Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

It is a big deal to be colder than normal, because I am sick of this lame, pathetic, mild winter weather we have had to suffer through for years now.

I am fairly confident that there will be some snowfall in parts of the lowlands this weekend, but I am not going for widespread...yet. I do agree with you that early March seems to be coming up as a good window of opportunity for something good to happen.

As for the cold spell this weekend, I just think it's going to be colder than the NWS is predicting. The conditions appear favorable for some highs in the upper 30s, or maybe mid 30s with any bit of luck. The real question will be the lows. If it clears out, and we get some continental air we could see some upper teens to mid 20s. The thought of spring in early Feb makes me ill, and a hard freeze would be REALLY nice.

Am I correct in gathering that you are doubting the El Nino experts about the patterns this winter? Did my OLR discussion mean anything to you? As I have said before, a -4 PNA with an El Nino is unheard of...(I should not say that, because you may find one example, but it is EXCEEDINGLY rare).

[cloud9]

snow_wizzard, Heres the wesites, I'd like your input. http://www.kathleenkeating.com go to (listen now radio show) also this prof. met has a wesite called http://www.weatherwars.info

[~Brennan~]

Wow, I can't help but become more and more frusterated after reading these posts from TT SEA... Whenever I read what he says I say to myself, "what the heck is he talking about?" And then I read what Snow Wizzard has to say and I say to myself, "YES, HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY DENY THAT?" and I just don't know exactly where TT is coming from... Sure he knows some stuff about weather but like SnowWizz said it is becoming rediculous. It's like you are trying to take over and become the leader of this place... You said that Anthony and R-Dub and Brian have accepted reality and are enjoying the nice weather... That is INSANE. I can guarentee you everyone is enjoying this nice weather, but nobody is giving up hope on snow this year and nobody is happy with what we have gotten in terms of cold and snow.

Now this weekend. How can you say it is going to be normal for February? A normal February week would be highs in the mid to upper 40's with a snow level at 3-4000 feet... That would be 500MB thicknesses at about 534 or so with a zonal flow. This weekend is going to be far from that... How can you deny that we are going to get cold? It is all right in front of your face... The heights may not be all that low but thicknesses down to between 516-522 is getting cold. During the January cold spell we never had thickness below 516 if i can remember right. And this weekend also is going to have 850MB temps of at least -6*C which is EASILY cold enough for snow. Oh and have you looked at the first 4 days of the GFS? It looks to me like we will be in a northerly flow by Sunday with 850MB temps -9C...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

That sure doesn't look like a normal February weather pattern to me... WHAT DOES THIS LOOK LIKE TO YOU TTSEA? if you say that looks like highs in the 40's and lows around freezin then I think I'll go ahead and QUIT now. Because trying to convince you that we are going to get cold could get old...

I hope you have the guts to admit you were wrong after this weekend. If we are wrong about this and it's not cold I will step up and admit it, ithat's pretty cold if you don't...

[TT-SEA]

No... I agreed that the El Nino signal is weak. There is basically no El Nino left.

Great. No argument.

But the pattern is El Nino-like. You cannot disagree. Whatever the reason... it LOOKS like El Nino even though its not.

You are forecasting with your heart. Your anger over this pattern is palpable. You want it to snow and be cold so bad that it clouds your judgement. I am telling you... this is what is happening to you.

If a night of 30 degree weather makes you happy... you will likely get your wish. Do not rush on here to tell me that its 30 degrees on Monday morning. I know its coming.

But in San Diego... we had quite a few mornings in the inland suburbs where we lived that got down into the upper 20's in January and February. Its not a big deal.

And by Friday afternoon it will 60 degrees here.

A high of 25 degrees and 10 inches of snow at Sea-Tac would be a big deal. But it will not happen.

And watching those tapes from 1996... I would not want that right now. What an incredible sloppy, disgusting mess when it melted. And destructive.

I am sorry that you cannot enjoy this amazing stretch of weather. Its too bad because it has been incredible.

[snow_wizzard]

Cloud9...Thank you for the vote of confidence! I just saw the link you were talking about. It looks very interesting and I book marked it. The sound on my computer is not funtioning so I can't listen to anything.

[cloud9]

Rdub said his sound cards out to. The website is very good, don't need a soud card Snow_wizzard, I like your attitude, keep up the good work!!!

[TT-SEA]

Well... the debate will be settled soon.

Lets lay out our cards. Thats the only way we will know who is right.

TT's forecast (Sea-Tac):

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-42
Friday - Rain developing Hi-47 Lo-40
Saturday - Showers Hi-44 Lo-37
Sunday - Showers Hi-42 Lo-35
Monday - Showers / Sun Breaks Hi-42 Lo-30
Tuesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-48 Lo-32
Wednesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-50 Low-36
Thursday - Partly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-38
Friday - Mostly Sunny Hi-59 Lo-40


Overall thats a pretty average week for February. The NWS has stated repeatedly that we will finally have NORMAL weather this weekend. So I don't know what planet I am living on. Off in my own world here. The world where everyone else lives... reality.

[cloud9]

The last couple of days the yellowjackets have been buzzing around my door, hope we have a hard freeze

[~Brennan~]

Hey TTSEA... i don't think anyone lives at Sea-tac airport so why don't you give a general forecast for other areas like... Seattle Metro area. Highs 40-45 so we can get a better Idea of your temps for the weekend... What do you think Bellingham's temps will be like over the weekend?

[snow_wizzard]

Are you telling me you don't see the cold 850mb temps and N to S pressure gradient on that ECMWF link? That spells Fraser outflow. If the models trend any colder than this it could be a significant cold snap. We don't always have to assume that the models will trend warmer. We are due for one of these to go our way.

That brings me to another point. Everyone has been saying that the GFS has all of these false alarms about the cold because of the terrain. Why did the terrain not keep us from getting cold in the past? The problem with the GFS is that it has been incorrect on the upper level flow patterns (which are not effected by terrain). If you have a high amp offhsore ridge, which extends above the Arctic circle and heights below 528, it is going to get cold, reguardless of terrain. I just don't totally buy that the whole issue is terrain realted. It is not that hard for cold air to rush down the Fraser valley. I have seen the valley, a long ways up and it is huge. We just simply have not had the upper level troughing necessary to drive an Arctic surface high far enough south.

TT...You now see, why a few more years of this would force me to move. I just can't take it anymore. Cle Elum would be just fine...100 inches of snow per winter. I would have done it by now, if there weren't so many drawbacks to leaving.

[TT-SEA]

I am just using Sea-Tac as a common point.

Of course some areas are colder or warmer than Sea-Tac. Just lay out your forecast for Sea-Tac and we can judge that.

As long as we forecast for the same exact point it will be fair.

[andycottle]

Well... the debate will be settled soon.

Lets lay out our cards. Thats the only way we will know who is right.

TT's forecast (Sea-Tac):

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-42
Friday - Rain developing Hi-47 Lo-40
Saturday - Showers Hi-44 Lo-37
Sunday - Showers Hi-42 Lo-35
Monday - Showers / Sun Breaks Hi-42 Lo-30
Tuesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-48 Lo-32
Wednesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-50 Low-36
Thursday - Partly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-38
Friday - Mostly Sunny Hi-59 Lo-40


Overall thats a pretty average week for February. The NWS has stated repeatedly that we will finally have NORMAL weather this weekend. So I don't know what planet I am living on. Off in my own world here. The world where everyone else lives... reality.

Tim....did you do a copy/paste sort of thing for that Thursday - Friday forecast? Kinda sounds like it.....but I could be wrong:) -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

No... just winged it.

Thats what I think will happen. I will stand by it right or wrong.

Snow_Wizzard and Brennan need to lay out their forecast for Sea-Tac.

[snow_wizzard]

I am going to do a little different kind of forecast. I will say the the weekend could have some snow showers, mainly in the foothills and the north part. The latest GFS certainly shows some. As for temps. (during the cold spell) I will say highs 30 - 35 in the extreme north and 37 - 42 for the central areas. Lows (very tricky) 27 - 32 for the city and areas near water....possibly as low as 18 - 24 in the outlying areas. Certainly far colder than the NWS is saying. I do not think next week will get as warm as everyone thinks. The ridge axis will either be right over us or offshore, so the cold air will have a very hard time getting scoured out. Once it gets cold, something has to get rid of it...wind or clouds to inhibit radiational cooling from perpetuating the cold. There is no indication of any significant offshore winds even near the foothills, so I am going 40 - 45 (perhaps some areas near 50) for the mid to latter part of the week. This could actually be a good string of subfreezing nights in the outlying areas. The lawns will go dormant again!

I hate being pinned down for a forecast for one location. It does not tell the whole story at all. I would actually say for Sea - Tac you are not far off. I would go colder for the end of next week, on both the highs and lows. I would also drop the lows to the 25 - 30 range for early next week.

It should be noted that there is still a chance for a more widespread snowfall. The GFS and ECMWF are on the edge....

[TT-SEA]

No lawns are going dormant.

They will be fine. It would take highs below freezing for that.

Our forecast is about the same. Low 40's for highs and around 30 for lows at Sea-Tac. That is about what the NWS says as well.

You may be right about cooler air lingering into next week... but not cold. High pressure will be returning. And springtime will continue right where it left off.

All this debate and we are saying the same thing. A cool spell like this (slightly below normal and a little wet) is perfectly normal for February.

What is all this fuss about??

Time for bed.

[~Brennan~]

I'd say it's going to be a little bit more than a tad below normal... Not typical February... In fact, the last time I remember having temps much below normal was in February was in 2001. This weekend won't be typical february weather... Whenever the Word snow for lowland is even hinted in the picture I don't think it's typical for around here these days.
Sure it could be for the SEA TAC AIRPORT, but even when we had the cold spell in January, there was nothing but a few cold nights at Sea tac, they didn't even get any snow. Is that typical too?

[cloud9]

With all the wacky weather going on, maybe Feb. 14 will be the Valentines day massacre with sub-freezing temps and 10 inches of snow for the lowlands. That's my prediction

[cloud9]

TT, I would be really happy if the yellowjackets went dormant

[~Brennan~]

Haha, that is pretty crazy that you already have yellow jackets out... hey maybe you should get stung by one and then you can tell everyone that you got stung by a yellow jacket in early february...

Now that we are talking about how this upcoming weather will be a typical February cool spell, I might bring up some some information that is actually sad... Since 1998, Sea Tac Airport has only recorded 4 days of High Temperatures below 40*, none below 37*... The lowest temperature since 1998 in February was 25* which happened only once... So anything out of the ordinary like this weekend I would not call a typical February pattern. maybe Sea Tac will get below 25* and then we can say something has happened that hasn't happend in over 7 years.

[TT-SEA]

Another NWS discussion... and ANOTHER mention of "normal" weather this weekend. And also the fact that spring will return.

.EXTENDED...THE SPELL OF NORMAL FEBRUARY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH WESTERN WASHINGTON REMAINING IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOT OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN DAY 6 AND 7 AS FAR AS HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AT THAT POINT. EURO MODEL ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE RIDGE SOLUTION WITH THE EURO SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL GO DRY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT NOT AS WARM AS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FELTON


Latest forecast RAISED snow levels from 1500 feet to 2000 feet on Sunday.