Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TrekkerCC]

Very light frozen drizzle or very light sleet falling in plano, texas (or at least my part of plano) at the moment. It was sleeting harder earlier (I heard pings on the window). I would love to see it transition to snow and surprise everyone, but I'm expecting sleet during the heavy precipitation band later on tonight.

[jeff]

I'm really surprised College Station does not currently have at least a winter weather advisory. The temperature here is already down to 37 degrees and we will have several hours to drop 5 degrees before the precip arrives in the early morning hours. The NWS is forecasting a low of 33 degrees here tonight. I feel like we should at least be under a Winter Weather Advisory as I think we could be below freezing when the precipitation starts.

While the temperature may fall to freezing, the ground is very warm ...even the bridges and overpasses and the rain will be falling from a very warm layer aloft (40-50 degrees) per the 20Z CLL sounding launched. Even if the surface temp is 30-32 ice would probably only accumulate on trees and power lines, fences and even then much may not freeze given the temperature of the falling rain will be so far above freezing.

Will probably get an advisory for Saturday into Sunday in this area if total QPF puts it into that range.

Note: 18Z GFS is much colder and now has IAH falling to freezing 900am Saturday and staying at or below freezing until noon Sunday...will ahve to see if other models start to show this and if the GFS continues this trend on the 00Z run.

[ColdFusion]

Is this line expected to ever push to the SW, or just keep training over basically the same area as the activity streams to the NE? SW Dallas really hasnt gotten anything, and right now the line is retreating back to the NW. All the word is that its (the rain coverage) going to keep filling in, but whats going to cause that to happen?

[Ntxw]

Very light frozen drizzle or very light sleet falling in plano, texas (or at least my part of plano) at the moment. It was sleeting harder earlier (I heard pings on the window). I would love to see it transition to snow and surprise everyone, but I'm expecting sleet during the heavy precipitation band later on tonight.

The RAP actually does a weird mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain when the convective precip blows up. A lot of local dynamics could effect it but it's interesting so don't be surprised if some locations see a crazy mix of all three. It and the HRRR are very consistent sending several rounds of very heavy precipitation right over the metroplex and eastplexers.

[SnowintheFalls]

I just hope we get a lot more in Wichita Falls because it's going to have to be substantial for me to take off work!

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[jeff]

Very light frozen drizzle or very light sleet falling in plano, texas (or at least my part of plano) at the moment. It was sleeting harder earlier (I heard pings on the window). I would love to see it transition to snow and surprise everyone, but I'm expecting sleet during the heavy precipitation band later on tonight.

00Z sounding from DFW shows an above freezing layer from about 1km to 3km above the surface with temps in tis layer peaking around 10-13C. Too warm for snow. Sub-freezing surface layer is about 1000ft thick which is enough to support some sleet with the freezing rain although I would say this is a more freezing rain than sleet sounding. MAF sounding is closer to sleet sounding and OUN very near complete snow sounding

[dhweather]

We're only getting drizzle on the east side right now, but everything elevated has a thin coat of ice on it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is this line expected to ever push to the SW, or just keep training over basically the same area as the activity streams to the NE? SW Dallas really hasnt gotten anything, and right now the line is retreating back to the NW. All the word is that its (the rain coverage) going to keep filling in, but whats going to cause that to happen?

the line isn't retreating, it looks about stationary. Dallas is on the edge of the line though so that means the slightest periodic growth or shrinkage of the line will result wet or dry conditions. This band will gradually move east, the worst isnt expected for like, 7 hours.

[wxman57]

Jeff - did you see the CLL sounding at 20Z today? They're launching another at 12Z tomorrow. If you don't get it sent to you then I can forward it to you.

Plotted some 18Z meteograms. Temps closer to 32 at IAH (north Houston) Saturday with very light precip. Probably some ice in the trees and on power lines but should not be a major problem. Light precip with quite cold temps in Austin, too, but not enough precip to cause power outages or downed trees. For Dallas-Ft. Worth, that't another story...

[txtiff]

Just east of Dallas here. Ice is covering the cars, and building on the fence's. The steps on my porch
have a very think layer of ice already.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm really surprised College Station does not currently have at least a winter weather advisory. The temperature here is already down to 37 degrees and we will have several hours to drop 5 degrees before the precip arrives in the early morning hours. The NWS is forecasting a low of 33 degrees here tonight. I feel like we should at least be under a Winter Weather Advisory as I think we could be below freezing when the precipitation starts.

While the temperature may fall to freezing, the ground is very warm ...even the bridges and overpasses and the rain will be falling from a very warm layer aloft (40-50 degrees) per the 20Z CLL sounding launched. Even if the surface temp is 30-32 ice would probably only accumulate on trees and power lines, fences and even then much may not freeze given the temperature of the falling rain will be so far above freezing.

Will probably get an advisory for Saturday into Sunday in this area if total QPF puts it into that range.

Note: 18Z GFS is much colder and now has IAH falling to freezing 900am Saturday and staying at or below freezing until noon Sunday...will ahve to see if other models start to show this and if the GFS continues this trend on the 00Z run.

Thanks for replying Jeff. The HRRR is forecasting a rain/sleet mix tomorrow morning as well. We'll see.

[iorange55]

I didn't realize the 18z was quite that cold for our area. Geez. It sure would be nice to have a fireplace just in case the power does go out.

[katheria]

:uarrow:

I didn't realize the 18z was quite that cold for our area. Geez. It sure would be nice to have a fireplace just in case the power does go out.

yeah that kinda shocked me.....we dont have one either.
but if power goes out i guess we will setup the popup rv atleast we will have heat....
have a feeling may not go to work monday either now...depending on what we get sat-sun

[paintplaye]

Jeff - did you see the CLL sounding at 20Z today? They're launching another at 12Z tomorrow. If you don't get it sent to you then I can forward it to you.

Not sure if the sounding will be at 12z tomorrow or a little after that. Getting people to help out seems to be the biggest problem as of late with finals and all. There's also the possibility of an evening sounding to co-exist with the morning sounding. For anyone who wants to see what the 20z sounding looked like today here it is:




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[jeff]

I'm really surprised College Station does not currently have at least a winter weather advisory. The temperature here is already down to 37 degrees and we will have several hours to drop 5 degrees before the precip arrives in the early morning hours. The NWS is forecasting a low of 33 degrees here tonight. I feel like we should at least be under a Winter Weather Advisory as I think we could be below freezing when the precipitation starts.

While the temperature may fall to freezing, the ground is very warm ...even the bridges and overpasses and the rain will be falling from a very warm layer aloft (40-50 degrees) per the 20Z CLL sounding launched. Even if the surface temp is 30-32 ice would probably only accumulate on trees and power lines, fences and even then much may not freeze given the temperature of the falling rain will be so far above freezing.

Will probably get an advisory for Saturday into Sunday in this area if total QPF puts it into that range.

Note: 18Z GFS is much colder and now has IAH falling to freezing 900am Saturday and staying at or below freezing until noon Sunday...will ahve to see if other models start to show this and if the GFS continues this trend on the 00Z run.

Thanks for replying Jeff. The HRRR is forecasting a rain/sleet mix tomorrow morning as well. We'll see.

Just looked at the HRRR forecast sounding for CLL for the next 12-15 hours. Currently shows temps near 57 degrees at 4000-5000ft and this actually increases to near 60 degrees overnight and then cools to about 50 degrees tomorrow. Surface temps fall to 32-33 tonight, but the subfreezing layer is not very deep nor cold with the minimum value around 27 degrees. That is going to be some very warm rain falling.

Wx-got the 20Z CLL from HGX. UH might launch a sounding in the morning also...but I already know it is going to show a significant warm nose in the 4000-5000ft level.

[joshskeety]

Heavy sleet in Northern Parker county, definitely getting the brunt of this storm.. All roads covered 25.7 degrees.. All roads have thick layer of ice from freezing rain, but now all sleet and heavy... Winds out of the north at 20mph gusting to 30mph at times..

Cant see cement at the house anymore.. Grass is starting to get covered up..

Have a nice fire roaring in the house and about 2 cords of firewood ready to go.. Although, since I am seeing all sleet now, the chance of power outage is greatly diminished... Springtown and FTW schools are all closed so time to enjoy a 3 day weekend without the worry of outside chores..

[iorange55]

Getting some light sleet here now and what also looks like snow flurries. They sure are floating around like flurries, but I could just be seeing things.

[South Texas Storms]

Jeff,
So you think the NWS is making the right decision in holding off on issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for CLL tonight/tomorrow?
The best chance for ice here is likely on Saturday?

[gatorcane]

Looks like a big mess. Stay safe Texans.

[Rgv20]

Front just arrived in my area about 30 minutes ago....Went from 73 to 63 in 30 minutes. Sorry guys I'm always late to the party lol