Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Extremeweatherguy
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- Location: Florida
From the Norman AFD...
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...
BUT EVOLVING SCENARIO HAS POTENTIAL FOR A NUMBER OF INTERESTING
OUTCOMES. CANADIAN AIR MASS TO OUR N WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN
ANTICYCLONE NEAR OR ABOVE 1050 MB BY SUNDAY. THIS AIR WILL MOVE S
INTO THE AREA TUE AS THE WESTERN TROF LIFTS ENE... BRINGING AN END
TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. AT THE SAME TIME STEADILY-INCREASING
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE POISED JUST TO OUR S. THE COLD AIR USUALLY
WINS OUT DURING WINTER... AT LEAST FROM OK NORTH... BUT WE ARE NOW
COMING INTO THE WINTER-TO-SPRING TRANSITION WHEN THE CONFRONTATION
COULD GO EITHER WAY - OFTEN WITH A NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT RESULTS. GFS IS PUTTING ITS CHIPS ON THE ARCTIC AIR
AND SENDING THE SFC FRONT INTO THE N GULF BY LATE WED. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO DRY BUT SHARPLY COOLER/COLDER WEATHER FOR MID-LATE WEEK.
BUT ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER N OVER TX
THROUGH THURSDAY... STILL CHILLING DOWN THE ENTIRE CWA BUT AT THE
SAME TIME CRANKING OUT 1-3 INCHES OF PRECIP OVER S/E OK. THE
EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF A HUDSON-BAY VORTEX AND SPLIT
FLOW... WITH THE STRONGER N BRANCH SUPPORTING THE COLD AIR
INTRUSION... THE WEAKER-BUT-STILL-ACTIVE S BRANCH PROVIDING
LIFT... AND THE WARMER MOIST AIR POISED JUST TO OUR S... WOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANYTHING FROM A SOAKING RAIN EVENT TO LATE-SEASON
SNOW IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO. WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT MUCH
COOLER/COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE... AND WE HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A FEW
MORE NOTCHES ON WED-THU. POPS HAVE BEEN STRETCHED THROUGH
FRIDAY... HIGHEST IN THE S/SE... AND SNOW HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AS A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS W/N PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND THE WED-THU
PERIOD.
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...
BUT EVOLVING SCENARIO HAS POTENTIAL FOR A NUMBER OF INTERESTING
OUTCOMES. CANADIAN AIR MASS TO OUR N WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN
ANTICYCLONE NEAR OR ABOVE 1050 MB BY SUNDAY. THIS AIR WILL MOVE S
INTO THE AREA TUE AS THE WESTERN TROF LIFTS ENE... BRINGING AN END
TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. AT THE SAME TIME STEADILY-INCREASING
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE POISED JUST TO OUR S. THE COLD AIR USUALLY
WINS OUT DURING WINTER... AT LEAST FROM OK NORTH... BUT WE ARE NOW
COMING INTO THE WINTER-TO-SPRING TRANSITION WHEN THE CONFRONTATION
COULD GO EITHER WAY - OFTEN WITH A NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT RESULTS. GFS IS PUTTING ITS CHIPS ON THE ARCTIC AIR
AND SENDING THE SFC FRONT INTO THE N GULF BY LATE WED. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO DRY BUT SHARPLY COOLER/COLDER WEATHER FOR MID-LATE WEEK.
BUT ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER N OVER TX
THROUGH THURSDAY... STILL CHILLING DOWN THE ENTIRE CWA BUT AT THE
SAME TIME CRANKING OUT 1-3 INCHES OF PRECIP OVER S/E OK. THE
EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF A HUDSON-BAY VORTEX AND SPLIT
FLOW... WITH THE STRONGER N BRANCH SUPPORTING THE COLD AIR
INTRUSION... THE WEAKER-BUT-STILL-ACTIVE S BRANCH PROVIDING
LIFT... AND THE WARMER MOIST AIR POISED JUST TO OUR S... WOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANYTHING FROM A SOAKING RAIN EVENT TO LATE-SEASON
SNOW IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO. WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT MUCH
COOLER/COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE... AND WE HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A FEW
MORE NOTCHES ON WED-THU. POPS HAVE BEEN STRETCHED THROUGH
FRIDAY... HIGHEST IN THE S/SE... AND SNOW HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AS A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS W/N PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND THE WED-THU
PERIOD.
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srainhoutx
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
Mighty strong push of "colder air" coming from Canada and AK late next week with this late season storm. I would not be surprised to see reports of "wintry precip" from N TX through OK and northeastward. The storm system is dropping some record snows in Fairbanks, AK and into Alberta. Just an FYI. 
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srainhoutx
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
Good disco from San Angelo concerning Artic Airmass...snipet...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
316 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009
.LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PLENTIFUL TODAY AND INCLUDE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS WELL AS TEMPS...PRECIP
CHANCES AND EVEN TO A LESSER EXTENT PRECIP TYPE WITH A MODIFIED
ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
AS A NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN (WESTERN TROUGH-SOUTHEAST RIDGE) ACROSS
THE CONUS. WEST CENTRAL TX WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES OR
ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TX MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO
SPILL SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...UNDERCUTTING MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS A GOOD SETUP FOR CLOUDY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THIS AREA
AND WILL LEAD TO A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LET US NOT FORGET THAT IT
IS STILL WINTER ASTRONOMICALLY...EVEN THOUGH WE`VE SET MANY RECORD
HIGHS OF LATE. NOW LET`S DIVE INTO THE DETAILS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SIGNAL OF SOME WARM
ADVECTION IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS AS THE PACIFIC FRONT THAT
PUSHES THRU MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY STALLS OUT AND RETURNS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS. ON MONDAY...WEST CENTRAL TX
RETURNS TO THE WARM SECTOR AND A DRYLINE WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THEN STORMS COULD FIRE. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK IN A FAIRLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS IS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS BUT AT LEAST SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT.
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING PRECLUDES ME FROM GOING
HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS. ANOTHER DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND
WILL CONFINE TSTORM CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. THE GFS
SHOWS A STRONGER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER
THE BAJA AND A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLICING SOUTH ACROSS TX
TO HELP FOCUS ISENTROPIC LIFT. I HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE SLGT
CHC TO CHC CATEGORY FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE LIES WITHIN THIS PERIOD. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE
EJECTING BAJA WAVE TO PRODUCE LIFT ABOVE THE COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH MAYBE
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. I HAVE RAISED POPS INTO
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (50%) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A MUCH COLDER
DAY IS IN STORE AS TEMPS WILL EITHER BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
THRU THE DAY INTO THE 40S AND 50S. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING
OVER MY SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THIS IS WHERE I WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS. WITH CLOUDS...PRECIP...AND COLD NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
STAY IN THE 40S. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE JUST
WARM ENOUGH IN THE BIG COUNTRY TO KEEP THE PRECIP LIQUID WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
CONFIDENCE DECLINES TOWARD FRIDAY AS THE GFS TRIES TO LIFT OUT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
BELIEVE IT OR NOT FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WARMER TEMPS...AND WET CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY BUT WILL NOT
GO BEYOND THAT FOR NOW AND KEEP PRECIP LIQUID.
BOTTOM LINE...SOME MUCH COOLER...CLOUDY...AND WET CONDITIONS ARE
STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. CONDITIONS LIKE THIS HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME.
THIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
316 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009
.LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PLENTIFUL TODAY AND INCLUDE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS WELL AS TEMPS...PRECIP
CHANCES AND EVEN TO A LESSER EXTENT PRECIP TYPE WITH A MODIFIED
ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
AS A NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN (WESTERN TROUGH-SOUTHEAST RIDGE) ACROSS
THE CONUS. WEST CENTRAL TX WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES OR
ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TX MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO
SPILL SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...UNDERCUTTING MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS A GOOD SETUP FOR CLOUDY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THIS AREA
AND WILL LEAD TO A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LET US NOT FORGET THAT IT
IS STILL WINTER ASTRONOMICALLY...EVEN THOUGH WE`VE SET MANY RECORD
HIGHS OF LATE. NOW LET`S DIVE INTO THE DETAILS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SIGNAL OF SOME WARM
ADVECTION IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS AS THE PACIFIC FRONT THAT
PUSHES THRU MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY STALLS OUT AND RETURNS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS. ON MONDAY...WEST CENTRAL TX
RETURNS TO THE WARM SECTOR AND A DRYLINE WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THEN STORMS COULD FIRE. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK IN A FAIRLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS IS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS BUT AT LEAST SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT.
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING PRECLUDES ME FROM GOING
HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS. ANOTHER DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND
WILL CONFINE TSTORM CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. THE GFS
SHOWS A STRONGER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER
THE BAJA AND A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLICING SOUTH ACROSS TX
TO HELP FOCUS ISENTROPIC LIFT. I HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE SLGT
CHC TO CHC CATEGORY FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE LIES WITHIN THIS PERIOD. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE
EJECTING BAJA WAVE TO PRODUCE LIFT ABOVE THE COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH MAYBE
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. I HAVE RAISED POPS INTO
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (50%) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A MUCH COLDER
DAY IS IN STORE AS TEMPS WILL EITHER BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
THRU THE DAY INTO THE 40S AND 50S. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING
OVER MY SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THIS IS WHERE I WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS. WITH CLOUDS...PRECIP...AND COLD NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
STAY IN THE 40S. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE JUST
WARM ENOUGH IN THE BIG COUNTRY TO KEEP THE PRECIP LIQUID WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
CONFIDENCE DECLINES TOWARD FRIDAY AS THE GFS TRIES TO LIFT OUT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
BELIEVE IT OR NOT FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WARMER TEMPS...AND WET CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY BUT WILL NOT
GO BEYOND THAT FOR NOW AND KEEP PRECIP LIQUID.
BOTTOM LINE...SOME MUCH COOLER...CLOUDY...AND WET CONDITIONS ARE
STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. CONDITIONS LIKE THIS HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME.
THIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION.
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Extremeweatherguy
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- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
The 00z GFS keeps the precipitation mostly to south of Oklahoma next Wednesday/Thursday and then hits us hard with winter precipitation Friday morning. The model scenario keeps going back and forth though, with one run showing Wed/Thurs as the target days and then the next run showing Thurs/Fri. I guess it will all depend on how far south the front can manage to slide. Hopefully we will be able to nail down the timing and precipitation-type better in a couple of days..
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 00z GFS keeps the precipitation mostly to south of Oklahoma next Wednesday/Thursday and then hits us hard with winter precipitation Friday morning. The model scenario keeps going back and forth though, with one run showing Wed/Thurs as the target days and then the next run showing Thurs/Fri. I guess it will all depend on how far south the front can manage to slide. Hopefully we will be able to nail down the timing and precipitation-type better in a couple of days..
I hope some snow makes it down here to Dallas, looks to be a little too warm right now with just cold rain. But i have faith it'll change....kind of :[
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srainhoutx
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
Artic type airmass still looks poised to dive down the Plains and produce some "wintry weather" potential from N TX, OK and points NE. We will need to watch the embedded S/W's for additional moisture through the weekend. Looks like a big change from temps in the 70's and 80's to the 30's and strong blustry winds as well with this late season Artic Blast. FYI: Temps are forecast to only reach the single digits for highs in MT with lows in the -10 to -20 range. 
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Extremeweatherguy
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- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
Model skew-T still looks interesting. There is just a very small (>0C) warm sector right near 850mb, with below 0C zones just below and all the way above this sector. Would probably still be favorable for some type of winter-precipitation mixing...hopefully.Ed Mahmoud wrote:latest GFS doesn't like EWG...
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Extremeweatherguy
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- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
Ch. 4 in OKC seems confused when it comes to the late week forecast...
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
I think it's going to be a close call from the Red River to OKC.
Two reasons for such a thought.
First, this cold air mass is very strong and dense for so late in the season - forecasted highs are below zero tomorrow in NE Montana and NW North Dakota with lows down to 20 below tomorrow night. The models often struggle with cold air masses and their southward progress - this one looks strong enough to make the slide down the Plains IMO.
Second, the moisture supply appears good - QPF is decent looking in N. Texas this week - and several waves of energy aloft will be working in producing overrunning conditions.
So, I think the forecasts in OKC and the Red River Valley will go downhill in the next 48 hours.
Bottom line, whether it is snow, ice, or rain, here's hoping that it is heavy enough to knock down fire conditions, spur a good spring green-up, and begin to dent the drought conditions.
Tx Snowman
Two reasons for such a thought.
First, this cold air mass is very strong and dense for so late in the season - forecasted highs are below zero tomorrow in NE Montana and NW North Dakota with lows down to 20 below tomorrow night. The models often struggle with cold air masses and their southward progress - this one looks strong enough to make the slide down the Plains IMO.
Second, the moisture supply appears good - QPF is decent looking in N. Texas this week - and several waves of energy aloft will be working in producing overrunning conditions.
So, I think the forecasts in OKC and the Red River Valley will go downhill in the next 48 hours.
Bottom line, whether it is snow, ice, or rain, here's hoping that it is heavy enough to knock down fire conditions, spur a good spring green-up, and begin to dent the drought conditions.
Tx Snowman
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Extremeweatherguy
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- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
Based on the 00z GFS and NAM it looks like the first wave of possible light wintry precipitation for Oklahoma City will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning/afternoon...
00z NAM:
Wed. Evening
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif
Simulated radar - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_048l.gif
Surface temperature: 48F
850mb temperature: 31F
Thurs. Early Morning
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
Simulated radar - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_054l.gif
Surface temperature: 40F
850mb temperature: 32F
Thurs. Morning
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
Simulated radar - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_060l.gif
Surface temperature: 35F
850mb temperature: 33F **900mb and 950mb are both below freezing**
Thurs. Afternoon
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif
Simulated radar - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_066l.gif
Surface temperature: 33F
850mb temperature: 31F **950mb temperature is down to 27F**
00z GFS:
Wed. Evening
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif
Surface and precip. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif
Surface temperature: 46F
850mb temperature: 28F
Thurs. Early Morning
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
Surface and precip. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
Surface temperature: 40F
850mb temperature: 29F
Thurs. Morning
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
Surface and precip. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif
Surface temperature: 36F
850mb temperature: 30F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 00z GFS MOS and 00z NAM MOS values are even colder, with the NAM MOS dropping OKC down to 28F on Thursday morning and the GFS MOS dropping OKC down to 31F. Dewpoints also fall into the upper teens to low 20s on the MOS products, perfect for radiational cooling should a more substantial precipitation shield try to develop. While the chance of a major event is slim, the potential is definitely there for it to get a bit "interesting" later this week. It will be fun to watch how this all plays out...
00z NAM:
Wed. Evening
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif
Simulated radar - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_048l.gif
Surface temperature: 48F
850mb temperature: 31F
Thurs. Early Morning
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
Simulated radar - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_054l.gif
Surface temperature: 40F
850mb temperature: 32F
Thurs. Morning
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
Simulated radar - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_060l.gif
Surface temperature: 35F
850mb temperature: 33F **900mb and 950mb are both below freezing**
Thurs. Afternoon
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif
Simulated radar - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_066l.gif
Surface temperature: 33F
850mb temperature: 31F **950mb temperature is down to 27F**
00z GFS:
Wed. Evening
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif
Surface and precip. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif
Surface temperature: 46F
850mb temperature: 28F
Thurs. Early Morning
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
Surface and precip. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
Surface temperature: 40F
850mb temperature: 29F
Thurs. Morning
700mb (a.k.a. cloud cover) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
850mb temperatures - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
Surface and precip. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif
Surface temperature: 36F
850mb temperature: 30F
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The 00z GFS MOS and 00z NAM MOS values are even colder, with the NAM MOS dropping OKC down to 28F on Thursday morning and the GFS MOS dropping OKC down to 31F. Dewpoints also fall into the upper teens to low 20s on the MOS products, perfect for radiational cooling should a more substantial precipitation shield try to develop. While the chance of a major event is slim, the potential is definitely there for it to get a bit "interesting" later this week. It will be fun to watch how this all plays out...
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
so probably not any wintry precip for Dallas? That sucks but i'll take 40's and rain over 80's and sun.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
iorange55 wrote:so probably not any wintry precip for Dallas? That sucks but i'll take 40's and rain over 80's and sun.
lol then you're living in the wrong place.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
cheezyWXguy wrote:iorange55 wrote:so probably not any wintry precip for Dallas? That sucks but i'll take 40's and rain over 80's and sun.
lol then you're living in the wrong place.
Not really, DFW gets winter weather almost every year, but it is rare enough that it is special. Notice no "Minnesota Winter Weather Thread" because there is nothing exciting about snow in Minnesota.
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srainhoutx
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread
Ed Mahmoud wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:iorange55 wrote:so probably not any wintry precip for Dallas? That sucks but i'll take 40's and rain over 80's and sun.
lol then you're living in the wrong place.
Not really, DFW gets winter weather almost every year, but it is rare enough that it is special. Notice no "Minnesota Winter Weather Thread" because there is nothing exciting about snow in Minnesota.
One interesting note is that 2 meter temps via the NAM keeps IAH in the 40's for highs on Friday. The closer the event, the further temps are dropping re models.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Hmm. Even though the models started looking better for wintry precipitation last night then they ever did yesterday, the OKC NWS has decided to remove the word "snow" from the city's forecast. They are now calling for just rain..even though temperatures will be hovering around 32F. Seems a bit odd to me considering how cold the upper levels will be. I guess we will just have to wait and see what the 12z models decide to do. May be they will change the forecast back later today..
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Ed Mahmoud
Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Hmm. Even though the models started looking better for wintry precipitation last night then they ever did yesterday, the OKC NWS has decided to remove the word "snow" from the city's forecast. They are now calling for just rain..even though temperatures will be hovering around 32F. Seems a bit odd to me considering how cold the upper levels will be. I guess we will just have to wait and see what the 12z models decide to do. May be they will change the forecast back later today..
New NAM does not seem to be your friend- close, but no cigar, matching precip, thickness and 850 mb temp.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Ed Mahmoud
Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Yeah, its going to be a very close call. NAM forecasted skew-T still looks interesting though..we will just have to wait and see how everything plays out.
Don't know how 12Z models will work out (I could look at Denver ob and 12Z NAM forecast, I suppose), but Joe Bastardi notes the 6Z GFS getting spanked on temps
The 6z GFS number at Denver for a max today is 39, which is 13 degrees below normal. As of this writing, it's 11 above and temps have been falling. This could be a candidate for one of the greatest 12-hour bust on temps ever. It is supposed to be 19 right now. So let's see how this works.
12Z NAM for Denver, -8.8ºC at 12Z, actual temp then was -11ºC.
So maybe the models will be a degree or two warm, and you'll have one last blast of Winter.
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