Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[iorange55]

Even the 12z GFS looks slightly better to me. I'm thinking by tonight the models might come around even more, I have a good feeling (which I realize means nothing) but still. Just from being apart/watching past winter storms, I get the feeling this might be a little surprise storm.

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z NAM snow accumulations map. White Christmas for Midland, maybe. 12Z GFS is considerably drier, with little or no moisture across Midland (a few flurries) and nothing in the way of moisture in the Dallas area.

12Z NAM:


12Z GFS - no moisture:

[Portastorm]

If the 12z Canadian and Euro trend in this direction, I think you can stick a fork in the White Christmas dreams of most Texans.

Just sayin' ...

[orangeblood]

I'm sticking with my original forecast that this will stronger and more robust than the models are showing...except for the NAM, most of the models appear to either hand off too much energy to the northern stream or leave too much back in Mexico as time goes on. This just doesn't look plausible to me given how far north the northern stream currently sits and the negative state of the EPO. If it does stay more dynamic than currently forecast, anyone who's under that ULL could get an early Christmas present!!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[iorange55]

If the 12z Canadian and Euro trend in this direction, I think you can stick a fork in the White Christmas dreams of most Texans.

Just sayin' ...

Well, I don't think the trends this morning were that bad. The 12z NAM actually looked better, and the 12z GFS still isn't showing much, but it didn't look any worse. The 0z Euro still showed some snow...we'll see what happens with the models later on.

I still think someone is in for a surprise.

12Z Canadian is living up to it's nickname.

[ndale]

I am just surprised at the Austin nws office forecast. As Portastorm said they seem bullish on this. Usually they are very reserved and conservative about winter precipitation because they have been burned before. Surely they are taking all models into consideration. I am interested in seeing if they change their minds in later forecast updates.

[TexasF6]

I just looked at the euro on wundermaps? Snow is up the street from my house!!! I also looked at the sat pic of that polar vortex? Its still chugging south...I make no bones about it, I want the snow. Dang blasted, I want the snow!!!

(this is definitely not any sound meteorological forecasting, so do not use it for planning purposes!!!)

[iorange55]

I am going to see what all the models say tonight and look at the short range models starting tonight, and make up my mind on what I think will happen.

I just don't think the models are handling this well.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro is unchanged from it's past 3-4 runs. Snow along I-20/10 in west Texas up till the metroplex which is marginal and dependent on heavy precip for dynamic cooling. GFS and Euro are in a battle again, one will bust.

Wind is shifting to the NW along I-20/35, coldest temps are lagging behind a bit.



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Rain is changing to some light snow in northern Oklahoma, some of the models suggest light flurries along the red river tonight/tomorrow.

[orangeblood]

Other than just copying and pasting model printouts and interpreting model data, are there any Pro Mets on here or amateurs that care to share any insights into why this storm could go way one or the other ie..past experience, analogs, similar patterns, teleconnections, climatology, etc. ??? It seems like time and time again too many of us, including Pro mets on here, take the models for gospel so to speak and many times we get burned because of it. This is a wonderful discussion board and would greatly appreciate it if anyone had anymore insight into this event besides interpretations of models.

[iorange55]

Other than just copying and pasting model printouts and interpreting model data, are there any Pro Mets on here or amateurs that care to share any insights into why this storm could go way one or the other ie..past experience, analogs, similar patterns, teleconnections, climatology, etc. ??? It seems like time and time again too many of us, including Pro mets on here, take the models for gospel so to speak and many times we get burned because of it. This is a wonderful discussion board and would greatly appreciate it if anyone had anymore insight into this event besides interpretations of models.

I was also wondering about this. I don't think I have enough knowledge to really provide any new insight, but it would be nice if someone could. Maybe the Dallas/Fort Worth NWS will have an interesting discussion for us this afternoon.

[missytingarland]

Curious here too...especially since I'll be driving Friday night. Don't particularly want a repeat of 2009...

[Portastorm]

Some interesting insights here on the model runs:

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EST THU DEC 22 2011

VALID DEC 22/1200 UTC THRU DEC 26/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...


12Z/22 FINAL MDL PREFERENCES


...WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO OFF THE NEW ENG CST ON
DAY 1...
12Z/22 GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO PRVS MDL SOLUS AND TAKES THE
SYS RAPIDLY NEWD...WHILE WEAKENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE TIME IS
REACHES THE SERN NEW ENG CST. MDL BLEND AT THIS POINT IS STILL A
GOOD SOLU.


...LRG SCALE TROF PUSHING ACRS THE NRN PLNS/UPR MIDWEST/GRT LKS...
THIS FEATURE HAS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LVL SHRTWVS THAT DROP SEWD
FM CAN INTO THE REGION. THE FIRST SHRTWV TIMG/STRENGTH IS SIMILAR
IN THE 12Z/22 GUID AND WITH PRVS SOLUS.

THE SCND SHRTWV DROPS INTO THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS ON DAY 2.
12Z/22 GUID IS A LITTLE STGR. SFC REFLECTION IS ALSO A LITTLE
STGR. WL ACCEPT A LITTLE MORE DIGG INTO THE MEAN TROF PSTN. BEYOND
DAY 2...THE SYS WL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AND ACRS THE LWR GRT LKS INTO NEW ENG.

THE THIRD SHRTWV DIGG INTO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY ON DAY 3 IS
HANDLED WELL BY THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC/ECMWF. MID-LVL SOLUS ARE A
LITTLE STGR THAN PRVS RUNS...BUT SYS SHLD QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE LWR GRT LKS DUE TO THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV ENERGY..
12Z/22 GFS IS THE DEEPER SOLU AND THE PIECE OF GUID THAT WAS NOT
USED ON DAY 2 OVER THE GRT LKS. THIS SYS SHLD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
PUSHES INTO/ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS DUE TO A 4TH UPSTREAM SYS QUICKLY
DROPG SEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY/GRT LKS.

THE 4TH SHRTWV IS VERY STG IN THE 12Z/22 GFS...THE REST OF THE
GUID SOMEWHAT WEAKER. THIS SYS SHLD DIG INTO THE GRT LKS...BUT NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS DEPICTS. 12Z/22 ECMWF IS ON BOARD WITH
THE NAM/CMC/UKMET AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLU.


...TROF PUSHING SWD THRU THE GRT BASIN/ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HI
PLNS...
MDLS ARE SIMILAR WITH DROPG ENERGY THRU THE ROCKIES INTO THE SWRN
U.S....THEN ALLOWING SOME ENERGY TO SHEAR NEWD AND PHASE WITH
ENERGY DIGG INTO THE GRT LKS ON DAY 3. MDLS ARE SHOWING VARIED
SOLUS AT 5H WITH THE NAM THE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A 5H CENTER
INTO THE SRN PLNS...ECMWF SHOWING THE SAME CENTER OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE...WHILE THE CAN/UKMET/GFS SHOWS THE MAIN CLOSED LOW
REMAINING OVER NRN MEXICO. WOULD LIKE TO REMOVE THE NAM FM THE MIX
DUE TO IT BEING A STG OUTLIER...ALSO THINK THE ECMWF MIGHT BE TOO
FAR NE WITH THE CLOSED LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THESE SYS
CONT TO DEVELOP OVER SRN AZ/NRN MEX REGION THE PAST MONTH OR SO
AND THE LRG SCALE PTRN HAS NOT CHANGED. THEY THEN HAVE BEEN
TENDING TO ONLY SLOWLY LIFT NEWD INTO THE SRN PLNS. ALSO...THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/NAM 5H SOLUS DO NOT FIT THE LATEST ECMWF/GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN PTRN THRU THIS REGION.

...SHRTWV TROF PUSHING INTO THE WRN U.S....
MDLS ARE GNRLY VERY SIMILAR WITH BRINGING THIS ENERGY INTO THE WRN
U.S. ON DAY 3. SOME SLGT SPEED DIFFS. DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION
FCST BY ALL THE GUID...WOULD TEND TO LEAN ON THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER
SOLUS LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF...BUT THE DIFFS ARE RATHER SMALL.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500 MB FORECAST AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...


ECKERT

[HockeyTx82]

I don't understand what they are saying.

So overall where are we right now. What's the over-under? I am about to call my bookie..............

[Ntxw]

A water vapor look at the conus. You can see the storm continuing to drop south/sw. I am not buying the GFS' dry solution. The subtropical jet west of Mexico is quite active and will likely have some impact imo especially with the storm dropping so far south. You can see it try to stretch northeast from the bottom left.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: I don't understand what they are saying.

So overall where are we right now. What's the over-under? I am about to call my bookie..............

Sorry. I should have offered more comments. Here is what I gleaned from it:

1) Throw out the NAM solution. Too strong. Too extreme.

2) Throw out the 12z Euro. It doesn't match the bulk of what the 12z Euro ensembles showed.

3) This storm system will probably follow the same/similar path and act similar to what other developing storm systems have done this late fall/early winter season (this is what Ntxw has been saying, I believe).

4) That means it will be slower to eject out of the southern AZ/northern Mexico area.

5) GFS/Canadian/UKMET probably more apt to be closest solution.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: I don't understand what they are saying.

So overall where are we right now. What's the over-under? I am about to call my bookie..............

Sorry. I should have offered more comments. Here is what I gleaned from it:

1) Throw out the NAM solution. Too strong. Too extreme.

2) Throw out the 12z Euro. It doesn't match the bulk of what the 12z Euro ensembles showed.

3) This storm system will probably follow the same/similar path and act similar to what other developing storm systems have done this late fall/early winter season (this is what Ntxw has been saying, I believe).

4) That means it will be slower to eject out of the southern AZ/northern Mexico area.

5) GFS/Canadian/UKMET probably more apt to be closest solution.

My issue with number 3 is that I only recall one system this winter/late fall closing off and staying less progressive than the rest of them and that was last weeks system...is one system enough to call this a pattern ??? we shall see but every system that has finally ejected out this season has been a big precip maker, much more than what the GFS/UKMET is showing.

[iorange55]

18z NAM continues to trend in the right direction. Really liking this run by the NAM...


Producing a lot of moisture, slow moving and seems stronger/colder.

[Portastorm]

18z NAM continues to trend in the right direction. Really liking this run by the NAM...


Producing a lot of moisture, slow moving and seems stronger/colder.

OK ... look ... first of all, y'all should know better than anybody that I would love to see snow falling in Texas on Christmas Eve/Day, especially in my area. And yes the NAM looks better and better for that. But here's why I'm not buying what the NAM is selling ... look at the 12z and 18z runs ... check out what a strong surface low it develops close to the Texas coast. And also check out the strength of the upper-level feature in west Texas. They both can't be strong!

My understanding (and my recollection) is that when upper-level lows move west to east across the state and shear out and lose their energy ... that's when you see a surface trough or surface low form in the near Gulf. If the upper-level feature retains its strength and vorticity, you don't get much of a surface reflection. It can't be both ways! Or at least I don't think it can.

So, sorry NAM followers. I think you're going to be disappointed. And yes, I hope I am wrong. God knows it happens enough on a daily basis.

[Ntxw]

NAM/Euro camp almost identical lol. GFS and everyone else. Skew plots of 18z has -8 to -10c saturated for north texas but an 850 to surface warm nose. Elevation will help areas west and southwest. Lets hope for some strong precip for extreme dynamic cooling! Or the underestimation of cold verbatim.

^ It can portastorm if the upper low is strong enough they can both interact. The surface low feeds moisture while the 5h low generates the trowal. But this is difficult to do unless you have a decent/strong cutoff in the upper levels. And when both are stacked...well you see that in noreasters . The NAM/Euro is not as sheared hence they make the connection to an extent. As a few posts before I do not buy the GFS' dry solution because I believe it underestimates both features and do not develop enough coastal troughing and seeing the Pacific.

Edit: HRW or the hi resolution model short range.

42hr


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