Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Big O]

Anyone seen the 12z European. Toward the middle and latter part of the forecast period, a strong ridge is forecast to develop into Alaska which sends a trough digging into west-central US. Anyone know if arctic air reaches Texas during this time period given that the trough axis is far to our north. Near the end of the run, the upper air flow appears confused. Would anyone more proficient at model analysis, please chime in.

[Texas MidCoaster]

Complete Newbie here. I am an avid fisherman and can recall the massive fish-kill we endured in the early 80's due to continuous days of sub-freezing weather. I realize the tenuous nature of model forecasts, but is the GFS setting us up for a similar event on the coast?

[richtrav]

Jason

Yes I saw their even more ridiculous numbers this morning, and the more I look at their progs for other cities the less credible I find their numbers to be. They now have DFW down to the 1-3F range IIRC. Well, ok, fine, but some common sense checking shows how flimsy those numbers are. Look up the predicted minima for Cut Bank or International Falls: they're only about 5 degrees colder! That alone should raise some serious red flags about their forecast. Near-zero record cold in Dallas has to come from somewhere, and readings barely below 0 in Cut Bank or Int'l Falls ain't gonna do the trick.

On the bright side though I'll get to scare my cold-paranoid friend in Austin yet once again (I've done it so many times courtesy of that site) when I send him today's forecast. Gosh I've used that site so many times the past couple of years to scare the tar out of him I almost feel a little guilty doing it Just about every winter they predict a good strong 10-12 degree freeze event for Austin and every time he falls for it

Actually richtrav that seems like good thinking but it is not....every time we get a really cold shot (think 1989) in fact we are COLDER than the temp in northern plains....you don't have to get a continuous drop in temps with latitude....the air displaces and travels south......if it isn't reinforced they have return flow and can actually warm quite dramatically WHILE we are below freezing way down south....so the model actually makes sense....

Sure, but here's the problem I have. Look at their forecast for Cut Bank:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KCTB

The absolute coldest they have at any time is -9. I am old enough to remember the '80s and when it got really cold in TX the bottom had fallen out up north every time, like temps of -40 or worse up in Montana. And as mentioned before, that site predicts ridiculously cold weather just about every year in TX. It'd be worth checking wunderground's database of bad cold snaps like Jan 82, Dec 83, Feb 85, Feb 89, Dec 89 and Dec 90 to see what happened back then up north

[AggieSpirit]

I am officially -removed- for 1 foot of snow in Midlothian, Texas.

If this wishcast verifies, I will have died and gone to heaven.

[Ntxw]

probably not from one storm but a series throughout winter is not completely out of the realms of possibilities

[srainhoutx]

Anyone seen the 12z European. Toward the middle and latter part of the forecast period, a strong ridge is forecast to develop into Alaska which sends a trough digging into west-central US. Anyone know if arctic air reaches Texas during this time period given that the trough axis is far to our north. Near the end of the run, the upper air flow appears confused. Would anyone more proficient at model analysis, please chime in.

Just took a look at the ECMWF. What we are seeing via the model as well as the GFS is an unusual pattern for us in the South. There are two Upper Air features of note. The Polar Jet is suppressed very far S. We also have an Arctic Jet that wants to phase with the Polar Stream. Add to the mix the Sub Tropical Jet as well as any shortwaves (Upper Air Disturbances) riding along the various upper flow and you have a setup for some very complex weather. The Heights in the Arctic region are very noticeable as storms rotate. Add to the mix the blocking pattern setting up near Greenland as well as a moderate Central Pacific El Nino event. I often like to show the Big Picture WV Imagery. Being a visual kind of person, it helps to 'see' the players in motion. Simple answer, but hope it helps.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

Edited for spelling

[Portastorm]

With regards to the debate re: temps on the Wxweb site (IPS Meteostar) ... folks, those are merely machine numbers derived from the GFS runs every six hours. Nothing more and nothing less. It is not a site that actually "predicts" the weather. The numbers are automated.

Secondly, while I understand and agree with richtrav's logic that you cannot have an Arctic outbreak in Texas without seeing some minus 20s or 30s or 40s in Montana ... you also cannot make the assumption that since the model run doesn't show anything more severe than a negative 9 for Cut Bank, Montana, that the model is also wrong in Texas. The logic of "if it's wrong in this specific location, it's wrong in every location" doesn't work.

[shibumi]

Sure, but here's the problem I have. Look at their forecast for Cut Bank:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KCTB

The absolute coldest they have at any time is -9. I am old enough to remember the '80s and when it got really cold in TX the bottom had fallen out up north every time, like temps of -40 or worse up in Montana. And as mentioned before, that site predicts ridiculously cold weather just about every year in TX. It'd be worth checking wunderground's database of bad cold snaps like Jan 82, Dec 83, Feb 85, Feb 89, Dec 89 and Dec 90 to see what happened back then up north

AAAHHH...my bad I didn't realise you were talking about the temps up there AT THE SAME TIME as our southern cold....

I have heard talk about the polar vortex being located over SE Canada/Great Lakes....and also talks of a backing trough...this would put the source region for out potential cold more east I believe....

Plus Cut Bank is in teh NW corner of Montana against The Rockies...so if any spot north of us would miss such a cold spell, you can't get too much farther away from the polar vortex than that before you hit mountains...

make sense? who knows!

[wgdade]

http://gdadeblog.blogspot.com/2009/12/s ... ecast.html

6Z GFS shows a pretty interesting development for the week of Christmas from the possibilty of severe weather to snow in East Texas. The 12Z GFS now shows a major snow a few days after Christmas. Now all this will change over the next few days but it is fun to watch!

[HockeyTx82]

http://gdadeblog.blogspot.com/2009/12/sneak-peek-at-christmas-forecast.html

6Z GFS shows a pretty interesting development for the week of Christmas from the possibilty of severe weather to snow in East Texas. The 12Z GFS now shows a major snow a few days after Christmas. Now all this will change over the next few days but it is fun to watch!

What if I don't want it to change?

[wgdade]

I will say this, I am out of town a few days after Christmas so that boosts the odds a good bit. When I leave, interesting things seem to happen. My wife calls me the storm stopper.

[lrak]

I will say this, I am out of town a few days after Christmas so that boosts the odds a good bit. When I leave, interesting things seem to happen. My wife calls me the storm stopper.

I don't think I can say what my wife calls me on this forum.

I've already got the fins off my surfboard and readying up the 4 wheeler and ski rope!

[HockeyTx82]

I will say this, I am out of town a few days after Christmas so that boosts the odds a good bit. When I leave, interesting things seem to happen. My wife calls me the storm stopper.

Hmmm..... well if things crazy when you are gone I think there are a few of on on this board who would more then happy to help you extend your vacation so it stays that way.

[HockeyTx82]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST WED DEC 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE AND EASTERLY WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH OF I-20 AND MID 30S TO NEAR 40 SOUTH OF
I-20.

THE UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WEST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM 700 MB AND
ABOVE...BUT VERY DRY AIR BELOW THIS AIR. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

LOOKING PAST THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A
TROUGH ONSHORE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE GFS WANTS TO DROP THIS
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN SWING IT ACROSS TEXAS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING COLD AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF...KEEPS THE TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS IN THE EXTENDED AND WILL NOT
LATCH ON TO A PARTICULAR SOLUTION UNTIL THE MODELS BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT...BUT NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY
INTERESTING IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES.

[srainhoutx]

Got to love some of the wording in AFD's this afternoon...

Austin/San Antonio

TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY IN THE GULF ADVECTION..BUT A PRE-CHRISTMAS
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL CHANGE
ALL THAT. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AT THE SAME TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIRMASS HAS A
CHANCE TO BUILD IN. THUS..COOL WITH SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS EVE. AT
FIRST GLANCE..CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS DRY BUT COLD. HOWEVER..IF THIS
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND DIGS FURTHER SOUTH..CHRISTMAS DAY COULD BE INTERESTING.

Houston/Galveston

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE MAY COME BACK TO THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON
TUESDAY...AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY COME INTO THE PICTURE BY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TIMING PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT EVEN ATTEMPT TO MAKE
A GUESS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL BE LIKE FOR CHRISTMAS. 42

[lrak]

The last one is funny!

[Ntxw]

Does anyone recall a storm in which the models have consistently shown run after run this far out like this one on the GFS?

[gboudx]

Ha, ha, ha!!!

I just looked at the Accuweather Pro snowcover model and from Dec 26 to January 1, it keeps snow cover from a line from Baffin Bay to Laredo northward ! A good 80% of the lower 48 has snow cover.

Wow, can you post a link?

It's on the Accuweather Pro Site.

If that verifies (which it won't), then we'd be talking about some very historic stuff here along with the temps.

Maybe it's what Bastardi is showing in the free video below.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... Widespread

[somethingfunny]

Does anyone recall a storm in which the models have consistently shown run after run this far out like this one on the GFS?

Sure, the models all consistently had Hurricane Bill drilling Puerto Rico in half run after run, this far out anyway.

[natlib]

Teaser in the San Angelo AFD:

Long term...
northwest upper flow continuesthis weekend...as upper trough
moves east. Cold front Friday with surface high pressure builds into
the region into Saturday. Went cooler on the lows with dry
atmosphere and light winds Thursday and Friday nights. Surface
trough developing Sunday brings warmer temperatures Monday into
Tuesday.


Models diverge on solutions the middle of next week...with GFS
bringing an Arctic cold front with Canadian orgins
Wednesday...along with some wintry possibilities on Thursday
(24th) as an upper trough moves across. European model (ecmwf) holds off cold air
until Friday (christmas) ... it is dry for west central Texas with
main portion of upper trough to the north. Going with the GFS
right now...which is somewhat similar to the previous model runs.
Mentioned cold air coming in Wednesday...however Thursday is still
outside this forecast package...so no precipitation mentioned.
Still lots of uncertainty this far off...but at least a little
potential for snow Christmas evening or Christmas day.