Texas Winter 2021-2022

[cheezyWXguy]

:spam:

And he is?

He was the one who was famous during the El Reno tornado for telling people in OKC to drive south away from the tornado

I heard about that, because he thought it was heading into the city & he knew that the interior closet would not survive 300 mph winds & a lot of residents were weary from the May 20th Moore EF5 that happened only 11 days before (And the Shawnee EF-4 12 days before)

Still a bad call. Telling people to get on the road to flee a tornado at rush hour when roads were already congested would have been a recipe for maximum casualties had the tornado actually made it into okc

[Ntxw]

We're now also in range of the UKMET to watch for trends as well.

[Brent]

:spam:

He was the one who was famous during the El Reno tornado for telling people in OKC to drive south away from the tornado

I heard about that, because he thought it was heading into the city & he knew that the interior closet would not survive 300 mph winds & a lot of residents were weary from the May 20th Moore EF5 that happened only 11 days before (And the Shawnee EF-4 12 days before)

Still a bad call. Telling people to get on the road to flee a tornado at rush hour when roads were already congested would have been a recipe for maximum casualties had the tornado actually made it into okc

Yeah I think that's the ultimate nightmare scenario for sure like way worse than most because in the other scenarios most people can get to a shelter at least and have a chance

Imagine a tornado in DFW or OKC at rush hour it would be so much worse than some of these recent tornadoes

Tbh I've never respected him ever since that stunt... It wasn't something you should say on TV

[cheezyWXguy]

0z models so far have gone a bit back in the wrong direction, keeping the trough open instead of closing it as it moves across Texas. I’m sure this evolution will be wishy-washy over the next few days before settling one way or the other. One thing to watch though as the event approaches is how much the trough actually digs out west. It does seem that troughs tend to dig a bit more than depicted in some of these cases, as was the case in January. Something to watch and hope for, at least.

[Ntxw]

0z models so far have gone a bit back in the wrong direction, keeping the trough open instead of closing it as it moves across Texas. I’m sure this evolution will be wishy-washy over the next few days before settling one way or the other. One thing to watch though as the event approaches is how much the trough actually digs out west. It does seem that troughs tend to dig a bit more than depicted in some of these cases, as was the case in January. Something to watch and hope for, at least.

It'll be Wednesday or Thursday we can take the runs more seriously.

[txtwister78]

I heard about that, because he thought it was heading into the city & he knew that the interior closet would not survive 300 mph winds & a lot of residents were weary from the May 20th Moore EF5 that happened only 11 days before (And the Shawnee EF-4 12 days before)

Still a bad call. Telling people to get on the road to flee a tornado at rush hour when roads were already congested would have been a recipe for maximum casualties had the tornado actually made it into okc

Yeah I think that's the ultimate nightmare scenario for sure like way worse than most because in the other scenarios most people can get to a shelter at least and have a chance

Imagine a tornado in DFW or OKC at rush hour it would be so much worse than some of these recent tornadoes

Tbh I've never respected him ever since that stunt... It wasn't something you should say on TV

I personally have a different point of view after I heard him respond to some of the criticism in an interview with Spann and others. I think his advice was warranted considering the power of that particular Tornado on that particular day. I think it was given way out in advance so that if people could not find adequate shelter below ground, they had time at that point to react. I think folks also have to consider what had just taken place a few weeks prior in Moore. While being in a car is obviously the last place you want to be during a Tornado, I think that's different than advising people to get out of the way 30- 40 minutes prior to its arrival. So, I would argue in his defense context is important here.

[cheezyWXguy]

Still a bad call. Telling people to get on the road to flee a tornado at rush hour when roads were already congested would have been a recipe for maximum casualties had the tornado actually made it into okc

Yeah I think that's the ultimate nightmare scenario for sure like way worse than most because in the other scenarios most people can get to a shelter at least and have a chance

Imagine a tornado in DFW or OKC at rush hour it would be so much worse than some of these recent tornadoes

Tbh I've never respected him ever since that stunt... It wasn't something you should say on TV

I personally have a different point of view after I heard him respond to some of the criticism in an interview with Spann and others. I think his advice was warranted considering the power of that particular Tornado on that particular day. I think it was given way out in advance so that if people could not find adequate shelter below ground, they had time at that point to react. I think folks also have to consider what had just taken place a few weeks prior in Moore. While being in a car is obviously the last place you want to be during a Tornado, I think that's different than advising people to get out of the way 30- 40 minutes prior to its arrival. So, I would argue in his defense context is important here.

After rewatching that weatherbrains interview I can confidently say my perspective has not changed. That said, I wont get into it because:
1) we are getting too far off topic from the intended discussion
2) I would probably be violating some board rules in regard to met-bashing

[wxman57]

Let's stay on-track with the discussion of Texas Winter weather.

[wxman57]

Speaking of TX winter weather, overnight models are trending toward a dry cold this weekend. GFS, Euro, and Canadian indicate moisture in the cold air will be quite limited Saturday night. UKMET is alone in forecasting 4-6" of snow across north-central to northeast TX. It has a closed upper-low moving across the cold air. Other models have a trof axis. Believe the UKMET at your own risk. At this point, I wouldn't rule out a few snow flurries in the D-FW area Saturday night. That's about it. Lows in the 23-25F range Sunday morning up there and near freezing Monday. Might see a low in the mid to upper 30s here in Houston Sun/Mon. Highs back into the 70s by Wednesday here in Houston.

A big nothing as far as winter weather the following weekend (6Z GFS). However, the 6Z GFS does promise some possible winter weather for D-FW at hour 384. I'm sure we can count on that verifying this time. Meanwhile my Night's Watch crew have been busy fortifying the wall over the past couple of days

[Cpv17]

Speaking of TX winter weather, overnight models are trending toward a dry cold this weekend. GFS, Euro, and Canadian indicate moisture in the cold air will be quite limited Saturday night. UKMET is alone in forecasting 4-6" of snow across north-central to northeast TX. It has a closed upper-low moving across the cold air. Other models have a trof axis. Believe the UKMET at your own risk. At this point, I wouldn't rule out a few snow flurries in the D-FW area Saturday night. That's about it. Lows in the 23-25F range Sunday morning up there and near freezing Monday. Might see a low in the mid to upper 30s here in Houston Sun/Mon. Highs back into the 70s by Wednesday here in Houston.

A big nothing as far as winter weather the following weekend (6Z GFS). However, the 6Z GFS does promise some possible winter weather for D-FW at hour 384. I'm sure we can count on that verifying this time. Meanwhile my Night's Watch crew have been busy fortifying the wall over the past couple of days

So in other words a very boring weather pattern. Lots to look forward to.

I will add though to counter what you just said, when we get decent fronts down here, (this looks to be somewhat of a decent front) operationals are usually 2-4 degrees too warm. Better indicator would be to wait till it’s within the NAM’s range.

[bubba hotep]

12z Canadian has trended Warmer & Drier compared to 0z

But it does looks pretty similar at 500mb to the 12z gfs. The main difference being the trough is a little weaker and more positively tilted. It’s plenty cold enough at the time of passage with temps in the lower 20s, but is too dry for precip

More in line with the +ENSO base state, obviously that can be overcome but I remain skeptical of the Nino looking GFS winter wx producing system.

I figured this would happen but just not so fast lol

Overnight model runs must have gotten the memo that there is a decent atmospheric coupled la nina right now... It's hard to beat the background state of the atmosphere. Still time to shift back but not sure what points to that shift occurring?

[WinterMax]

I'm no expert, but been here in Central Louisiana for almost 60 years and I agree with 57, certainly for us here in my neck of the woods, no hard freeze, maybe a Frost then a warming trend towards more seasonal temps. Nothing burger.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has gotten me a LOT of attention, the first part of the storm has trended WAY South compared to 6z, if that continues, we could have a major storm to start 2022.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is a step back in the right direction at H5 vs 06z through 84hrs.

[harp]

That short wave or vort needs to dig a little further south if I’m not mistaken.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS is a step back in the right direction at H5 vs 06z through 84hrs.

Was going to post this, but I see Ice and you beat me to it. It seems to me like the ultimate evolution of the main trough is depended on how much the leading system pushes off the west coast and how much it cuts off/strengthens. A stronger slower leading system looks to facilitate a deeper slower main trough.

[Ntxw]

Looking at satellite imagery our baja shortwave is coming down the coast of British Columbia and the northern stream wave is hanging back over the Bering. It'll be the Wednesday night or Thursday runs after it settles and makes a move that we can likely trust any solution. The speed, timing, and interaction of the two features is important.

[Tireman4]

Looking at satellite imagery our baja shortwave is coming down the coast of British Columbia and the northern stream wave is hanging back over the Bering. It'll be the Wednesday night or Thursday runs after it settles and makes a move that we can likely trust any solution. The speed, timing, and interaction of the two features is important.

Thank you, as always over the years, for your great analysis in your long range forecasts. We are appreciative of them.

[Cpv17]

Looking at satellite imagery our baja shortwave is coming down the coast of British Columbia and the northern stream wave is hanging back over the Bering. It'll be the Wednesday night or Thursday runs after it settles and makes a move that we can likely trust any solution. The speed, timing, and interaction of the two features is important.

Thank you, as always over the years, for your great analysis in your long range forecasts. We are appreciative of them.

No doubt. Love when Ntxw posts. Very informative.

[orangeblood]

Looking at satellite imagery our baja shortwave is coming down the coast of British Columbia and the northern stream wave is hanging back over the Bering. It'll be the Wednesday night or Thursday runs after it settles and makes a move that we can likely trust any solution. The speed, timing, and interaction of the two features is important.

https://i.imgur.com/7xBg0Vh.gif

Yeah, numerous moving S/Ws to this that still need to be worked out…latest GFS Ens members are still all over the place. One certainty, a big cool down is coming!!