Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Brent]

KFOR has a high of 20 with a 50% chance of snow on New Years Day


If I recall correctly, there was another winter storm that happened in 2020-2021, also known as the New Years Winter Storm of 2020-2021

That was the storm I went to Abilene for...

Be ironic if it happened again except maybe this time im home watching it instead

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has a high of 20 with a 50% chance of snow on New Years Day


If I recall correctly, there was another winter storm that happened in 2020-2021, also known as the New Years Winter Storm of 2020-2021

That was the storm I went to Abilene for...

Be ironic if it happened again except maybe this time im home watching it instead

If you went to Choctaw or Midwest City, you would had a lot of fun, one of the teachers that teaches at my school got 8 inches of snow (Since he lives in Choctaw) while I only had a trace because of a snowband.

[Brent]

KFOR has a high of 20 with a 50% chance of snow on New Years Day


If I recall correctly, there was another winter storm that happened in 2020-2021, also known as the New Years Winter Storm of 2020-2021

That was the storm I went to Abilene for...

Be ironic if it happened again except maybe this time im home watching it instead

If you went to Choctaw or Midwest City, you would had a lot of fun, one of the teachers that teaches at my school got 8 inches of snow (Since he lives in Choctaw) while I only had a trace because of a snowband.

Yeah I was still in Dallas last winter. It didn't really snow til February

[cheezyWXguy]

It has always been amusing to me how the gfs and some other models overdramatize the urban heat island effect during what I assume is radiational cooling. At 12z on Jan 3, it shows western Ft worth at 20 degrees and Dallas at 34. Sure it would be warmer there, but 14 degrees, really?

[AustinTXResident]

The GFS, ECMWF, and ICON ensemble means continue to show no freezes for Austin through the end of their runs.

The GFS ensemble mean has barely freezing temperatures (30°) for lows in Dallas this coming weekend but no freezes thereafter. It also forecasts 0.20 inches of sleet/snow this weekend, but with air temperatures no lower than 30° and very warm soil temperatures, the impacts would be mainly on elevated roads. The GFS operational is colder but totally dry for this weekend, as is the ECMWF operational.

I would not 6 days out really advise using an ensembles' average low definitively for a forecast. It is just an average of the various scenarios. Sure, it maybe only 30 or 31, but it could be 39 or 19! NAM and operations will be way more preferred if indeed a cold front looks to come. Too early to make specific calls

The average is used by professionals and governmemt organizations like the Climate Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center, and the Storm Prediction Center. I'll continue doing what the experts do.

[AustinTXResident]

KFOR has a high of 20 with a 50% chance of snow on New Years Day


If I recall correctly, there was another winter storm that happened in 2020-2021, also known as the New Years Winter Storm of 2020-2021

KFOR is a television station?

[Brent]

KFOR has a high of 20 with a 50% chance of snow on New Years Day


If I recall correctly, there was another winter storm that happened in 2020-2021, also known as the New Years Winter Storm of 2020-2021

KFOR is a television station?

That's Mike Morgan's station NBC in OKC

[AustinTXResident]

Well we can throw 2011-2012 out the window since it was extremely cold up there. From NWS Anchorage historic warmth up there too from the big ridge.

https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/1475568750778671106

Broken from '82, '83, 84' winters. All of whom featured at least one major blast into the US. Perhaps wxman57 should book a future flight up there instead??

So big-time warmth in Kodiak foreshadows big-time cold for Texas? Source?

Where in my post did I say that? Seems like you made that assumption on your own. We have tongue-in cheek discussions with wxman57 about warmth in Alaska and some big blasts in the past. All that was said was the three years listed by the NWS in Anchorage, clearly you can do a reanalysis from ncep and look if you'd like plenty of resources to use.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.narr.html

Also if you need more resources plenty to pick from including psl and CIRES all great tools, pick one.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/tables/subdaily.html

I just took you at your written word and wasn't aware of the historical banter you described.

I already have access to plenty of reliable, science-based resources. Thanks anyway.

[AustinTXResident]

KFOR has a high of 20 with a 50% chance of snow on New Years Day


If I recall correctly, there was another winter storm that happened in 2020-2021, also known as the New Years Winter Storm of 2020-2021

KFOR is a television station?

That's Mike Morgan's station NBC in OKC

And he is?

[ElectricStorm]

KFOR is a television station?

That's Mike Morgan's station NBC in OKC

And he is?

The chief met there

[Brent]

KFOR is a television station?

That's Mike Morgan's station NBC in OKC

And he is?

He was the one who was famous during the El Reno tornado for telling people in OKC to drive south away from the tornado

[Iceresistance]

:spam:

That's Mike Morgan's station NBC in OKC

And he is?

He was the one who was famous during the El Reno tornado for telling people in OKC to drive south away from the tornado

I heard about that, because he thought it was heading into the city & he knew that the interior closet would not survive 300 mph winds & a lot of residents were weary from the May 20th Moore EF5 that happened only 11 days before (And the Shawnee EF-4 12 days before)

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has a high of 20 with a 50% chance of snow on New Years Day


If I recall correctly, there was another winter storm that happened in 2020-2021, also known as the New Years Winter Storm of 2020-2021

KFOR is a television station?

Yes, it's the NBC of Oklahoma City, KFOR News 4

[TexasF6]

Sooo, is Champ The Charger firing up or nah? Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays everyone! I'm watching source regions and listening to wxman57 and Porta and the seasoned ProMets around here for wx wisdom.

[Haris]

The GFS, ECMWF, and ICON ensemble means continue to show no freezes for Austin through the end of their runs.

The GFS ensemble mean has barely freezing temperatures (30°) for lows in Dallas this coming weekend but no freezes thereafter. It also forecasts 0.20 inches of sleet/snow this weekend, but with air temperatures no lower than 30° and very warm soil temperatures, the impacts would be mainly on elevated roads. The GFS operational is colder but totally dry for this weekend, as is the ECMWF operational.

I would not 6 days out really advise using an ensembles' average low definitively for a forecast. It is just an average of the various scenarios. Sure, it maybe only 30 or 31, but it could be 39 or 19! NAM and operations will be way more preferred if indeed a cold front looks to come. Too early to make specific calls

The average is used by professionals and governmemt organizations like the Climate Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center, and the Storm Prediction Center. I'll continue doing what the experts do.

Right, but none of them copy a ensemble mean verbatim for a temperature.

[AustinTXResident]

These models say no freeze for Austin for this weekend and during the remainder of their runs:
ECMWF ensemble mean
GFS operational
GFS ensemble mean
ACCESS-G

The ECMWF operational predicts brief and light freezes of 30° Sunday morning and 32° Monday morning. No freezes thereafter. No frozen or freezing precipitation.

The ICON operational predicts a brief and light freeze of 31° Monday morning. No other freezes, and no frozen or freezing precipitation.

Only GEM goes intense with the cold (but dry). Even it, however, is slowly backing off from the super cold forecast.

[AustinTXResident]

I would not 6 days out really advise using an ensembles' average low definitively for a forecast. It is just an average of the various scenarios. Sure, it maybe only 30 or 31, but it could be 39 or 19! NAM and operations will be way more preferred if indeed a cold front looks to come. Too early to make specific calls

The average is used by professionals and governmemt organizations like the Climate Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center, and the Storm Prediction Center. I'll continue doing what the experts do.

Right, but none of them copy a ensemble mean verbatim for a temperature.

They use the ensembles and their well-trained professional judgment. Most of us lack the latter and the advanced degress to back it up.

The following is from today's prognostic discussion issued by the Climate Prediction Center in support of its 6-10 day forecast: "The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Yesterday's 12z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 7, and 10% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8."

[AustinTXResident]

:spam:

That's Mike Morgan's station NBC in OKC

And he is?

He was the one who was famous during the El Reno tornado for telling people in OKC to drive south away from the tornado :lol:

Everyone already should have known that the only option is to run from an approaching EF4 or 5 tornado unless a purpose-built tornado shelter is readily available.

[Ntxw]

No snow on the icon yet, which it hasn't for the most part so far, with a sharper trough axis. Here's the temp trends on it though if you're curious. Front does clear the coast by Saturday night, early Sunday morning.

[AustinTXResident]

The ICON operational forecast for Dallas on Saturday cuts off all the precipitation when the temperature is still near 50°.