Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.

Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!

[hamburgerman7070]

Does anyone know if the mjo goes from phase 5 into the circle of death, what would that mean for us?

[Cpv17]

All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.

Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.

[orangeblood]

All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.

Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.

Well put it this way, it appears to be the coldest air of the season coming down so far

[wxman22]

All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.

Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.

You don't need a very strong arctic outbreak to get cold enough for frozen precipitation,I've seen winter events even here in southeast Texas with a mid 1030mb high.Anything too strong and we won't have enough moisture to work with due to suppression. A 1040mb territory high is the sweet spot imo.

[Cpv17]

Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.

You don't need a very strong arctic outbreak to get cold enough for frozen precipitation,I've seen winter events even here in southeast Texas with a mid 1030mb high.Anything too strong and we won't have enough moisture to work with due to suppression. A 1040mb territory high is the sweet spot imo.

I would have my doubts about a low 1040 mb high being strong enough for frozen precipitation as far south as southeast TX, but I’m sure you know a whole lot more about the weather than I do lol

[Lagreeneyes03]

The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.

You don't need a very strong arctic outbreak to get cold enough for frozen precipitation,I've seen winter events even here in southeast Texas with a mid 1030mb high.Anything too strong and we won't have enough moisture to work with due to suppression. A 1040mb territory high is the sweet spot imo.

I would have my doubts about a low 1040 mb high being strong enough for frozen precipitation as far south as southeast TX, but I’m sure you know a whole lot more about the weather than I do lol

Should be good enough for NTX(DFW) though...and we're the ones in the snow drought.

[cheezyWXguy]

If something along the lines of that 12z FV3 plays out, Ill be satisfied.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.

You don't need a very strong arctic outbreak to get cold enough for frozen precipitation,I've seen winter events even here in southeast Texas with a mid 1030mb high.Anything too strong and we won't have enough moisture to work with due to suppression. A 1040mb territory high is the sweet spot imo.

You are correct my warm weatherd friend, the best snow making temps for NTX are 28-31 degrees, once you get into the mid 20's it's getting to dry, and usually you only get that grainy lite crap. For the BIG fluffy flakes 29 or 30.

[gpsnowman]

Yep. Nothing wrong with bone chilling arctic cold but give me 30 degrees while it is dumping fatties for hours and hours. Like 2010 when it was 33 all day with a foot of snow.

[Brent]

You don't need a very strong arctic outbreak to get cold enough for frozen precipitation,I've seen winter events even here in southeast Texas with a mid 1030mb high.Anything too strong and we won't have enough moisture to work with due to suppression. A 1040mb territory high is the sweet spot imo.

I would have my doubts about a low 1040 mb high being strong enough for frozen precipitation as far south as southeast TX, but I’m sure you know a whole lot more about the weather than I do lol

Should be good enough for NTX(DFW) though...and we're the ones in the snow drought.

True missing to the SE like last year is the worst

[Ralph's Weather]

The ideal situation would be a 1040mb high over KS with a closed low ejecting out just south of El Paso. I aim for 29-34 degrees while it snows all afternoon and clear overnight with temps dropping into the teens to set the snow good for it to last a couple days or even until a trailing system comes along a couple days later if I am being greedy. Think late Feb into early Mar 2015 with a bit colder upper atmosphere to make it all snow.

[CaptinCrunch]

The ideal situation would be a 1040mb high over KS with a closed low ejecting out just south of El Paso. I aim for 29-34 degrees while it snows all afternoon and clear overnight with temps dropping into the teens to set the snow good for it to last a couple days or even until a trailing system comes along a couple days later if I am being greedy. Think late Feb into early Mar 2015 with a bit colder upper atmosphere to make it all snow.

That's what was missing in 2010, the drop into the 20's. Sucked to see a foot of snow vanish in 3 days, except where it stayed shaded, that stuck around for a week.

[Lagreeneyes03]

The ideal situation would be a 1040mb high over KS with a closed low ejecting out just south of El Paso. I aim for 29-34 degrees while it snows all afternoon and clear overnight with temps dropping into the teens to set the snow good for it to last a couple days or even until a trailing system comes along a couple days later if I am being greedy. Think late Feb into early Mar 2015 with a bit colder upper atmosphere to make it all snow.

That's what was missing in 2010, the drop into the 20's. Sucked to see a foot of snow vanish in 3 days, except where it stayed shaded, that stuck around for a week.

We did get that drop in 2013 for Icemageddon though

[Ralph's Weather]

Last Jan we got it. Down to 6 degrees. That 2 inches persisted for over 2 days.

Late winter 2015 was the best though as snow was on the ground for almost 2 weeks in the shade as we got a bit of snow or sleet every few days for over a week.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS ejects the storm late next week much faster. It is way too far out to be too concerned with individual op runs though. Just watch for 500mb trends on the ensembles this week and next week we can start looking at finer details if something is going to come.

[Quixotic]

09-10, 02-03 and 77-78 didn’t have big arctic outbreaks. It was cold but just steady split flow with polar air. I have fond memories of 09-10 but 77-78 seemed like there was a chance of snow every day for all of January and February.

[orangeblood]

09-10, 02-03 and 77-78 didn’t have big arctic outbreaks. It was cold but just steady split flow with polar air. I have fond memories of 09-10 but 77-78 seemed like there was a chance of snow every day for all of January and February.

Just curious, what do you consider an Arctic Outbreak? Jan and Feb 1978 had numerous days of 20-30F below normal, about as extreme as you get around here...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

09-10, 02-03 and 77-78 didn’t have big arctic outbreaks. It was cold but just steady split flow with polar air. I have fond memories of 09-10 but 77-78 seemed like there was a chance of snow every day for all of January and February.

Just curious, what do you consider an Arctic Outbreak? Jan and Feb 1978 had numerous days of 20-30F below normal, about as extreme as you get around here...

To me, I think people confuse 30s and even sometimes upper 20s with Arctic outbreaks. We can achieve that without a true upper air pattern that delivers Arctic air.

When I think true Arctic plunges, they typically happen in neutral or La Niña years when the EPO tanks. Typically robust Arctic fronts will put most of us in the teens. Last January, a reporting station 80 miles north of me reported 3 degrees. That’s Arctic air.

I’m El Niño’s we tend to stay below normal but we can achieve it without the traditional upper air delivery that taps the Arctic. That’s not to say we don’t get them.

If I’m not mistaken, our modern benchmark Arctic blast occurred in a La Niña in 1989.

[orangeblood]

The GEFS is adamant about destroying the PV, very consistent in the long range and leaves the extreme January option on the table!! The process should begin in the next 36-48 hours