Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[SunnyThoughts]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-092330-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...
YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
323 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
.WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST EAST OF SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MOISTURE OVERRIDES A
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...A MIX OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. A FEW AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS DONALDSONVILLE
AND LAPLACE MAY SEE SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THURSDAY NIGHT ROLLS AROUND...THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST.
DURING THIS TIME...A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN 4 INCHES. POINTS SOUTH OF
THIS...SUCH AS THE BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN AREA AND LOCATIONS EAST
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 12 CORRIDOR WILL BE IN MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS IN THESE AREAS AT 1 TO 3 INCHES. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING EAST OF THE AREA
AND SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION STOPS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AN 1 INCH IN THE FLORIDA PARISHES AS WELL AS
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

WITH THIS POSSIBLE EVENT STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS. IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA.

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
335 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-101000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
335 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY...

OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MUCH HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN REGARDS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...DUE TO THE
LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.

TIMING REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS...AS
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR TARGET DAY. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL DETERMINE NOT ONLY THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE THAT IS OFFERED UP WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALSO HOW FAR
THE FREEZING LINE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTH...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.

FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION REMAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW COULD SET UP ACROSS
THE STATE...DROPPING 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
PLEASE BEGIN TO PLAN AHEAD ON HOW A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD
AFFECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY...BEFORE IT ACTUALLY FALLS.

CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY FOR THIS POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER ON
FRIDAY. ON THE WEB...CHECK OUT OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
OUR MULTIMEDIA IMPACT BRIEFING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

$$

27

[SunnyThoughts]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-102300-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SOME AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION ON RIVERS IN YOUR AREA.

AS A COLD FRONT HAS SINCE PASSED...A FREEZE IS IN STORE TONIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO
THE LOWER 30S ON THE BEACHES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE DETRIMENTAL TO
OUTDOOR TENDER VEGETATION. THE LOW TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
FORECAST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS. THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S...DOES NOT APPEAR LONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A HARD FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

OVER THE MARINE AREA...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGES FOR MORE
SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON WINDS AND SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION BY WEEK`S END AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84...AND WILL THEN CHANGE TO AND REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING FROM THE WEST. CLOSER TO THE COAST...RAIN
WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT AND A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW
MIX COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID MORNING FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

IT IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE TO PIN-POINT EXACT
SNOWFALL TOTALS BECAUSE IT IS TOO FAR OUT IN TIME PRIOR TO THE EVENT
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE CONFIDENCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA CONTINUES TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
INLAND.

IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY EITHER AN ADVISORY OR A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WARNING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY
UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND OUTLOOKS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING LATER
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTS THAT LINGERING MOISTURE ON ROADS AND OVERPASSES WILL
REFREEZE...CREATING SLICK SPOTS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
100015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...
ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...
VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...
MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...
STARKVILLE...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...
LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...
BROOKSVILLE...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...
YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...
PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG...
JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

...WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT A LARGE
PART OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME...SPREADING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN
COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD THE LOW TRACK FARTHER NORTH
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THIS WEATHER EVENT IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY...AND SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT MOST OF THE AREA COULD RECEIVE ACCUMULATING
SNOW...WITH SOME PARTS OF THE AREA POSSIBLY RECEIVING HEAVY SNOW OF
SEVERAL INCHES. THE AREA MOST VULNERABLE TO HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
CHANGE BASED ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...AND
FORECASTS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. RESIDENTS AND PEOPLE PLANNING
TRAVEL IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.

$$

08

[Dk2Dead.Rising]

I'm not convinced yet that temperatures will be cold enough to support such wintry precipitation as far south as some of the offices are forecasting. We'll see though.

[RNGR]

18z GFS continues the madness.

[Stormcenter]

What madness are you referring to?

18z GFS continues the madness.

[Ivanhater]

This is strictly 3 hour snowfall accumulation

[mitchelliii]

What is causing this to be so far off. Its nuts really!

[RNGR]

What madness are you referring to?

18z GFS continues the madness.

driving the gulf low into south FL..

[RNGR]

This is strictly 3 hour snowfall accumulation

thats impressive. they must think the low will track further north than all the guidance.. pushing decent accumulations that far north..

[timNms]

From NWS Jackson, MS 5:48 PM 2/9/10 for JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...
MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...
PURVIS...HATTIESBURG

THURSDAY NIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET IN THE
EARLY EVENING...THEN SNOW FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING
THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY...COLDER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.

[Brent]

Hmmmmm

[RNGR]

looking better!

[Brent]

looking better!

That looks great for us! Come on GFS, go north.

[timNms]

looking better!

That looks great for us! Come on GFS, go north.

Just not so far north that it messes us up down here in the deep south

[Ivanhater]

I think the Canadian last night may be on to something. This low has the potential to bomb in the gulf. That would be great for everyone. Bring down colder air to the coast, more moisture to the north...

[RNGR]

Alright, 00z NAM looks realistic. (maybe a bit too far south with the sfc low) but heres what I see:

Looking at this WV loop, there seems to be a strong jet moving almost due W to E over the SE US, and that seems like the path the upper/mid disturbance would take.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastwv.html

Now, the 00z NAM shows it doing just that

72 hr:


78 hr:

[Brent]

GFS is further north at least:



Still not great but at least it does snow somewhere now.

[PTPatrick]

I guess I just dont understand where they are getting frozen precip on the coast. the 540 line never gets south of hattiesburg during this even on either NAM or GFS. snow seems realistic north of that, But i have trouble seeing it south of there. Unless the models just arnt handling the dynamic cooling that will occur under such intense precip with a deeper low. I just now the last time MObile and NOla posted snow chances for coastal counties, when the models thickness just didnt support it, it ended up being a bombed forecast pretty much east of slidell.