Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MGC]

I'm also skeptical of the snow chances along the coast. Seems every time snow is forecast it don't happen, and when it is not forecast somehow it does. I think any realistic chance of snow will be well inland.....MGC

[Brent]

I'm also skeptical of the snow chances along the coast. Seems every time snow is forecast it don't happen, and when it is not forecast somehow it does. I think any realistic chance of snow will be well inland.....MGC

That's what I'm thinking as well. I guess it could changeover at the very end to flurries but it is not going to be snow for most of the event IMO. If the storm is way suppressed to the south nobody will get snow because it'll be too warm.

[Stormcenter]

The NWS does not seem to be putting too much weight on either of the 2 models you mention. IMO.

I guess I just dont understand where they are getting frozen precip on the coast. the 540 line never gets south of hattiesburg during this even on either NAM or GFS. snow seems realistic north of that, But i have trouble seeing it south of there. Unless the models just arnt handling the dynamic cooling that will occur under such intense precip with a deeper low. I just now the last time MObile and NOla posted snow chances for coastal counties, when the models thickness just didnt support it, it ended up being a bombed forecast pretty much east of slidell.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian shows another epic snow storm for the Gulfcoast

[PTPatrick]

was just about to post that Ivan. So far CMC seems to have the best support for a snow event, followed by Nam, and GFS respectively. Should be an interesting one. I would say that I have hope for yall, this is the type year for it to happen. There have been so many mid south snows that I almost have to believe its time for the GC to get in on the action. And it helps that El NIno years generally make it more likey to have snow.

NOLA NWS has an interesting product out showing years and dates of accumulating snows for the area...and interstingly enough they seem to come in close together years, followed by long periods with nothing. Like 3 snow events in the 1950s and nothing in the 40s or 60s, or 70s, then again in the 80/90s. just interesting.

[Brent]

HOLY CRAP

[Ntxw]

Euro is further north with the ULL. Looks like Alabama and Georgia might not miss out on the fun after all if this trend continues. The NAM has shifted the track north back in Texas which I think should do the same for the rest of the south.

[SunnyThoughts]

Thursday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then snow and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Friday: Snow. High near 41. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.


don't see forecasts like this on the coast very often lol but we shall see if it verifies.

[SunnyThoughts]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102300-
UPPER
MOBILE-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WASHINGTON-CONECUH-MONROE-BUTLER-CLARKE-
CRENSHAW-WILCOX-CHOCTAW-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA
ROSA-GEORGE-STONE-PERRY-GREENE-WAYNE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER
BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA
ROSA-
521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010
...POTENTIAL INCREASING OF WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION BY WEEKS END AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84...AND WILL THEN CHANGE TO AND REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING FROM THE WEST. CLOSER TO THE COAST...RAIN
WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT AND A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW
MIX COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID MORNING FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

IT IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE TO PIN POINT EXACT
SNOWFALL TOTALS BECAUSE IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME PRIOR TO THE
EVENT AND MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY INLAND.

IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY EITHER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR A
POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WARNING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

NOTE...IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW VERIFIES A LITTLE MORE SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...COLDER AIR AND CRITICAL COLD SEASON
THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY BE PULLED MORE SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW.

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SLICK
SPOTS BEGIN TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY...SUBFREEZING
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS THAT LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADS AND OVERPASSES WILL REFREEZE...MAINTAINING SLICK SPOTS AND
MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS STORM

[timNms]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>055-059>066-072>074-102000-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0002.100212T0600Z-100212T2000Z/
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...
NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...
WEST FERRIDAY...PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...
WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING. SOME SLEET OR RAIN COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW AT THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND WILL BECOME
HEAVY OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2
TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO
RECEIVE MORE THAN HALF OF A FOOT OF SNOW. THESE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE HEAVY...WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES. EVERYONE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE FOR MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

[timNms]

Time to get gas for the generator

[SunnyThoughts]

WOW Timnms, be careful up there. Stay safe and enjoy!

[attallaman]

HOLY CRAP

I see the words "HOLY CRAP" but I don't see your image, just a box with a red "X" in it.

[timNms]

HOLY CRAP

I see the words "HOLY CRAP" but I don't see your image, just a box with a red "X" in it.

I don't even see the red X

[RNGR]

well, I give up on this storm.. i dont see any models showing more than a dusting of snow in my area and FFC has taken all wording of snow and changed it to rain in the forecast.

[PTPatrick]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

12z nam featuring epic MS Gulf coast snow...the likes of the storm that dumped near of a foot in Stone county north of Biloxi back in the 60s. 54 hr picture is definately telling, a period of heavy snow in areas from Pass crhristian to biloxi to pascagoula friday before lunch. The 60 graph may indicate a change to sleet later on friday. The QPF for the last 12 hrs here 12z Fri-0z Sat is 3/4 inch. This would be during the coolest period and most likely in the form of sleet or snow. That could equate to as much as 3-6 wet inches along the coast. the inland counties would see more. This one is getting a little more interesting. I'd like to see what 12z CMC has to say as it had some pretty good snows for that area too.

[attallaman]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_054l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

12z nam featuring epic MS Gulf coast snow...the likes of the storm that dumped near of a foot in Stone county north of Biloxi back in the 60s. 54 hr picture is definately telling, a period of heavy snow in areas from Pass crhristian to biloxi to pascagoula friday before lunch. The 60 graph may indicate a change to sleet later on friday. The QPF for the last 12 hrs here 12z Fri-0z Sat is 3/4 inch. This would be during the coolest period and most likely in the form of sleet or snow. That could equate to as much as 3-6 wet inches along the coast. the inland counties would see more. This one is getting a little more interesting. I'd like to see what 12z CMC has to say as it had some pretty good snows for that area too.

Are you saying that I might get some snow here in Biloxi? I'm near the beach, not north of I-10. I'd settle for 1-2" if it would stick for a day just to take a few good pics.

[IvanSurvivor]

Just signed in for first time since Hurricane Season. I have no idea how to read the winter maps (or the tropical ones for that matter ....what's it looking like currently for Pensacola south of I-10 near the coast?

[Ivanhater]

Might be taking a trip to Home Depot for some snow shovels along the Gulfcoast!

[Stormcenter]

This is crazy if it pans out.

Might be taking a trip to Home Depot for some snow shovels along the Gulfcoast!