Texas Winter 2021-2022

[bubba hotep]

12z Canadian has trended Warmer & Drier compared to 0z

But it does looks pretty similar at 500mb to the 12z gfs. The main difference being the trough is a little weaker and more positively tilted. It’s plenty cold enough at the time of passage with temps in the lower 20s, but is too dry for precip

More in line with the +ENSO base state, obviously that can be overcome but I remain skeptical of the Nino looking GFS winter wx producing system.

[Iceresistance]

We'll have a better idea by Weds or Thurs when the pieces are on/near the West Coast. Right now we're mainly watching for 500mb improvement which I never thought would happen. It's coming out of nowhere.

Major SOI crash just before Christmas by logic told us a southwest system was going to be in play a couple of weeks down the pipe but just didn't want to believe it given how negative the pattern has been. It's good timing with a cold shot.

Is this one of the reasons why we never give up on the models?

And also, KFOR picked it up a few days ago as a cold but dry shot, but Yesterday showed a Winter Storm for Oklahoma (Extreme Case, unlikely to happen) on KFOR.

[NDG]

We'll have a better idea by Weds or Thurs when the pieces are on/near the West Coast. Right now we're mainly watching for 500mb improvement which I never thought would happen. It's coming out of nowhere.

Major SOI crash just before Christmas by logic told us a southwest system was going to be in play a couple of weeks down the pipe but just didn't want to believe it given how negative the pattern has been. It's good timing with a cold shot.

What do you make out of the SOI going back big time positive since then?

[Ntxw]

We'll have a better idea by Weds or Thurs when the pieces are on/near the West Coast. Right now we're mainly watching for 500mb improvement which I never thought would happen. It's coming out of nowhere.

Major SOI crash just before Christmas by logic told us a southwest system was going to be in play a couple of weeks down the pipe but just didn't want to believe it given how negative the pattern has been. It's good timing with a cold shot.

What do you make out of the SOI going back big time positive since then?

Back to programming as usual, the Nina base state still dominates. That means cold north and warm south. As long as the MJO is P7 though that's not typical Nina forcing so we may see swings in the SOI in January. It also signals sig weakening of the Nina come spring, unless it circles back to p3-5.

[NDG]

12z Canadian has trended Warmer & Drier compared to 0z

Past 3-5 days the Canadian most times is way too extreme with forecasted lows when a Canadian/Arctic mass is forecasted to come down to the south.
The Euro's raw numbers usually do a good job before the GFS's MOS numbers get within the short range.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro isn't quite the GFS but it's the best Euro run yet. Has the snow running in southern Oklahoma and 500mb is really good improvement. It's just a matter of ejection location. Like I keep repeating we're going from nothing burger to out of nowhere inside 7 days things are showing.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro Op trending towards GFS, going neutral/negative tilt as it crosses Texas…really close to a closing it off. Again, plenty of cold air to work with…just need little further south trajectory to tap into better moisture

[wxman57]

Was just comparing the 500mb charts at day 10 (240 hrs) for each of the main global models. They're not even remotely close with the pattern. The Euro & GFS are almost 180 deg out of sync with each other.

[orangeblood]

Was just comparing the 500mb charts at day 10 (240 hrs) for each of the main global models. They're not even remotely close with the pattern. The Euro & GFS are almost 180 deg out of sync with each other.

But regarding the potential winter storm this weekend, the 5-6 day looks really similar….

[gpsnowman]

I think 57 is getting some immediate maintenance and fuel on his jet so he can scurry out a moment's notice in case his wall starts to crumble. The temp in Sydney is 62 at the start of summer in the southern hemisphere. He might want to change the destination this winter. Sixty two is freezing in the world of 57.

[Ntxw]

For the long range even the GEFS and EPS are not fully in agreement in the Bering/Alaska/Aleutian region regarding the ridge. Comes to show there is a shift expected and there isn't satisfaction on what it wants to do.

[Iceresistance]

I think 57 is getting some immediate maintenance and fuel on his jet so he can scurry out a moment's notice in case his wall starts to crumble. The temp in Sydney is 62 at the start of summer in the southern hemisphere. He might want to change the destination this winter. Sixty two is freezing in the world of 57.

When he fled this Past February, he went to Darwin

[Brent]

Tulsa AFD could it happen?

Of primary concern in the extended period is the potential for a
very strong cold front to enter the area early Saturday and
plunge through the region. There is the potential for wintry
precipitation behind the front as temperatures fall or begin to
fall during the day in all but far southeast Oklahoma...falling there
Saturday night. Model consistency remain limited at the moment,
so details aren`t possible at this point. But the odds are tipping
toward much colder air coming into all of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, with two disturbances crossing the central U.S.
that could result in precipitation in eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas in the cold air.

[AustinTXResident]

The GFS, ECMWF, and ICON ensemble means continue to show no freezes for Austin through the end of their runs.

The GFS ensemble mean has barely freezing temperatures (30°) for lows in Dallas this coming weekend but no freezes thereafter. It also forecasts 0.20 inches of sleet/snow this weekend, but with air temperatures no lower than 30° and very warm soil temperatures, the impacts would be mainly on elevated roads. The GFS operational is colder but totally dry for this weekend, as is the ECMWF operational.

[Ntxw]

Well we can throw 2011-2012 out the window since it was extremely cold up there. From NWS Anchorage historic warmth up there too from the big ridge.

 https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/1475568750778671106




Broken from '82, '83, 84' winters. All of whom featured at least one major blast into the US. Perhaps wxman57 should book a future flight up there instead??

[AustinTXResident]

Well we can throw 2011-2012 out the window since it was extremely cold up there. From NWS Anchorage historic warmth up there too from the big ridge.

https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/1475568750778671106

Broken from '82, '83, 84' winters. All of whom featured at least one major blast into the US. Perhaps wxman57 should book a future flight up there instead??

So big-time warmth in Kodiak foreshadows big-time cold for Texas? Source?

[Ntxw]

Well we can throw 2011-2012 out the window since it was extremely cold up there. From NWS Anchorage historic warmth up there too from the big ridge.

https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/1475568750778671106

Broken from '82, '83, 84' winters. All of whom featured at least one major blast into the US. Perhaps wxman57 should book a future flight up there instead??

So big-time warmth in Kodiak foreshadows big-time cold for Texas? Source?

Where in my post did I say that? Seems like you made that assumption on your own. We have tongue-in cheek discussions with wxman57 about warmth in Alaska and some big blasts in the past. All that was said was the three years listed by the NWS in Anchorage, clearly you can do a reanalysis from ncep and look if you'd like plenty of resources to use.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.narr.html

Also if you need more resources plenty to pick from including psl and CIRES all great tools, pick one.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/tables/subdaily.html

[Cerlin]

I will be out of town until 6 pm on the 2nd, so I’m fully expecting wintry weather from the 1st through the morning of the 2nd and for it to be gone by the time I’m back.

[cheezyWXguy]

The GFS, ECMWF, and ICON ensemble means continue to show no freezes for Austin through the end of their runs.

The GFS ensemble mean has barely freezing temperatures (30°) for lows in Dallas this coming weekend but no freezes thereafter. It also forecasts 0.20 inches of sleet/snow this weekend, but with air temperatures no lower than 30° and very warm soil temperatures, the impacts would be mainly on elevated roads. The GFS operational is colder but totally dry for this weekend, as is the ECMWF operational.

The 12z gfs operational shows 1-3” broad rushed across NTX. Did you mean the CMC?

[Brent]

I will be out of town until 6 pm on the 2nd, so I’m fully expecting wintry weather from the 1st through the morning of the 2nd and for it to be gone by the time I’m back.

Okay now I'm convinced