see that the developing upper level feature is digging farther south and west than was probably indicated. The operational GFS continues to be the driest of all the models so far. I don't like what they show early next week as things could dry out and become more representative of an El Nino Winter. Will have to see how models respond over the next few days as far as that goes. At least I may be able to ride my bike.. been too chilly here to do any road biking. I ride my bike just like Wxman 57, not quite as far though

[Portastorm]

This ought to get a few tongues wagging ...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
444 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING RAINS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY FROM W TO E TO BE OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX BY AROUND 10 AM. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH
LEAVES WAKE SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH NW WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
SUNSET.

A POLAR LOW DROPPING INTO THE SWRN US WILL BRING A RELATIVELY RARE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. INITIALLY
THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY FRIDAY MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT LOW
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONTINUOUS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
GFS RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER LOW WWD TO DELAY
THE PRECIPIATION TRENDS WHILE CONTINUING THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MORE FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE ON SOME MIXED PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SOUTH CENTRAL TX SHOULD STILL GET A GLANCING BLOW AND
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY RAIN. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION PERIOD FOR ALMOST ALL
AREAS...WITH A FEW AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY
MORNING.

PRECIP TYPES IS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ARE SIMPLIFIED
TO RAIN AND SNOW...BUT A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SATURATED MID LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY TOO WARM FOR OPTIMAL SNOWFALL RATES. THUS WITH
RAIN AND MIX PRECIP RATES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DUE TO A
WEAKENING TREND IN THE UPPER LOW...NO ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 06Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE UPPER TROUGH WESTWARD AND COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT LINGER INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF A PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHIFTING
WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE SWRN US AND THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARING OVER TX...WILL KEEP SATURDAY EVENING FREE OF WINTER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW. MODEL TRENDS ARE GROWING SUPPORT FOR THE
PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW THAT DIGS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SWRN US TO
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS N TX MONDAY...BUT KEEP IT FAIRLY WEAK WITH
A DRIER AIR REGIME IN PLACE BY THIS TIME. STILL...SOME INTEREST
MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS FEATURE WHICH COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A BRIEF MIXED PRECIP EVENT SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS REFLECT A
STRONGER SYSTEM. THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
SHOWS TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CLIMATE NORMS FOR CHRISTMAS.
THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK RESEMBLES A MORE POLAR FLOW
DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERISTIC OF A LA NINA WINTER. THIS MAY
BE A SIGNAL TOWARD A DRIER PATTERN TO UNFOLD FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECASTS.

[hriverajr]

I concur with their discussion out of San Antonio.. It may be to dry in the San Antonio Austin area and points east. and probably too warm. Dallas for sure looks too dry right now

[Portastorm]

I concur with their discussion out of San Antonio..

Thanks for chiming in and offering your insights, hriverajr! Should be an interesting period ahead if nothing else.

[hriverajr]

Yep it will and might be the last one for a while.. not really looking forward to bland weather. Well models always change so hope springs enternal

[Portastorm]

Yep it will and might be the last one for a while.. not really looking forward to bland weather. Well models always change so hope springs enternal

The teleconnection/analog story seems to suggest mild and drier after this upcoming weekend as you have pointed out. In fact, the mild stretch should take us into the first week of January from what I see. You and wxman57 will have your bike riding weather but I'm sure we'll have wailing and gnashing of teeth on this forum as well.

[Kelarie]

from Shreveport NWS....still up in the air...

WHETHER THIS MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR LIGHT PCPN INTO THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST WITH LOW POPS TO REFLECT THIS. RUN TO RUN MODELS CANNOT YET AGREE ON SUFFICENT COLD LAYER FOR ANY MIXED PCPN...SHOULD ANY PCPN OCCUR. WILL NOT INCUDE ANY MENTION OF WINTRY MIX AT THIS TIME./

[hriverajr]

Well imagine if you are on the east coast right now. The weather weenies are all ready to jump out the window. Meteorologists from Accuweather are freaking out. Let's not even talk about JB hehe.
I like active weather, always have.

[hriverajr]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
708 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-222100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
708 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A LIGHT MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TEXAS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SLEET OR SNOW WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...OR GENERALLY NORTH OF A DEL
RIO TO COMFORT TO GEORGETOWN LINE. DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO FALL AND GROUND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...NO ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.

$$

[wxman57]

Models haven't changed much since yesterday. Only the Euro predicts any snow in Texas on Saturday, and only in west Texas. Too little moisture in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area by the time the temps aloft cool down. Nothing but rain indicated in San Antonio and Austin. GFS and Canadian are much drier, indicating only a bit of light rain along the mid to upper coast. NAM is similar to the Euro, indicating a bit of light snow out near Midland but nothing east of there.

So I'd say there might be a little snow out in west TX (Midland area) on Saturday. East of there would be cold rain. Heaviest precip would be along the coast closer to the frontal wave, where temps aloft support nothing but rain.

[weatherdude1108]

This ought to get a few tongues wagging ...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
444 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING RAINS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY FROM W TO E TO BE OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX BY AROUND 10 AM. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH
LEAVES WAKE SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH NW WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
SUNSET.

A POLAR LOW DROPPING INTO THE SWRN US WILL BRING A RELATIVELY RARE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. INITIALLY
THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY FRIDAY MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT LOW
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONTINUOUS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
GFS RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER LOW WWD TO DELAY
THE PRECIPIATION TRENDS WHILE CONTINUING THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MORE FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE ON SOME MIXED PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SOUTH CENTRAL TX SHOULD STILL GET A GLANCING BLOW AND
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY RAIN. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION PERIOD FOR ALMOST ALL
AREAS...WITH A FEW AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY
MORNING.

PRECIP TYPES IS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ARE SIMPLIFIED
TO RAIN AND SNOW...BUT A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SATURATED MID LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY TOO WARM FOR OPTIMAL SNOWFALL RATES. THUS WITH
RAIN AND MIX PRECIP RATES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DUE TO A
WEAKENING TREND IN THE UPPER LOW...NO ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 06Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE UPPER TROUGH WESTWARD AND COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT LINGER INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF A PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHIFTING
WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE SWRN US AND THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARING OVER TX...WILL KEEP SATURDAY EVENING FREE OF WINTER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW. MODEL TRENDS ARE GROWING SUPPORT FOR THE
PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW THAT DIGS ALL THE WAY INTO THE SWRN US TO
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS N TX MONDAY...BUT KEEP IT FAIRLY WEAK WITH
A DRIER AIR REGIME IN PLACE BY THIS TIME. STILL...SOME INTEREST
MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS FEATURE WHICH COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A BRIEF MIXED PRECIP EVENT SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS REFLECT A
STRONGER SYSTEM. THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
SHOWS TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CLIMATE NORMS FOR CHRISTMAS.
THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK RESEMBLES A MORE POLAR FLOW
DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERISTIC OF A LA NINA WINTER. THIS MAY
BE A SIGNAL TOWARD A DRIER PATTERN TO UNFOLD FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECASTS.

I saw that. I'm not liking the last paragraph ("...DRIER PATTERN..."). I got an inch of rain at my house last night. Wish it would stay wet like this way all Winter/Spring.

[weatherdude1108]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
708 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-222100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
708 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A LIGHT MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TEXAS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SLEET OR SNOW WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...OR GENERALLY NORTH OF A DEL
RIO TO COMFORT TO GEORGETOWN LINE. DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO FALL AND GROUND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...NO ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.

$$

"When it snows, ain't it thrilling,
Though your nose gets a chilling
We'll frolic and play, the Eskimo way,
Walking in a winter wonderland."

I can keep dreaming anyway.

[Portastorm]

Models haven't changed much since yesterday. Only the Euro predicts any snow in Texas on Saturday, and only in west Texas. Too little moisture in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area by the time the temps aloft cool down. Nothing but rain indicated in San Antonio and Austin. GFS and Canadian are much drier, indicating only a bit of light rain along the mid to upper coast. NAM is similar to the Euro, indicating a bit of light snow out near Midland but nothing east of there.

So I'd say there might be a little snow out in west TX (Midland area) on Saturday. East of there would be cold rain. Heaviest precip would be along the coast closer to the frontal wave, where temps aloft support nothing but rain.

Well, I figured it was only a matter of time before Heat Miser (aka wxman57) offered his insights. Every party has a pooper!

All kidding aside, I'm apt to climb on board with your take, sir, as it'll be much easier emotionally to not get my hopes up. If it snows/sleets or whatevers in Austin, it'll be a bonus. But I certainly won't expect it. You have to admit though that NWSFO Austin/San Antonio seems a bit bullish on the event.

[wxman57]

Well, I figured it was only a matter of time before Heat Miser (aka wxman57) offered his insights. Every party has a pooper!

All kidding aside, I'm apt to climb on board with your take, sir, as it'll be much easier emotionally to not get my hopes up. If it snows/sleets or whatevers in Austin, it'll be a bonus. But I certainly won't expect it. You have to admit though that NWSFO Austin/San Antonio seems a bit bullish on the event.

I like seeing snow as much as any of you. It's the only time I like the cold. I wonder if the SAT/AUS NWS office is paying any attention to the Canadian or GFS models? Seems only the Euro is indicating the slight chance that a few of those Midland snowflakes might get within 100 miles of the SAT/AUS area. I wouldn't absolutely rule out anyone in San Antonio or Austin seeing a snowflake as the precip ends Saturday, but surface temps should be above freezing and moisture will be trailing off by then. Of course, that's only if the Euro is correct about the Gulf low/wave forming closer to the coast. GFS and Canadian have a weaker wave farther offshore and little precip inland beyond coastal counties on Saturday.

[hriverajr]

I'm gonna be more positive and say gets within 50 miles of Austin and SA. hey the nam shows plenty of precip I think..hahaha The disturbance does look pretty vigourous right now in all honesty and looking healthier by the hour.. it's gonna dig pretty deep

[orangeblood]

12 NAM looks much better for snow potential...has the ULL holding together much longer and is further south thus being able to tap into more moisture. Seemed to initialize much better than the other models so i wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet. Too early to call one way or the other...Hasn't everyone learned their lesson from past winters?

[SouthernMet]

12z NAM Better in terms of trends. . But becoming more realistic on the fact that MOST of the moisture will stay south of I-20 and most of the wintry weather will stay west of I-35. Keep watching the NAM/HRRR trends.

[iorange55]

12z NAM Better in terms of trends. . But becoming more realistic on the fact that MOST of the moisture will stay south of I-20 and most of the wintry weather will stay west of I-35. Keep watching the NAM/HRRR trends.

Actually it seems like the NAM brought more moisture north than it's previous runs. It's definitely a trend in the right direction. I am not giving up on this storm.

Yeah, it definitely shows more precip than the 06z run.

[SouthernMet]

12z NAM Better in terms of trends. . But becoming more realistic on the fact that MOST of the moisture will stay south of I-20 and most of the wintry weather will stay west of I-35. Keep watching the NAM/HRRR trends.

Actually it seems like the NAM brought more moisture north than it's previous runs. It's definitely a trend in the right direction. I am not giving up on this storm.

It did, just not alot. . I meant that the trend had more precip expand northward but still not alot north of I-20.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Very nice Omega block forming over Alaska in the long range models...