Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

Looking at satellite imagery our baja shortwave is coming down the coast of British Columbia and the northern stream wave is hanging back over the Bering. It'll be the Wednesday night or Thursday runs after it settles and makes a move that we can likely trust any solution. The speed, timing, and interaction of the two features is important.

https://i.imgur.com/7xBg0Vh.gif

Yeah, numerous moving S/Ws to this that still need to be worked out…latest GFS Ens members are still all over the place. One certainty, a big cool down is coming!!

Did become more certain on snow from Kansas & Missouri through the Midwest

[orangeblood]

Another note: Models continue to underestimate the MJO propagation….it’s progressing into the prime winter phases despite the insistence of stagnating in phase 7 by models. explains the volatility in the 10-15 day range, bias should lean cold in the long term

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS has stopped working for some reason, could get a delayed finished run or something?

[Ntxw]

We believe this, it will happen from the UKMET right over wxman57's house .

[wxman57]

We believe this, it will happen from the UKMET right over wxman57's house .

https://i.imgur.com/IsDOjtL.png

It's actually missing me. I'm just below the decimal in the 0.5 over central Harris county. Not sure what the UKMET is smoking...

[txtwister78]

We believe this, it will happen from the UKMET right over wxman57's house .

https://i.imgur.com/IsDOjtL.png

It's actually missing me. I'm just below the decimal in the 0.5 over central Harris county. Not sure what the UKMET is smoking...

I think the UKMET is always smoking to be quite honest.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro wants to have none of the Snow for Oklahoma & Texas, it does get below freezing for Houston, parts of Austin & parts of San Antonio however

[wxman57]

12z Euro wants to have none of the Snow for Oklahoma & Texas, it does get below freezing for Houston, parts of Austin & parts of San Antonio however

That would seem to be the most likely solution for this weekend.

[Kennethb]

Here in Baton Rouge I note that the record highs for today, tomorrow and Thursday were around 80-81 degrees all set in 1984. While I specifically do not recall those warm days, I do know that by the middle of January 1985 it got very cold. We had several highs in the 30's here in Baton Rouge. North Louisiana received a good ice storm with snow on top of the ice. Baton Rouge received traces of snow January 20 and February 1, 2, and 3. McComb had trace snow January 13 and 20 and about an inch February 1. While Winter 2021-2022 will have its own results, just shows that decent cold and wintry precip can still occur down south after a December of record breaking heat.

[AustinTXResident]

These 2 models say no freeze for Austin for this weekend and during the remainder of their runs:
ECMWF ensemble mean
GFS ensemble mean

ACCESS-G predicts a brutally cold 32° Sunday morning. For anyone who survives that: no freezes thereafter. No frozen or freezing precipitation.

The GFS operational predicts a brief and light freeze of 31° Sunday morning. No freezes thereafter. No frozen or freezing precipitation.

The ECMWF operational predicts brief and light freezes of 31° Sunday morning and 30° Monday morning. No freezes thereafter. No frozen or freezing precipitation.

The ICON ensemble mean predicts a barely freezing 32° for Monday morning while the operational goes for a mind-numbing 29°. No other freezes, and no frozen or freezing precipitation.

Only GEM goes intense with the cold (but dry), with lows of 28°, 20°, and 27° beginning Sunday. But then it sobers-up quickly, predicting highs in the 70s-80s thereafter. At least until its next bout of craziness around January 7th.

[AustinTXResident]

Here in Baton Rouge I note that the record highs for today, tomorrow and Thursday were around 80-81 degrees all set in 1984. While I specifically do not recall those warm days, I do know that by the middle of January 1985 it got very cold. We had several highs in the 30's here in Baton Rouge. North Louisiana received a good ice storm with snow on top of the ice. Baton Rouge received traces of snow January 20 and February 1, 2, and 3. McComb had trace snow January 13 and 20 and about an inch February 1. While Winter 2021-2022 will have its own results, just shows that decent cold and wintry precip can still occur down south after a December of record breaking heat.

The record highs were 79°, 79°, and 81°.

4th warmest December on record followed by the 6th coldest January and 18th coldest February on record. The winter of 1984-85 is tied with 2020-21 for the 33rd coldest on record. #1 is 1977-78, although Baton Rouge's climate record has major gaps from the 1890s until 1948.

In January 1985, there were 4 days with highs in the 30s. On the 21st, the low was 9° - 4th coldest on record. The 21st also was the 8th coldest day on record with an average temperature of 20.5°.

On February 2nd, the high was 27°, which is tied for the 7th coldest daily high temperature on record.

December 2021 is going to be in the top 3 of warmest Decembers on record.

[Brent]

Here in Baton Rouge I note that the record highs for today, tomorrow and Thursday were around 80-81 degrees all set in 1984. While I specifically do not recall those warm days, I do know that by the middle of January 1985 it got very cold. We had several highs in the 30's here in Baton Rouge. North Louisiana received a good ice storm with snow on top of the ice. Baton Rouge received traces of snow January 20 and February 1, 2, and 3. McComb had trace snow January 13 and 20 and about an inch February 1. While Winter 2021-2022 will have its own results, just shows that decent cold and wintry precip can still occur down south after a December of record breaking heat.

Yeah January 1985 is one of the legendary cold outbreaks and I've heard it a lot as an analog lately. It was so cold in DC the inauguration was indoors

I will note though December 1984 was extremely wet here... The opposite of this month

It does go to show though that things can flip fast

[AustinTXResident]

Here in Baton Rouge I note that the record highs for today, tomorrow and Thursday were around 80-81 degrees all set in 1984. While I specifically do not recall those warm days, I do know that by the middle of January 1985 it got very cold. We had several highs in the 30's here in Baton Rouge. North Louisiana received a good ice storm with snow on top of the ice. Baton Rouge received traces of snow January 20 and February 1, 2, and 3. McComb had trace snow January 13 and 20 and about an inch February 1. While Winter 2021-2022 will have its own results, just shows that decent cold and wintry precip can still occur down south after a December of record breaking heat.

Yeah January 1985 is one of the legendary cold outbreaks and I've heard it a lot as an analog lately. It was so cold in DC the inauguration was indoors

I will note though December 1984 was extremely wet here... The opposite of this month

It does go to show though that things can flip fast

In Austin, December 1984 had near-average precipitation.

[rwfromkansas]

Not looking at things much yet.

But, getting to look like a brief cold snap will at least break this pattern.

I don’t buy any snow so far.

[Ntxw]

Looking at satellite imagery our baja shortwave is coming down the coast of British Columbia and the northern stream wave is hanging back over the Bering. It'll be the Wednesday night or Thursday runs after it settles and makes a move that we can likely trust any solution. The speed, timing, and interaction of the two features is important.

Thank you, as always over the years, for your great analysis in your long range forecasts. We are appreciative of them.

No doubt. Love when Ntxw posts. Very informative.

Thanks guys for the kind words . I try to add more to things than just modelology. It's quite easy these days to copy paste model output with the vast amount of analytics and be right a greater percent of the time. But what's the fun in that? More and more will turn into that however though with such freely available data anyone can get themselves.

[Brent]

Here in Baton Rouge I note that the record highs for today, tomorrow and Thursday were around 80-81 degrees all set in 1984. While I specifically do not recall those warm days, I do know that by the middle of January 1985 it got very cold. We had several highs in the 30's here in Baton Rouge. North Louisiana received a good ice storm with snow on top of the ice. Baton Rouge received traces of snow January 20 and February 1, 2, and 3. McComb had trace snow January 13 and 20 and about an inch February 1. While Winter 2021-2022 will have its own results, just shows that decent cold and wintry precip can still occur down south after a December of record breaking heat.

Yeah January 1985 is one of the legendary cold outbreaks and I've heard it a lot as an analog lately. It was so cold in DC the inauguration was indoors

I will note though December 1984 was extremely wet here... The opposite of this month

It does go to show though that things can flip fast

In Austin, December 1984 had near-average precipitation.

Yeah I'm not sure what happened but apparently it's our wettest December ever at over 8 inches. This year obviously has been the total opposite way below normal

[Ntxw]

Yeah January 1985 is one of the legendary cold outbreaks and I've heard it a lot as an analog lately. It was so cold in DC the inauguration was indoors

I will note though December 1984 was extremely wet here... The opposite of this month

It does go to show though that things can flip fast

In Austin, December 1984 had near-average precipitation.

Yeah I'm not sure what happened but apparently it's our wettest December ever at over 8 inches. This year obviously has been the total opposite way below normal

The 80s especially during mid period of the decade was a very +PDO regime which coincides with an overall wetter times. This year we are amidst a deep -PDO which can account for some of the extensive dry periods since late Spring that will likely continue into 2022.

Code: Select all

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Dec 1984   0.48
Nov 1984   0.54
Oct 1984   0.43
Sep 1984   0.18
Aug 1984   0.01

Code: Select all

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Nov 2021   -2.71
Oct 2021   -3.15
Sep 2021   -1.99
Aug 2021   -0.92

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS clearly demonstrates that the speed of the storm system is also a factor if we're going to get snow at around New Years

[AustinTXResident]

The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook (for January 3-7) calls for above normal temperatures for all of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana and for all of Oklahoma except the extreme northeast.

"The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Yesterday's 12z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 7, and 10% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8. ... FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to excellent model agreement on most features...."

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

[AustinTXResident]

In Austin, December 1984 had near-average precipitation.

Yeah I'm not sure what happened but apparently it's our wettest December ever at over 8 inches. This year obviously has been the total opposite way below normal

The 80s especially during mid period of the decade was a very +PDO regime which coincides with an overall wetter times. This year we are amidst a deep -PDO which can account for some of the extensive dry periods since late Spring that will likely continue into 2022.

Code: Select all

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Dec 1984   0.48
Nov 1984   0.54
Oct 1984   0.43
Sep 1984   0.18
Aug 1984   0.01

Code: Select all

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Nov 2021   -2.71
Oct 2021   -3.15
Sep 2021   -1.99
Aug 2021   -0.92

Austin had below average precipitation during the mid-1980s.